We were let down by a few of our studs in Week 14, so if you survived your first playoff matchup, well done. That championship belt, trophy, or large stack of jellybeans is so close that we can almost taste it. Making the right decision is obviously critical at this time of year.

If you’ve been reading this article all year, you know how it goes. I’ll discuss one start or sit from each position, which represents a player I have ranked significantly higher or lower than the expert consensus rankings. We’re only talking the questionable calls here – guys who fall as borderline potential starters in standard-sized leagues.

I’ll also add a few other names that I am higher or lower on than the expert consensus. That will give you plenty of opportunities to yell at me for those decisions. Note: if you want to see my rankings for the week, they are pinned on my Twitter page at @danharris80. They will show you exactly how many spots higher or lower I am than the ECR on every player.

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Quarterbacks

Start

Case Keenum (MIN v. CIN): ECR of 12
I have a team for which I’ve been starting Keenum for some time but have also been stashing Aaron Rodgers all year. And although I have Rodgers ranked higher this week, because the projections for my playoff matchup have me as a heavy favorite, I’m having a hard time choosing who to start at quarterback. That’s because Case Keenum is . . . a really safe fantasy start. Congratulations, universe – you win.  Seriously, over his last six games, Keenum has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes just once, and that was against a very tough Rams defense where he still threw for 280 yards and ran for another 20. He’s certainly not the flashiest starter out there, but everyone other than Mike Zimmer confidently knows that Keenum is almost guaranteed to put up above-average numbers at the quarterback position. The Bengals have been relatively tough on opposing quarterbacks on the season, but with Adam Jones out for the season, Vontaze Burfict potentially out for the game, and the Bengals just generally looking like they’ve given up, it’s no longer a matchup to be feared. Keenum makes an excellent QB1 play for me this week.

Others I’m higher on: Dak Prescott (DAL at OAK), Alex Smith (KC v. LAC)

Sit

Matt Ryan (ATL at TB): ECR of 10
Matt Ryan is a fine NFL quarterback. But even in six-point per passing touchdown leagues, he has surpassed 20 fantasy points just twice this season, and just barely both times. He’s thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in eight of 13 games this year and has surpassed 300 yards passing just three times. The Bucs are an excellent matchup for opposing quarterbacks, sure, and they allow the most passing yards per game. But Ryan had just 18 fantasy points against them in Week 12, so it’s not as if we can expect this game to be some sort of magical cure. I don’t view Ryan as an absolute must-sit option, but as the low-floor, low-ceiling play that he’s been this season, he’s certainly outside my top-10.

Others I’m lower on: Philip Rivers (LAC at KC), Jimmy Garoppolo (SF at TEN)

Running Backs

Start

Mike Davis (SEA v. LAR): ECR of 25
Davis’s numbers against the Jaguars (66 yards on 15 carries) don’t jump out at you, but especially because he was against such a tough defense, they should make you take notice. Also, if you watched the game, it was hard not to be impressed with Davis, who ran incredibly hard and decisively. Although Davis suffered a rib injury in the game, Pete Carroll says he’s moving well, and it looks like he’ll play against the Rams. The matchup is outstanding, as Los Angeles has allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs and allows 4.7 yards per carry to the position. Assuming Davis is a full-go for the game, he’s an easy RB2 for me rather than the borderline option that most view him as.

Others I’m higher on: Giovani Bernard (CIN at MIN) (assuming Joe Mixon is out), Samaje Perine (WAS v. ARI), Kerwynn Williams (ARI at WAS)

Sit

Isaiah Crowell (CLE v. BAL): ECR of 26
Crowell has run extremely well lately and gained a season-high 131 yards from scrimmage against the Packers last week. Josh Gordon‘s return has been a tide that has lifted all offensive boats for the Browns, including the running game. The Ravens aren’t that imposing of a matchup at this point – they’ve allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs since Week 10, and have allowed two rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs in each of the last two games. But make no mistake, the Ravens NEED this game, and their newfound offensive efficiency suggests that the Browns will be looking at a negative game script on Sunday. That doesn’t bode particularly well for Crowell, and he makes much more of a low-end Flex play for me than a borderline RB2.

Others I’m lower on: Christian McCaffrey (CAR v. GB), Jay Ajayi (PHI at NYG), Alfred Morris (DAL at OAK)

Wide Receivers

Start

Mohamed Sanu (ATL at TB): ECR of 29
Sure, Matt Ryan is a sit for me, but as last week showed, Sanu can still succeed in a game where Ryan doesn’t have a great day. Sanu has quietly earned a more prominent role in the Falcons offense in recent weeks, averaging nearly six catches on more than seven targets for 63 yards over the last three games, including a touchdown. Against the Bucs in Week 12, Sanu saw 10 targets and had eight receptions, and there’s really no reason to expect him to be less involved on Monday night against the eminently beatable Robert McClain. The Bucs have allowed the most receptions, yards, and fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, all by a large margin, and Sanu should find plenty of room to do some damage.

Others I’m higher on: Marquise Goodwin (SF v. TEN), Robby Anderson (NYJ at NO), Mike Wallace (BAL at CLE)

Sit

Jarvis Landry (MIA at BUF): ECR of 24
It was quite the Monday night performance for Landry against the Patriots, as he scored two touchdowns and likely single-handedly saved (and ended) a few fantasy seasons. Landry already has eight receiving touchdowns on the season, far surpassing his previous career-high of just five, and his nose for the end zone and high target share have made up for his meager yards per catch average. The issue for Landry from a fantasy perspective this week is just that, however – he’s become essentially touchdown-reliant (in standard leagues, at least), because he more often than not fails to crack the 50-yards-receiving threshold. That could be a problem this week against a Bills team that allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and has allowed just seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers, third-fewest in the league. Landry is still an obvious play in PPR leagues, but in standard leagues I’d consider him more of a mediocre Flex play.

Others I’m lower on: Alshon Jeffery (PHI at NYG), Sterling Shepard (NYG v. PHI), Chris Hogan (NE at PIT)

Tight Ends

I’m all about the Monday night game here, if for no other reason than to ensure that I have plenty of reason to watch the game even if all my fantasy seasons come to an end on Sunday! I’m a bit higher on both Austin Hooper (ATL at TB): ECR of 20 and O.J. Howard (TB v. ATL): ECR of 19, though I’m not running out to start either. The Bucs are very tough on tight ends for the season, but that’s more about the quality (or lack thereof) of the tight ends they’ve faced, and Eric Ebron did quite the number on them last week. It’s not an ideal matchup, but with Hooper seeing four or five targets every game consistently, I like him a little more than 20th. And the Bucs appear to want to see what they have in Howard, and he’s been pretty consistently involved for the last four weeks. Again, you’re not necessarily starting either guy, but I certainly am not as pessimistic as the ECR. As for Cameron Brate (TB v. ATL): ECR of 16, I just don’t see how anyone could even be considering him close to a streamer even in deeper leagues. He has seven catches over his last six games and although two of them went for touchdowns, that’s pretty much his only chance at a decent fantasy day at this point. It’s not a chance I’d be willing to take anywhere.

Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.