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Fantasy Football Target Analysis: Week 14

Fantasy Football Target Analysis: Week 14

Week 14 was a rough slate for season-long fantasy players, as major injuries mounted and undoubtedly ended countless fantasy seasons or seriously hampered the championship chances of many more. Unfortunately, those are the breaks that so often come along with being a fantasy football fanatic.

For those of us still alive in our fantasy playoffs this week, all we can do is dust ourselves off and start preparing harder than ever. With the vast majority of teams now facing elimination with a loss, Week 15 is the most important week yet and studying targets and tendencies is an essential tool in the arsenal of winning fantasy owners.

Using Week 14 data courtesy of Pro Football Focus, let’s review the target figures from last week and see what they might mean for the all-important Week 15 semi-finals.

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RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
1 Antonio Brown PIT 17 11 213 0 0
2 DeAndre Hopkins HST 15 11 149 2 1
3 Davante Adams GB 13 10 84 2 1
3 Michael Thomas NO 13 10 117 1 0
3 Travis Kelce KC 13 7 74 0 1
6 Jesse James PIT 12 10 97 0 1
6 Michael Crabtree OAK 12 7 60 0 2
8 Alshon Jeffery PHI 11 5 52 1 0
8 Adam Thielen MIN 11 6 105 1 1
8 Demaryius Thomas DEN 11 8 93 1 1

 
This was the second consecutive week that Antonio Brown led the NFL in targets, which should come as no surprise as Brown tops the season-to-date ranks with 159 looks. Over Pittsburgh’s past four games, Brown is averaging 14.5 targets, 10 catches, 157 receiving yards, and has scored six touchdowns. Even though Brown is looking at coverage from Stephon Gilmore this week, he’s the locked-in No. 1 wideout in a game that opened with an NFL-high over/under of 54.5 points.

DeAndre Hopkins is impervious to both cornerbacks and quarterbacks. Whether it’s been Tom Savage, Deshaun Watson, or T.J. Yates, Hopkins continues to put up superb numbers. Hopkins caught two touchdowns last week, both of which came with Yates under center. Yates has already been named the Week 15 starter but faces a tough task against Jacksonville’s NFL-best secondary. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye held Hopkins to seven catches on 16 targets in the season opener, though Hopkins scored the first of his league-leading 11 touchdown grabs in that game.

Davante Adams had his best game of 2017, commanding a season-high 13 targets, 10 receptions and his first multiple-touchdown game of the season. Adams is the only Green Bay receiver who hasn’t suffered from Brett Hundley being under center. The impending return of Aaron Rodgers won’t necessarily hurt Adams as much as it will help targets be more evenly distributed among the other wideouts.

All four of Michael Thomas‘s touchdowns this season have come via the red zone, yet Thomas is tied for 31st with just 12 red zone targets in 2017. The Saint’s dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have hogged most of the touches inside the 20, leaving fewer scoring chances for Thomas and the wide receivers. Up next, the Saints host a Jets defense that has allowed 25 touchdown passes so far, fourth-most in football.

Travis Kelce had a 10-yard touchdown nullified by an ineligible player downfield penalty. Kelce still leads all tight ends in targets (103), catches (73), receiving yards (945), and is tied for second with seven touchdowns. This week, the Chiefs host the Chargers, who are average against tight ends but have only allowed three touchdowns to the position.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of Week 14 was Pittsburgh tight end Jesse James, who caught more balls last week than he had in the Steelers’ previous four games combined. Both the 12 looks and 10 receptions were career-highs for James and unlikely to be repeated again.

Derek Carr had a poor showing against a vulnerable Kansas City secondary, which led to subpar numbers for the receiving corps. Michael Crabtree had a dozen targets but also had a couple of costly drops. Crabtree hasn’t gotten into the end zone since Week 7 but has a solid matchup at home against the Cowboys this week.

The loss of Carson Wentz to a season-ending knee injury is likely to have an immediate impact on Alshon Jeffery, whose fantasy prowess relies heavily on short-yardage touchdowns. If Nick Foles doesn’t rely on Jeffery in the red zone as much as Wentz did, Jeffery could quickly regress to a fantasy WR3.

Adam Thielen bounced back from a quiet Week 13 to post a 6/105/1 line against the Panthers. Thielen’s role in the red zone has grown, which has led to him securing a touchdown catch in four of the last six Minnesota games. In Week 15, the Vikings host a Cincinnati secondary that has allowed a 100-yard receiver in consecutive weeks.

Trevor Siemian and Demaryius Thomas have no trouble connecting against New York secondaries. The two connected in the end zone for the first time this season. Thomas fared much better with Brock Osweiler as the starter but managed to beat Morris Claiborne for a 20-yard score, his first from Siemian but fourth in six games.

RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
8 Roger Lewis NYG 11 7 46 0 1
8 Marquise Goodwin SF 11 6 106 0 2
8 Eric Ebron DET 11 10 94 0 1
8 Nelson Agholor PHI 11 8 64 0 0
8 A.J. Green CIN 11 5 64 0 1
16 Le’Veon Bell PIT 10 9 77 1 0
16 Julio Jones ATL 10 5 98 0 1
16 Theo Riddick DET 10 6 64 0 2
16 Kendall Wright CHI 10 10 107 0 0
16 Martavis Bryant PIT 10 6 33 0 0

 
Roger Lewis led the Giants in targets and receptions which was a bit of a surprise with Sterling Shepard back in the lineup. Lewis didn’t receive any red zone targets and has yet to surpass 55 yards in any one game this season.

Marquise Goodwin has been heating up just when fantasy players needed him the most. Over the past five games, Goodwin is the WR21 in PPR leagues and has gone over 75 receiving yards in four straight. Goodwin has really shined with Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter, catching 14 of 20 targets for 205 yards in Jimmy G’s two starts.

The Bengals had very little offensive success against a spirited Bears defense and things won’t get any easier for A.J. Green in Week 15. Green caught less than half of his 11 targets last week and now is looking at shadow coverage from Minnesota’s Xavier Rhoades this week.

Le’Veon Bell has been held to under 100 rushing yards for six straight games, where he’s been limited to just 3.7 yards-per-carry. However, Bell has more than supplemented his output with big days as a pass catcher. Week 14 marked the third time in four weeks that Bell has commanded double-digit targets. If you removed Bell’s output as a runner and lumped his receiving stats in with wide receivers, Bell would be the WR29 in PPR leagues.

Steve Sarkisian was able to get Julio Jones away from Marshon Lattimore for quite a few routes and Jones had a solid, but unspectacular showing. Jones did receive two targets inside the New Orleans 10-yard line but was unable to catch either pass. Jones and the Falcons have a tremendous matchup in Week 15, facing a Tampa Bay secondary that permits a league-worst 195.1 receiving yards-per-game to opposing wideouts.

Theo Riddick dominated snaps for Detroit, playing 48 of the Lions’ 68 snaps (77%) and out-touching Tion Green 16-5. Riddick scored both of Detroit’s rushing touchdowns, including a 2-yarder. Ameer Abdullah was cleared to return last week but was ruled inactive against the Bucs.

RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
21 Golden Tate DET 9 8 85 1 0
21 Delanie Walker TEN 9 5 42 0 1
21 Torrey Smith PHI 9 6 100 0 1
21 Stefon Diggs MIN 9 6 64 0 1
21 Jeremy Maclin BLT 9 3 27 0 0
26 Jarvis Landry MIA 8 8 46 2 0
26 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 8 3 38 1 2
26 Dede Westbrook JAX 8 5 81 1 0
26 Randall Cobb GB 8 8 39 0 0
26 Wayne Gallman NYG 8 7 40 0 0

 
Like Theo Riddick, Golden Tate also had a strong showing, busting out of a month-long slump to catch eight of nine targets for 85 yards and his first touchdown since Week 10. Three of Tate’s four touchdowns this season have come on the road and the Lions are back home to face the Bears in Week 15.

Torrey Smith had his best target (9), catch (6) and yardage (100) numbers of the season against the Rams. Despite an intriguing matchup against the Giants’ fading secondary, Smith will remain a boom-or-bust option, especially with Nick Foles starting.

Jarvis Landry was terrific on Monday Night Football, catching all eight of his looks and scoring two more touchdowns. Landry actually scored from 16-yards out but had the play called off due to holding before cashing it in a few plays later from the five. Landry’s red zone presence has been a welcomed surprise and he’s now caught a career-high eight touchdowns at just the right time. Landry is set to be an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

It was fun to watch on television but the heavy snows in Buffalo weren’t conducive to fantasy passing numbers. Before he re-aggravated his knee injury, Kelvin Benjamin did well to catch three of eight targets, including a short-yardage touchdown. Benjamin has a solid matchup against Miami this week, but early indications are that his knee is a real threat to keep him out of action.

Wayne Gallman out-snapped Orleans Darkwa 37-19 and had his best day as both a runner (12-59) and receiver. Gallman more than doubled Shane Vereen‘s (3-24) receiving output and could be making a late-season surge for more playing time in the fantasy playoffs. Unfortunately, New York’s running game has a tough schedule, facing the league’s top run defense in the Eagles this week, followed by Arizona’s top-5 run-stop unit in Week 16.

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Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.

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