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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 16

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 16

This is it. If you’re in a sane fantasy league, this is the culmination of nearly four months of sweat, tears, and hard work. Everything comes down to this. As my old friend Dan Fouts would say, it’s the last game of the year, Brent. Can’t hold anything back now.

If you’ve been reading this article all year, you know how it goes. I’ll discuss one start or sit from each position, which represents a player I have ranked significantly higher or lower than the expert consensus rankings. We’re only talking the questionable calls here – guys who fall as borderline potential starters in standard-sized leagues.

I’ll also add a few other names that I am higher or lower on than the expert consensus. That will give you plenty of opportunities to yell at me for those decisions. Note: if you want to see my rankings for the week, they are pinned on my Twitter page at @danharris80. They will show you exactly how many spots higher or lower I am than the ECR on every player.

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Quarterbacks

Start

Alex Smith (KC v. MIA): ECR of 8
Spoiler alert – Smith is not a borderline start this week, as he’s firmly in the top-12 in ECR. But as of this writing, there’s simply not much of a difference between my rankings of almost any borderline start and the expert consensus rankings. I mean, being one spot higher on Joe Flacco doesn’t really make much of a difference. But from questions I’ve gotten this week, it does seem like fantasy owners are choosing between Smith and other top options, so it makes sense to write about him here. Smith has played extremely well lately, even if it hasn’t always translated to fantasy points (though he’s surpassed 20 fantasy points in two of his last three games). The Dolphins defense is much worse on the road, allowing an average of 27 points as compared to just 20 at home, and they’ve allowed 35.5, 20.7, and 23.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in their last three road games. The Chiefs have an implied total of the Dolphins’ exact average points allowed on the road – 27 –  and while that could all come from Kareem Hunt having another exceptional effort, I’m willing to bet that Smith gets more of a piece of it. I’m starting him over nearly everyone other than the truly elite options this week.

Others I’m higher on: Dak Prescott (DAL v. SEA), Joe Flacco (BAL v. IND) (told you!).

Sit

Philip Rivers (LAC at NYJ): ECR of 7
Again, Rivers is certainly a top-12 quarterback this week, but he’s a bit more of a low-end option for me. The Jets have certainly not been great against opposing quarterbacks on the season, but they’ve generally tightened up lately, allowing just one of the last five quarterbacks they’ve faced to surpass 18 fantasy points.  Rivers has been excellent of late (other than last week when he laid an egg against the Chiefs, as he historically does), but this is his second consecutive road game and it’s on the East Coast. He’s also lost one of his most reliable targets in Hunter Henry. If I own Rivers, it’s doubtful I have another quarterback on my roster who I’d start over him. But I’m not as giddy about the matchup as the general consensus appears to be.

Others I’m lower on: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT at HOU), Jameis Winston (TB at CAR).

Running Backs

Start

Peyton Barber (TB at CAR): ECR of 32
Being totally honest, there are few positive signs for Barber right now. He had a chance to really make a statement against the Falcons on Monday night when Doug Martin was surprisingly inactive, but fumbled it away, literally and figuratively. Martin should be back this week and the Panthers are very tough on opposing running backs, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the position. But Thomas Davis is suspended for this game, and that will likely have a huge impact on Carolina’s run defense. And, though Martin should return this week, he’s been awful this season and is surely not part of the Bucs’ future. In other words, I’d expect Barber to be the starter and get a fair amount of work against an opponent that should be significantly weaker than it has been this season. That’s enough to tip the scales for me over several similar Flex-worthy backs.

Others I’m higher on: Carlos Hyde (SF v. JAC), Bilal Powell (NYJ v. LAC)

Sit

Isaiah Crowell (CLE at CHI): ECR of 28
I like Crowell as a player, and he’s actually run extremely well lately. But there are several bad signs for him this weekend at Chicago. The Bears generally have a solid run defense, and they play much better at home. Crowell has reached eight fantasy points just four times this season, and only twice in games where he didn’t score a touchdown. Unfortunately for him, the Bears haven’t allowed a touchdown to a running back in their last five games, and have only allowed two running backs to surpass 75 yards rushing all season. The Bears are substantial favorites in this game, which means we could see a negative game script, and that usually results in Crowell seeing 10 touches or fewer. In a championship game, I can’t imagine I’d roll with Crowell as a Flex, and certainly not as a high-end one as he appears to be considered.

Others I’m lower on: Jay Ajayi (PHI av. OAK), Jamaal Williams (GB v. MIN), Theo Riddick (DET at CIN)

Wide Receivers

Start

Marquise Goodwin (SF v. JAC): ECR of 30
I’ll be honest, I’m terrified to start Goodwin this week. It’s obviously not about his performance, as he’s been elite with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, especially in PPR leagues, with 24 catches for 319 yards in three games with Jimmy G. But Jacksonville is incredibly tough on opposing wide receivers, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. We’ve heard enough about Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye so that you don’t need me to explain what makes this matchup so difficult. But Jacksonville has shown some minor cracks lately, allowing a touchdown to a wide receiver in four straight games, with six touchdowns total over that span. Touchdowns aren’t Goodwin’s main thing, but he’s about as much of a big-play threat as we’ve seen lately, and as T.Y. Hilton and Tyler Lockett have shown in recent weeks, Jacksonville is susceptible to those. Goodwin is still a WR3 for me, but I’d consider him more of a strong one.

Others I’m higher on: Jamison Crowder (WAS v. DEN), Robby Anderson (NYJ v. LAC)

Sit

Dede Westbrook (SF v. JAC): ECR of 27
The fact that I’m writing about Westbrook as a sit shocks me, because I like him this week. I think he’s got every opportunity to bounce back from last week’s surprising dud with Marqise Lee out. But apparently, I like him less than the industry, though I still have him as a WR3, of course. The biggest thing for me is that I think the casual fantasy player thinks about the 49ers and immediately goes to, “Terrible defense.” But that’s really not the case anymore, especially against wide receivers. They’ve actually allowed the 10th-fewest receptions to the position, and the bulk of their fantasy points allowed is because they’ve given up 14 touchdowns to wide receivers, 10th-most in the league. Westbrook has just one touchdown this season, so it’s not really something I’m ready to rely on.  It wouldn’t shock me in any way if Westbrook had a huge game. I’m not particularly down on him – again, still a WR3 – and I like him better than Keelan Cole. But I am lower on him than ECR, and them’s the reasons.

Others I’m lower on: Josh Gordon (CLE at CHI), Martavis Bryant (PIT at HOU), Sterling Shepard (NYG at ARI), Cooper Kupp (LAR at TEN) (Note: This is a lot of clarification this week, but I actually like all of the guys listed here and am starting a few myself this week. Just think there are a lot of very good options this week, so much so that I have these guys lower in my rankings than the ECR. You stop yelling at me that I told you to bench Josh Gordon!).

Tight Ends

As always, not too much to say about tight ends at this point. But I like Cameron Brate (TB at CAR): ECR of 13 a bit more than most this week, as the absence of O.J. Howard, DeSean Jackson, and Thomas Davis should again bring him back to relevance – he’s a top-10 option for me.  And I’m a little lower on Jason Witten (DAL v. SEA): ECR of 11 who just isn’t involved in the offense much these days and goes against a Seahawks defense that, though struggling, has clamped down on tight ends in recent weeks.



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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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