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Fantasy Football Target Analysis: Week 16

Fantasy Football Target Analysis: Week 16

The 2017 fantasy football season ended with a lump of coal for many of us as countless football fanatics were eagerly anticipating trophy-winning performances from Lamar Miller, Alshon Jeffery or Michael Crabtree only to have to suffer through two excruciating games to ruin Christmas.

Of course, plenty of people also benefited from those dismal performances in the championship game, so congratulations. For the rest of us, let’s regroup and see what we can salvage in the always-unpredictable final slate of the season, Week 17.

Before we can try to forecast whacky Week 17, let’s take one final look at all the passing target numbers from last week and try to see if we can use it to our advantage. Using data from our friends at Pro Football Focus, here are the final NFL target number for the 2017 season.

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RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
1 Larry Fitzgerald ARZ 15 9 119 1 1
2 Zach Ertz PHI 14 9 81 0 1
3 T.Y. Hilton IND 12 6 100 0 1
3 Todd Gurley II LAR 12 10 158 2 0
5 Keelan Cole JAX 11 6 108 0 1
5 Roger Lewis NYG 11 4 40 0 1
7 Charles Clay BUF 10 4 37 0 0
7 A.J. Green CIN 10 6 81 0 1
7 Julio Jones ATL 10 7 149 0 0
7 Eric Decker TEN 10 6 73 0 0

 
Week 16 was the second time this season that Larry Fitzgerald racked up 15 targets and his 119 receiving yards were his best output since Week 6. In Drew Stanton’s three starts, Fitzgerald is averaging 13 targets, eight receptions and 100 receiving yards-per-game. Stanton should get the nod in Week 17 when the Cardinals travel to Seattle.

Zach Ertz was the only Philadelphia pass catcher than put up any significant numbers in the Eagles’ ugly win over the Oakland Raiders. This came as no real surprise to veteran fantasy players as Ertz is well known for his scoring prowess late in the season. This week, Philadelphia hosts Dallas, but they have little to play for having already clinched home-field advantage.

YEAR WEEK TARGET REC YDS TD PPR
2013 14 9 6 57 1 17.7
2014 15 18 15 115 0 26.5
2015 14 13 8 78 1 21.8
2015 15 17 13 122 0 25.2
2016 17 16 13 139 2 38.9

 
T.Y. Hilton had his biggest target day of the 2017 season against Baltimore’s solid secondary, catching half of his dozen looks and securing his first 100-yard performance since Week 9, which just happened to come against this week’s opponent, the Texans. Hilton has a history of killing Houston and with nothing but pride on the line, should have another big week facing one of the worst secondaries in football.

Todd Gurley led all NFL players in receiving yards last week and also finished third in rushing. Gurley has had an MVP-caliber season and his huge performances in the last two weeks likely won more fantasy championships than a similar two-week stretch from the great LaDainian Tomlinson.

Vintage Blake Bortles was on display last week. That means lots of turnovers and plenty of garbage-time stat padding which led to Keelan Cole’s third consecutive game with 99+ receiving yards. The Jaguars are locked into the AFC’s No. 3 seed, so Cole is highly unlikely to extend that streak to four in a meaningless Week 17 game in Tennessee.

Roger Lewis has accumulated 32 targets over New York’s past three games but hasn’t done a lot with them. Lewis has averaged just 53 receiving yards-per-game and hasn’t scored since Week 10.

10 targets were also the high-water mark of the season for Charles Clay, who hasn’t been much of a factor this year. In season-long PPR leagues, Clay ranks just 18th in scoring. The Bills are still alive in the AFC playoffs and end their season with a solid matchup against the Dolphins.

It wasn’t a big surprise that A.J. Green wasn’t able to do a lot with his 10 targets. Green was shadowed by Detroit cornerback Darius Slay, who has been terrific in coverage this season. Green had a solid day, with six grabs and 81 receiving yards, but was kept out of the end zone for the third game in a row.

Julio Jones also faced stiff competition in the form of shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, but Jones easily bested the rookie. Jones caught seven of 10 targets for 149 yards and just missed a controversial non-touchdown call in the red zone. In the driver’s seat for the final playoff spot in the NFC, the Falcons host a leaky Carolina secondary to wrap up the 2017 season.

Overall, this has been the worst season of Eric Decker’s career. Week 16 was Decker’s second-best day of the season and was the first time this year that he hit double-digit targets. The Titans are still alive in the AFC playoffs chase, but Decker won’t be a recommended play against Jacksonville’s elite secondary.

RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
7 Josh Doctson WAS 10 2 61 1 0
7 DeVante Parker MIA 10 5 63 0 0
13 T.J. Yeldon JAX 9 7 64 0 2
13 Stefon Diggs MIN 9 5 60 1 1
13 Corey Davis TEN 9 6 91 0 0
13 Michael Clark GB 9 3 36 0 1
17 Travis Kelce KC 8 4 47 1 1
17 Jason Witten DAL 8 5 39 0 1
17 Josh Gordon CLE 8 2 19 0 0
17 Jermaine Kearse NYJ 8 5 42 0 0

 
Josh Doctson had an ugly day overall, catching only two balls, including a 48-yard touchdown in which he was left wide open via a blown coverage. Doctson wasn’t credited with any drops but just couldn’t haul in many of Kirk Cousin’s high passes. This was the most targets that Doctson has commanded all season and he gets a tasty matchup in New York to end the 2017 campaign.

The bitterly cold weather seemed to have an adverse effect on Case Keenum, who was limited to 139 passing yards. About half of that production came from Stefon Diggs, including a beautiful end zone corner throw for the game’s only touchdown as Diggs was a bigger part of the offense than Adam Thielen for the first time in quite a while. The Vikings end the season at home, hosting the Bears.

Travis Kelce was third among all NFL tight ends in Week 16 with eight looks. Kelce caught his career-high eighth touchdown against the Dolphins and nearly added another one that just slipped out of his hands in the end zone. Kelce is likely to finish the season as fantasy football’s No. 1 tight end.

Six-foot-seven rookie Michael Clark made his NFL debut and received a whopping nine targets for Green Bay. Clark got an extended look due to the absence of Davante Adams. Dynasty owners who still have the ability add players this late in the season might want to take a look at the undrafted prospect out of Marshall.

Like Josh Doctson, Josh Gordon had a frustrating day, catching just two of eight targets for a season-low 19 yards. Hampered by DeShone Kizer’s erratic play, the winless Browns have one last shot to avoid infamy but will have to knock off the AFC’s No. 2 seed, Pittsburgh, on the road.

RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
17 Kenny Golladay DET 8 4 28 0 0
17 Sterling Shepard NYG 8 5 45 0 1
17 Lance Kendricks GB 8 4 36 0 2
17 Alvin Kamara NO 8 7 58 0 0
17 Mike Evans TB 8 6 107 0 0
17 Keenan Allen LAC 8 5 63 0 1
27 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 7 5 70 0 0
27 Devontae Booker DEN 7 5 24 0 1
27 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 7 4 21 0 1
27 Tyreek Hill KC 7 6 109 0 0

 
2017 got off to a promising start for Kenny Golladay, who scored two touchdowns in Detroit’s opener, but he has gone on to do very little since. Week 16’s eight targets were a new season-high for the rookie but resulted in just 28 yards, which was eerily similar to Golladay’s four-catch, 29-yard effort last week.

Excluding his abbreviated Week 14, this was the first full week of action since Week 7 in which Alvin Kamara failed to get into the end zone. The dynamic rookie was still effective, catching seven of his eight looks, but the Falcons were able to contain Kamara as a runner, resulting in just 32 rushing yards on 12 totes. The Saints still have the NFC South division title on the line and get a choice matchup in Tampa to end the season.

Believe it or not, Week 16 was the first 100-yard performance of the season for Mike Evans, who will enter the season finale as the WR17 in PPR leagues after finishing 2016 as a top-3 fantasy wideout. Evans has one more chance to pad his stats but is likely to see plenty of Marshon Lattimore in the finale.

Tyreek Hill had his fourth 100-yard receiving game of the year against Miami, the first of which came at home. Locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed, Hill and the Chiefs have little to play for in Denver this week.

RANK PLAYER TEAM TARGET REC YDS TD DROP
27 Robby Anderson NYJ 7 5 51 0 0
27 Duke Johnson Jr. CLE 7 7 81 0 0
27 Nelson Agholor PHI 7 4 35 0 1
27 Albert Wilson KC 7 3 36 0 2
27 Jarvis Landry MIA 7 5 51 0 0
27 Austin Seferian-Jenkins NYJ 7 4 21 0 0
27 Rob Gronkowski NE 7 5 67 1 0
27 Eric Ebron DET 7 5 83 1 1
27 Jack Doyle IND 7 5 41 0 0
27 C.J. Anderson DEN 7 7 45 0 0

 
After a torrid run from Weeks 7-12, the schedule caught up to Robby Anderson, just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Anderson has still been a steady source of weekly targets, but a three-week run of facing elite cornerbacks from Denver, New Orleans, and the Chargers came at the worst possible time for owners who had relied on Anderson’s production. The Jets end the 2017 season with another tough week, traveling to New England.

It’s been another forgettable season for Browns fans, but Duke Johnson has been a bright spot. Johnson caught all seven of his Week 16 targets and is now in the top-5 in both targets (87) and receptions (68) among all NFL running backs. In PPR leagues, Johnson quietly enters the final game of the season as an RB1 in PPR leagues.

With five more grabs, Jarvis Landry now leads all NFL wideouts with 103 receptions. With nine catches against the Bills, Landry would set a new career-high as he prepares to enter the 2018 season as an unrestricted free agent.

Rob Gronkowski hauled in five of seven looks for 67 yards and his eighth touchdown of the season. Gronk just missed another score against the Bills, who he has routinely destroyed throughout his career. Still needing a victory to wrap up the AFC’s top seed, the Patriots host a Jets secondary that has yielded nine touchdowns to tight ends this season.

Over the past three weeks, C.J. Anderson ranks third in the NFL with 294 rushing yards. Having already set a career-high in rushing, Anderson is just 54 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard campaign and you can bet that he’ll receive a heavy workload against a Kansas City team that has nothing to play for to wind down the 2017 season.

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Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.

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