Welcome to those of you who have been bottom dwellers in season-long leagues this year. It’s nice of you to join our DFS meeting, where we’ve been winning some money. I mean, we had Julio Jones in the lineup last week, so it didn’t really matter who else we had. In all seriousness, most of our players had a big week and had you stuck by the core outlined, you definitely won your head-to-heads, double-ups, and 50/50’s.
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Speaking of that, I always find it necessary to let you guys know that these players may not be great plays for tournaments. Not that you can’t play them in tournament lineups, but in order to take down most tournaments, you need to take on some risky players. That’s not our goal here. Our goal is to find the most value on the board with players who have a high floor. We don’t care what their ownership is going to be, which is something you should care about for tournaments. While we can’t build the entire lineup for you, these are the players you should consider building your cash-lineup around.
Quarterbacks
Philip Rivers (vs. CLE) $7,000
If you’re one of those who wants to pay-up at the quarterback position, you really can’t go wrong with Rivers against a Browns defense that’s now allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 9-of-11 games, including three or more in three different games. The Browns don’t bring much pressure, and even if they did, Rivers is now the least sacked quarterback in terms of sacks per dropback. His protection has been phenomenal, his connection with Keenan Allen is live and well, and the Browns really struggle against tight ends, who he loves. It also helps that this game will be played in Los Angeles, so we don’t have the weather concerns we do about most east coast teams. He’s about as safe as they come in cash, though I don’t love him in tournaments.
Trevor Siemian (at MIA) $4,800
Before you completely dismiss Siemian as a play, you need to hear me out. When playing in cash-games, I often aim for the 2.5x multiplier. How you do that is take the player’s price and multiply it by 0.0025, and it’ll let you know what you’re looking to get out of that player (as a minimum). Siemian’s price tag of $4,800 would mean he needs 12.0 points to hit value. Siemian has played in eight games this year and has hit that number in four of them, including two other games with 10.9 and 11.3 points. The Dolphins have been one of the league’s worst pass defenses as of late, allowing 16 passing touchdowns in their last six games, including 10 of them in their last three games. It also doesn’t hurt that they just lost their best edge-rusher William Hayes for the year. Knowing that the Broncos are struggling to run the ball, Siemian is the guy if you want to save some cash for other positions.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (vs. IND) $7,800
We’ve officially reached the point where people have forgot how good Fournette was earlier this season before dealing with his ankle injury. He’s finally been removed from the injury report and is practicing in full. The Jaguars are coming off a bad loss to the Blaine Gabbert-led Cardinals and a large part of that was because they trusted Blake Bortles. Look for them to get back to their running ways against a Colts team that’s allowed seven top-12 performances to running backs this year, which is second-most in the league. Before his ankle injury, here are Fournette’s fantasy finishes: RB4, RB14, RB13, RB7, RB2, and RB9. Not only do you get the high-floor by playing him, but you also get the high-ceiling.
Jordan Howard (vs. SF) $6,500
What more could you ask for with Howard? The Bears are at home, they are a favorite, and they are playing against a 49ers team that allows an NFL-high 33.4 carries per game to opposing run games, which is nearly two more carries than any other team. We know that John Fox is coaching for his job, so look for him to go back to the run, similar to the way he did against the Ravens back in Week 6 when Howard ran the ball 36 times for 167 yards. Howard has also played much better at home this year, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns, compared to just 3.6 yards per carry and one touchdown on the road. Going by the multiplier, we need him to score 16.25 points, a number the 49ers have allowed to seven different running backs.
Duke Johnson (at LAC) $4,800
This one might shock some of you, but you have to play into the PPR format. While debating between Johnson and Rex Burkhead, I took a look at how consistent Johnson has been throughout the year, and decided he was the better of the two. He’s now scored at least 10.7 DraftKings points in eight of the last 10 games, including six games with 13.1 or more points. Most don’t realize that he’s finished as a top-15 PPR running back in six of his last nine games. The game-script against the Chargers figures to be good for him, on top of the fact that Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon will be covered by Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams, two of the league’s better cornerbacks. If the Chargers have a weakness, it’s against the run, though it’s unlikely we see Isaiah Crowell out there if the Browns are down two touchdowns. There have been four running backs in the last four games to total at least five receptions against the Chargers, which leads me to believe that Johnson is a safe cheap play at the RB position.
On the fringe: Adrian Peterson (vs. LAR) $4,800, Marshawn Lynch (vs. NYG) $4,800, Kenyan Drake (vs. DEN) $4,900
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins (at TEN) $7,300
You really can’t go wrong paying this much for a guy who has now seen 12.3 targets per game under Tom Savage. Most were concerned about the drop-off from Deshaun Watson to Savage, but Hopkins has actually averaged 99.5 yards per game under Savage, while he averaged 86.6 yards under Watson. This is a Titans secondary that he tormented for 10 catches, 107 yards, and a touchdown back in Week 4. When paying up for a wide receiver, you want guaranteed production, and Hopkins has delivered at least 14.3 DraftKings points in 10-of-11 games this year. That’s a ridiculous floor.
Mike Evans (at GB) $7,100
I’ve fortunately landed the top wide receiver in each of the last two weeks with Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, and this week I’m saying it’s Evans’ time to shine. The Packers cornerback duo of Davon House and Kevin King don’t have a chance against someone of his skill level, as they’ve allowed a combined quarterback rating of 103.8 in coverage this year. There have been 18 different wide receivers to finish top-24 against them this year, six wide receivers to top 100 yards, and three wide receivers to score multiple touchdowns. The only thing that can slow Evans down is the weather, though it seems like it’ll be right around 50 degrees on Sunday in Green Bay.
Demaryius Thomas (at MIA) $5,300
There will be a lot of cash-game players slotting Emmanuel Sanders in their lineup this week, and while he’s not a bad play at all, I believe Thomas is the safer bet. Sanders is still coming off his ankle injury that’s limited him to 30 yards or less in three of his last four games. Thomas doesn’t ever score with Siemian, but he’s averaged 8.8 targets per game, 5.4 receptions, and 65.7 yards. He will see Xavien Howard in coverage the majority of the time, and he’s been struggling as of late, allowing three touchdowns in his last three games, after allowing just one over the first nine weeks of the season. He doesn’t offer you a massive ceiling like I think Sanders does, but he offers you a safe floor.
On the fringe: Stefon Diggs (at ATL) $6,200, Marqise Lee (vs. IND) $5,200
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (at NYJ) $7,000
If you’re paying up at the tight end position this week, Kelce is the one to go with. When looking at the Jets defense and that they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, that’s nice, but knowing that Rob Gronkowski (the closest comp to Kelce) destroyed them for 83 yards and two touchdowns makes you feel even better. Not just him, but Austin Hooper and Charles Clay each saw at least six targets and finished with over 45 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs have struggled to run the ball and the Jets have held opposing run-game’s in check, meaning the Chiefs will need to lean on the passing game. You don’t need to pay up (I’d prefer not to), but if you want to, he’s your guy.
Hunter Henry (vs. CLE) $4,700
It’s been somewhat of a rollercoaster year for Henry, but one thing that I noticed is that he started to struggle as Mike Williams started to get more involved. As soon as Williams went down in Week 12, Henry got back on the production train, totaling 76 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. The love for him this week comes down to his opponent, though. The Browns have not only been the fifth-worst team against tight ends this year, but they were the worst team against them last year. It’s a systematic problem that they can’t seem to fix. Of the 11 tight ends who have played against the Browns, there have been just two who have scored less than 10.4 DraftKings points. When playing most tight ends, you have to deal with volatility, but as those numbers indicate, Henry should be safe at the very least. We know he offers you 80-yard, two-touchdown upside.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
