Last week was a good one for those who came to this article, as it’s been the majority of the time. While there are a lot of people chasing millions in DFS, we’re just here looking to make a consistent profit. My brother asked me the other day how DFS has gone for me and my response was, “Eh, not bad. Have had some good weeks and some bad weeks, but am up about 85 percent on the year.” Before anything, you should know that my brother is a financial advisor. Of course he laughed and said that he wishes he had the problems I did. Most of his clients are chasing 6-8 percent over the year, while I’m talking about 85 percent over a span of four months. When you put it in perspective, we’ve done well.
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How does that happen? It happens by playing in cash-games a lot more than playing in tournaments. If you’re unaware of the lingo, cash-games are ones that you simply need to finish in the top-half of players to almost double your money. We’re talking about 50/50’s, double ups, and head-to-head matchups. If you want to play in tournaments and win a ton of money at once, we have other articles that can help you. But this article focuses on the best cash-game plays of the week, giving you a solid core of players to build around. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @MikeTagliereNFL in case there are weather concerns and we need to move off a player, which I’ll often tweet out Sunday morning. Let’s talk my favorite plays for Week 15.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton (vs. GB) $6,400
When going by the 2.5X method, Newton comes across as one of the safest cash-game plays on the board. Not only is his matchup against the Packers a good one for his passing numbers, but Newton may hit value with his legs alone. He’s rushed for at least 44 yards in seven of his last eight games, including four games with 70 or more. The Packers have allowed five different quarterbacks rush for at least 15 yards, which is more than the norm. That’s part of the reason that 9-of-13 quarterbacks who’ve played against the Packers have scored at least 14.9 fantasy points, including our cash quarterback last week, DeShone Kizer. The Packers don’t have a No. 1 cornerback to stick on Devin Funchess, and they allow the seventh-most receiving yards to running backs, playing right into the Newton/Christian McCaffrey connection. He’s a quarterback who comes with an ultra-high floor, but also offers you a massive ceiling.
Blake Bortles (vs. HOU) $5,700
This is the second time Bortles has made it into our cash-game article this year, with the first one coming against the Colts where he threw for 330 yards and a touchdown. He’s been playing excellent as of late, completing 44-of-62 passes (71 percent) for 577 yards and four touchdowns over the last two weeks against the Colts and Seahawks. The additional weapon in Dede Westbrook has proven to be a massive boost to this offense, and it should give you more security to know that Leonard Fournette is now apparently dealing with a quad injury. Since losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in Week 5, the Texans have allowed 18 touchdowns through the air in nine games, including at least 15.1 fantasy points to every quarterback except Kevin Hogan and Joe Flacco. I’m not going to pretend that Bortles is risk-free, but his price wouldn’t be this low if he was. The 14.3 points he needs to hit value is a number he’s now hit in six of his last seven games.
Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell (vs. NE) $9,300
It’s been a long time since we’ve been able to use Bell in the cash lineup, simply because he’s been on primetime in each of his last four games. There will be a lot of people playing him this week, but you don’t want to be left out of this party. The Patriots have allowed a league-high 4.94 yards per carry to running backs, and have also allowed the second-most receiving yardage to running backs. Most saw what Kenyan Drake was able to do against them last week, and that was behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. The Patriots defense is extremely thin right now and this game has snow in the forecast, making Bell a no-brainer.
Kenyan Drake (at BUF) $5,800
They haven’t adjusted his price to the correct tier just yet, and that’s because his game was on Monday night last week. If that game would’ve taken place before the pricing was done, Drake would be up near the $7,000 range. The Bills pass defense has looked better as of late, allowing just two touchdowns over the last three games, but their run defense has been struggling for quite a while. They have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns in their last six games, so maybe Drake finds the end zone this week after being robbed of it last week when he totaled nearly 200 total yards without one. Even if Damien Williams plays this week, it’s hard to see the Dolphins going away from Drake. He’s a steal at his current price, which will go up next week.
Alex Collins (vs. CLE) $5,000
Anytime you can get a workhorse running back who is getting 18-plus touches per week for $5,000, you have to take advantage. Over the last six games, Collins is averaging 18.8 touches per game, and that’s with both Danny Woodhead and Javorius Allen available. With the way he’s been playing, there’s no way they can pull him off the field, which is why Woodhead and Allen have combined for just 31 carries over the last four weeks, while Collins has 69 of them. The game-script figures to be great in this one, too, as the Browns have still yet to win a single game. Collins is literally everything you look for in DFS. He’s at home, heavily-favored, and guaranteed a lot of work. After starting the year strong, the Browns have started to slip and have allowed four rushing touchdowns over their last six games. Needing just 12.5 points to hit value, Collins is a steal.
Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas (vs. NYJ) $7,400
If you’ve played Thomas in cash before, he’s likely never let you down. I say that because he’s scored at least 13.9 DraftKings points in 10-of-13 games this year, and is one of the more consistent options in all of football. Knowing the Jets possess a solid run defense, maybe we’ll see the two-touchdown game we’ve been waiting for. Since their bye week, Morris Claiborne has been struggling against some top-tier wide receivers. Devin Funchess went for 7/108/0, Tyreek Hill went for 6/185/2, and Demaryius Thomas went for 8/93/1 last week. Those are some mighty good numbers out of wide receivers who are far superior to Thomas from a talent standpoint.
Jamison Crowder (vs. ARI) $5,600
This one comes down to process of elimination with the Redskins skill-position players, as Josh Doctson will be covered by Patrick Peterson, Ryan Grant will see Tramon Williams who has done a fine job replacing Justin Bethel, and then Samaje Perine should have a tough time running on a defense that allows sub-3.5 yards per carry. If we’re expecting Kirk Cousins to move the ball (we are), he’s going to have to do it through Crowder, who will be matched up with Tyrann Mathieu, a former superstar who has now allowed a 71 percent catch-rate over the last two years. Crowder himself has averaged 9.2 targets per game since Week 8, making him a high-floor, low-risk option.
Chris Hogan (at PIT) $5,500
This is one of the times where you need to pay attention on Sunday, as there is apparently a chance of snow in the Pittsburgh forecast. If there’s just a light dusting of snow expected, that’s fine, as we’ve seen Tom Brady throw well in the snow before. Hogan got his legs back under him last week, and the perception on him this week would be much different if he’d not been ruled out of bounds on his touchdown catch. He’ll match-up with Coty Sensabaugh, a cornerback who wouldn’t be starting for the majority of NFL teams, but the Steelers need him to because of the injury to Joe Haden. Over the course of his career, he’s allowed a 104.4 QB Rating when targeted in coverage, which would be the second-highest mark of all quarterbacks in 2017, behind only Brady. It’s a matchup that Brady will know to target. Don’t forget that Hogan was a WR1 before going down with his injury.
Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski (at PIT) $7,300
If you’re paying up at tight end this week (though it will be hard to), Gronkowski would be the choice for me. Some will reference career stats against a certain team, and while most of them are completely useless because of all the personnel and coaching changes, the Steelers have remained somewhat the same throughout Gronkowski’s last five years. In the games against them, he’s averaged 6.0 receptions for 99.2 yards and 1.6 touchdowns. Returning from his one-game suspension, Brady will find his No. 1 option early and often.
Charles Clay (vs. MIA) $3,000
As crazy as it sounds, Clay is a good option this week at just $3,000. When going down to this price range, all he needs to do in order to hit value is total 7.5 PPR points, which is something like four catches for 35 yards. The Dolphins have allowed 11 different tight ends to score 8.1 or more PPR points against them, including seven of them with 11.1 or more points. Clay will have Tyrod Taylor back under center, which is a good thing, as those two have shown rapport all season. Knowing that Jordan Matthews and Kelvin Benjamin are out, the targets have to go somewhere, and Taylor won’t be able to scramble as much with his knee less than 100 percent. This is strictly a floor-play – don’t expect him to win you the contest or anything.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
