Last week Dee Gordon was traded to the Seattle Mariners along with $1 million in international slot money for three prospects from the Marlins: Pitcher Nick Neidert, Shortstop Chris Torres, and Pitcher Robert Dugger. Neidert, 21, has the highest ceiling of the three and is closest to reaching the majors. He finished the season with 23.1 innings in Double-A so he’s still a year or two away from the big leagues. That being said, we can put these prospects aside for 2018 and focus on the trade of Dee Gordon and the fantasy impacts.
I’m sure Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto and the rest of the club had aspirations of landing the number one offseason prize in Shohei Ohtani but alas, he opted for the LA Trouts. The Mariners still may have some moves up their sleeves, but let’s dive into what they do have in Dee Gordon for 2018.
Mariners’ Plan for Dee Gordon
On the surface, it’s a bit of an odd move considering Gordon is a second baseman and the Mariners have eight-time All-Star Robinson Cano at second base. Well, their plan is to convert Dee Gordon from a second baseman to a center fielder. I guess the Mariners figure Gordon is fast and a good athlete so he’ll be fine manning center field. They’re right, Gordon is fast, he’s actually exceptionally fast. He ranked fourth in the majors in average sprint speed per baseballsavant.com behind only Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, and Bradley Zimmer. Speaking of Billy Hamilton – who is also a converted infielder (played shortstop in the minors) – he made the switch before he got to the major leagues as a 23-year-old, not at age 30 (Dee Gordon’s age in 2018). A better example of an infield to outfield conversion is Ian Desmond who also converted from shortstop to the outfield at age 30. He’s been a little below average as an outfielder but he hasn’t embarrassed himself either. Dee is faster than Desmond so I think he’ll be somewhere between Hamilton and Desmond defensively, meaning he should play well enough to stay in the lineup everyday playing center field.
Fantasy Impacts
Gordon stole 60 bases in 2017 (that’s more than six teams) in 695 PA. Over the last four seasons, his 162-game average is 65 steals. He’s only one of three players to steal more than 40 bases in 2017. Steals are becoming more and more scarce and that’s where the bulk of Gordon’s value lies. I mentioned his sprint speed earlier, and even though he will play the 2018 season at age 30, I don’t see him slowing down much if at all. The move to the outfield only adds to his value for 2018 because he will still maintain his 2B eligibility. The OF is just a bonus for roster flexibility. Beyond 2018, he may just have his OF eligibility which will decrease his value a bit. That’s fine, but right now we are focused on the upcoming season. Here are his end of season ranks at second base excluding 2016, when Gordon missed half of the season due to the PED suspension: 2014 – 3rd, 2015 – 1st, and 2017 – 4th. In all of those seasons, he’s finished inside the top 50 overall.
In 2017, the Mariners were in the middle of the pack in terms of steals and attempts. Only two players had more than 12 steals on the 2017 Mariners, Jean Segura, and Jarrod Dyson, and the latter is no longer on the team. Dee Gordon is basically an upgraded version of Jarrod Dyson and also will play every day. So I believe they will let Gordon run wild. He will hit leadoff in front Segura, Cano, and Nelson Cruz. Cano and Cruz are big-time run producers but are also past their prime and showing small signs of decline. As long as those veterans don’t fall off a cliff offensively, his run totals should be very good provided he can keep up his elevated BABIP. Given his speed, heavy groundball rate over 55%, and high contact rate around 87%, he has very high floor regarding his batting average. In 2016 he hit .269 with a .319 BABIP. To me, that’s his floor. Unfortunately, Gordon’s upside for steals will be limited due to his very low 4.5% career walk rate. I don’t need to get into the power numbers because his career high for home runs is four, and based on his batted ball profile and new stadium – which isn’t much better than in Miami – I can’t project more than one or two.
2018 Projections
I mentioned the elevated BABIP. In 2017 when he hit .308, his BABIP was .354 and his career BABIP is .345. I’m going to have a hard time projecting a BABIP that high for 2018, so I’ve got him hitting .294 with an OBP of .332. Both a slight regression from 2017. I do like Cano and Cruz hitting behind him but in 2017, he was hitting behind Stanton and Ozuna who both had career years. I’m taking the under on the 114 runs he scored in 2017. With a lower OBP, I’ll give Gordon 95 runs. He can get lucky and run into two home runs. Because he’s in the AL now, he has a chance for a few more RBIs up to 44 from 33 in 2017.
Now for the steals. He will run wild in 2018, but if he isn’t successful on near 80% of his attempts, the Mariners could limit his “forever” green light. I’ll say he ends up with 56 steals in 2018 for a final line of .294/95/2/44/56. That’s no Trea Turner, but it’s not more than two rounds behind him. I have him ranked 3rd behind Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez at 2B (fourth if Anthony Rizzo is eligible in your league).
Overall, I would have him somewhere between 30-35 and a solid late third-round pick.
Max Freeze is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Max, check out his archive and follow him @FreezeStats.
