Week 14 was a relatively quiet one in terms of shifting backfield hierarchies, but there are still plenty of RB situations around the league that are murky at best. That’s not what fantasy owners want to hear heading into win-or-go-home playoff matchups, but it can also mean an opportunity to get a late-season edge on the competition.
Common advice this time of year is to “trust your studs,” and that makes sense within reason. We don’t want to overreact to one good game — or one bad one. But if something concrete has happened to harm a player’s outlook — take Robby Anderson with Josh McCown now lost for the season — we can’t be afraid to pursue plug-and-play flex options, particularly at the running back position. Late-season waiver adds like Mike Davis, Kerwynn Williams, and Gio Bernard can help win fantasy championships. Just ask the guy who added Kenyan Drake last month.
Also make sure to check out my “10 Things We Learned” column for analysis of bigtime Week 14 performances by Alex Collins and Jonathan Stewart, two other guys that weren’t expected to be impact players at the beginning of the season. And if you’ve got any lineup or roster questions, shoot me a message on Twitter.
The secret to winning college bowl pick’ems 
Philadelphia Eagles
It took awhile, but Jay Ajayi‘s workload is finally trending up just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Ajayi out-touched LeGarrette Blount 16-to-9 in Week 14, and out-snapped Blount 43-to-15. Corey Clement remained involved as well but isn’t currently a threat for lead back duties.
With Carson Wentz lost for the season, the upside of all Eagles skill position players takes a hit, but the team should run the ball more. Ajayi has proven in the past that he is capable of big games, and perhaps he is finally on the verge of seeing 20+ touches. If so, it’s not too late for him to be a fantasy difference-maker with a juicy matchup against the Giants next on the schedule and a decent matchup with Oakland after that.
Miami Dolphins
Drake is starting to have the look of a league-winning waiver wire add. While Damien Williams has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, Drake has taken control of this backfield, piling up an unfathomable 334 combined yards from scrimmage against the Broncos and Patriots.
As the Palm Beach Post‘s Joe Schad noted, only Le’Veon Bell has played more snaps than Drake over the last two weeks. Schad predicts that Drake will “get a bit more rest” if and when Williams returns, but adds that “it’s going to be hard to take Drake off the field, as coach Adam Gase likes to say.”
With a dream matchup against the Bills on tap for Week 15, keep Drake locked and loaded as a high-end RB1.
Detroit Lions
Undrafted rookie Tion Green briefly got interesting last week after leading the Lions with 11 productive carries in Week 13. Then the Lions announced that they were benching Ameer Abdullah, further adding to the Tion intrigue. But rather than take a long look at Green, Lions coach Jim Caldwell opted for a heavy dose of Theo Riddick, who predictably struggled on a per-carry basis (2.9 YPC) but crossed the goal line twice while also catching six passes. Green was given just five carries.
Caldwell praised Riddick after the game, so he certainly seems like the Lions back to own at the moment. Riddick has never really been an effective between-the-tackles runner, though, so it would make plenty of sense for Detroit to give Green a shot in that role. Whether that will happen is another story altogether and not something fantasy owners can count on with titles on the line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers frustratingly went back to the well with Doug Martin in Week 14, and the results were predictably poor. Martin scored a touchdown early in the contest but averaged just 2.6 yards per carry and got benched following a second-quarter fumble. Peyton Barber stepped in and again looked like the much better back finishing with 13 touches for 63 yards.
At this point, it is impossible to predict how Tampa Bay will handle its backfield, but if coach Dirk Koetter has any sense he will finally hand the reins over to Barber. Last week Koetter maintained that players shouldn’t lose their jobs due to injury, but perhaps Martin’s fumble provides the necessary excuse to finally make a change. If so, Barber has a shot at RB2 value despite less-than-ideal matchups against Atlanta and Carolina.
Cincinnati Bengals
Gio Bernard filled in more than capably for a concussed Joe Mixon in Week 14. In fact, Bernard piled up 130 yards from scrimmage, a mark Mixon has only topped once all year. That said, the Bengals ended up getting blown out at home by the Bears, and Mixon is still considered the team’s back of the future. So don’t expect Bernard to suddenly steal the job.
Players returning from concussions always face uncertain timelines, but the chances are good that Mixon is back this week. If so, he should regain the lead role in the running game. But don’t be shocked if Bernard is given a few more opportunities than he was granted prior to Mixon’s injury. Cincinnati has been getting good fantasy production out of its running backs over the last three weeks but faces a brutal Week 15 matchup at Minnesota.
The tough matchup and slight concern about Bernard’s involvement could be enough to convince Mixon owners to look elsewhere for an RB2 this week.
Arizona Cardinals
Ever since the Cardinals jettisoned seasoned third-down back Andre Ellington after Week 10, coach Bruce Arians hasn’t shown much interest in deploying a backfield committee. Adrian Peterson played about 70 percent of the snaps in Weeks 11 and 12 before missing the last two games with a neck injury, and with Peterson out it looks like Kerwynn Williams is now trending toward that level of usage.
We still don’t know much at all about the severity of Peterson’s injury — perhaps he’ll return this week, but it doesn’t seem particularly likely. If and when AP does return, it’s safe to assume he’ll return to a high volume role. But if he misses Week 15, Williams will again be a good bet for at least 15-20 touches, making him a legit RB2 option in a favorable matchup against Washington. D.J. Foster may steal a little bit of passing-down work, but the Cardinals are not featuring their backs heavily in the passing game, and Williams can hold his own in that department as well.
New York Giants
As the Giants’ season continues to descend to new lows, they might as well give rookie fourth-round pick Wayne Gallman a tryout for the lead running back job in 2018. This is the team that decided to bench ironman Eli Manning for journeyman Geno Smith (rather than rookie Davis Webb), so logical roster decisions can hardly be assumed even with Ben McAdoo and Jerry Reese out of the picture. But there are signs that Gallman is moving ahead of Orleans Darkwa in the RB pecking order.
Gallman out-touched Darkwa 19-to-12 and out-snapped him 37-to-19 in Week 14, and Gallman was clearly the more effective runner. This is likely still a committee and the Giants have an awful remaining schedule (vs. PHI, @ARZ), so Gallman is far from a plug-and-play option. But he is a reasonable stash as a possible Week 16 flex option, particularly in deeper leagues.
Chicago Bears
It’s been feast or famine lately for Jordan Howard. Over his last four games, Howard has two games where he’s accounted for at least 125 yards and scored at least one touchdown and two games where he’s produced less than 35 yards and no scores.
Howard is not a big factor in the passing game, so he is quite dependent on positive game script. In Week 14, the Bears played with a big lead for the first time in seven weeks and it resulted in Howard’s first 20+ touch game since Week 8. His remaining matchups (@DET, vs. CLE) are favorable on paper, but there is some risk of the Bears falling behind early against the Lions this week. Then again, Chicago will probably rely heavily on Howard early in the game to eat clock and keep it close.
The bottom line is that if you have Howard, you’re probably playing him this week and hoping for the best.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys got a huge fantasy performance out of one of their running backs in Week 14, but unfortunately for Alfred Morris owners, it was Rod Smith who did the damage. Smith’s 160 total yards and two scores didn’t do much good for fantasy owners considering he was started in just two percent of Yahoo leagues.
Morris out-touched Smith 22-to-11 and slightly out-snapped him, too, so there’s little reason to believe that this situation has changed. Dallas has a pretty good matchup against the Raiders this week, so Morris should remain a solid RB2 while Smith is still just a boom-or-bust flex option. Then Ezekiel Elliott returns from suspension in Week 16, at which point both Morris and Smith will quickly fade into fantasy irrelevance.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
