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2017 Season in Review: Fantasy Football Hits and Misses

2017 Season in Review: Fantasy Football Hits and Misses

Another NFL season has come and gone, and while the research and preparation never stops, it’s always healthy to take a break from the constant studying and just have some fun. That’s what we’re going to do here. Today, I will both pat myself on the back and call myself out.

Each year, all of us will hit and miss on many players. After all, we are required to have an opinion about literally every player, so it goes without saying that some will be correct and some will be not so correct.

From a success perspective, certain opinions are more important than others. I whiffed on Shane Vereen this year.

I thought he would be fantasy relevant. He wasn’t. Not even close.

However, that kind of miss has little to no impact on your season. It is far more damaging to miss on an early round player than a late-round flier.

At the same time, I was a believer in LeSean McCoy this year, which was great. However, getting McCoy correct isn’t nearly as helpful as nailing a mid to late round guy that will be drafted significantly higher in 2018. In getting McCoy correct, all I did was simply not fail.

We’re not here to look at the LeSean McCoys or the Shane Vereens of the fantasy world. I am going to go through the players I had the strongest opinions on and, in the most cases, the ones where I put my money where my mouth was, saw how correct I was, and discussed the relative impact of my opinion.

Draft Theory

Before we get into specific players, 2017 will undoubtedly be viewed as the return of the dominance of the running back position. Hopefully, you came across my article from back in May where I forecasted the 2017 Running Back Renaissance. One of my biggest hits in 2017 was the idea that RBs would return to prominence.

While obviously much can change between now and 2018 drafts, my way too early draft theory is that I will likely be recommending a WR heavy approach. Later this month I will be releasing an article that analyzes how bad WR production indeed was in 2017 and why it is likely to rebound in 2018. My early projections have nine, possibly 10 RBs going in the first round with the only first round WR locks being Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins and the single other name that could sneak in being Odell Beckham.

*Note that for all fantasy point discussions, I am using average PPR points per game from Weeks 1-16.

QB Hits

None. Zero.

I was high on two QBs that I thought were going later than they should. One of those QBs will find himself planted firmly in the “Misses” section and the other will be in the final “I’m Not Really Sure” section. This was not a good year for drafting QBs as one-third of the QB1s went undrafted while none of the earlier drafted QBs outside of Russell Wilson lived up to their draft position.

QB Misses

Marcus Mariota (QB – TEN)
This one hurts. I was all in on Marcus Mariota.

I didn’t just think he would be a QB1. I thought he would be a top-five option. Even removing the 49ers QBs and Carson Palmer, Mariota was merely the QB19 this season.

In my defense, I do believe Mariota played the majority of the season injured, and his lack of rushing numbers support this. However, he wasn’t exactly playing well before he got hurt and I witnessed him be very careless with the football and erratic with his throws. This was not the same player I saw in 2016.

With that being said, there will be a ton of recency bias with Mariota heading in 2018 drafts and I will once again be a supporter of his, except this time the price will be cheaper and the expectations lower. Mariota will likely be available as your backup – not a top 12 option – in 2018, thus providing you with the same upside he had entering 2017 without any risk whatsoever.

Keep that in mind as you are prepared to dismiss him. Regardless, for 2017, he was a complete whiff.

RB Hits

Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL)
Not every hit means I predicted a player would do well. In fact, more often than not, it’s avoiding a player that makes all the difference. Devonta Freeman was a back-end first-round pick by just about every measure.

Not for me. I didn’t hate him. Not at all.

He was just going in the first round, and I thought he should be going around the 2-3 turn. He was treated as a mid RB1, and I viewed him as a high-end RB2, which is exactly where he finished — 13th out of all RBs.

Jay Ajayi (RB – PHI)
Back when I was blasting anyone that even considered Jay Ajayi in the first three rounds, he played in Miami. But it didn’t matter where Ajayi played; he didn’t produce. My issue with Ajayi wasn’t that he was a terrible player, but rather that the majority of his production came in a handful of games.

Even if he did that again, he still wouldn’t have been worth where he was being drafted. Ajayi’s cost only took his ceiling into account.

Instead, we got his floor. I wanted no part of Ajayi in 2017 and will want no part of him in 2018.

Adrian Peterson (RB – ARI)
My position on Adrian Peterson heading into 2017 was that he was done. After averaging 3.5 yards per carry and fumbling more times that he found the end zone, I consider myself vindicated. AP is an all-time great, but his time has passed.

Eddie Lacy (RB – SEA)
When people say there is no round where they would draft a player, usually it’s an exaggeration. At some point, every player becomes worth it…except Eddie Lacy. There was legitimately no spot in the draft, not even the last round, where Lacy was worth it to me.

He entered the season as the third worst RB in football and performed like it. Lacy’s career is all but over.

Rob Kelley (RB – WAS)
And here is your second worst RB in the NFL entering 2017. His injury notwithstanding, he wasn’t worth starting at any point this season. He is one of the least athletic players ever to play the RB position.

He has no talent whatsoever, and he was on a pass-first offense. I can’t imagine he ever has a meaningful role again. I’d be surprised if he were still in the league in 2019.

Paul Perkins (RB – NYG)
And here is the single worst RB in the NFL. Paul Perkins. It is mindboggling that he remained the starter as long as he did. He was spectacularly bad in 2016 and did nothing to earn the starting role in 2017.

He got it anyway and produced like a player that has no business being in the NFL. He should follow Rob Kelley out the door.

RB Misses

Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC)
It is time for me to take my lumps. I’ve been a Melvin Gordon hater for two seasons now, and for two seasons he’s made me look like a fool. Here’s my issue with Gordon – he is not special.

There’s no reason for him to receive any push over a replacement level player. He’s consistently inefficient and non-explosive. However, one thing I am working hard to instill into my brain when it comes to fantasy football is that volume trumps efficiency every time.

No single factor is more important than volume and Gordon has a ton of it. Gordon was a mid RB1 heading into this season, and he finished as the RB6, right where most people expected him to be.

He indeed was worth his mid-late first round price tag and will probably be worth it again next year. The likely scenario is I finally buy in, and 2018 is the year he falls apart.

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN)
When mentioning finishing positions for RBs, I unfortunately have to disregard Dalvin Cook because he only played four games. However, I was wrong on Cook. I did not expect him to receive the volume necessary to be worth his draft position.

I think it’s fair to say he was well on his way to putting up an RB1 season while Jerick McKinnon played a satellite role and Latavius Murray simply didn’t play. I will not allow myself to be bailed out by injury. Cook will be an interesting case next season as Murray and McKinnon have fared quite well in his absence, proving my initial point that the Vikings did not need to draft Cook. My initial feeling is they will restore Cook to a featured workload.

All The Late Round RBs
Rather than list each one individually, they get lumped together as one collective “miss.” I threw darts at the likes of C.J. Prosise, Shane Vereen, Tarik Cohen, and Darren Sproles, while ignoring Alvin Kamara due to a crowded backfield and Duke Johnson because he’s on the Browns.

While none of these misses hurt me, not hitting on anything prevented me from gaining that oh so important edge. I’ll have to do better next year with the zero RB strategy running backs.

WR Hits

Tyreek Hill (WR – KC)
If I had to pick one thing to get correct in 2017, it would’ve been Tyreek Hill. The amount of lousy analysis out there on Hill was genuinely infuriating. From the proclamations of him being a “gadget player” to the comparisons to Cordarrelle Patterson to the Alex Smith can’t produce a WR1 – they were all just bad.

Hill is super athletic and stupid fast, yet many people thought he was overvalued in the fourth round. I thought he was an absolute steal at his ADP and am on record stating he had top five WR upside. He finished as the PPR WR6.

Next year, he will be a second round pick and still won’t be getting the respect he deserves. I still have people telling me he’s boom or bust.

Those same people are going to draft Julio Jones ahead of Tyreek Hill next year. It will be a mistake.

Adam Thielen (WR – MIN)
You’re going to find some misses in the linked article as well, but one of my best predictions heading into this season was the rise of Adam Thielen. I said that it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up an 80 catch, 1,200-yard season.

Thielen caught 91 balls for 1,277 yards. That’s pretty close to perfect.

It took the fantasy community a long time to accept that an undrafted free agent from a small school could be an elite WR. He is.

Thielen is Jordy Nelson 2.0. He’s a legit WR1 and is a lock to be undervalued again in 2018 despite finishing as the WR10 this season.

Dez Bryant (WR – DAL)
As a Cowboys fan, it angered me that people were drafting Dez Bryant in the second round. I knew he had no business being there because Bryant stopped being an elite WR in 2015. It took three full years for it to catch on.

Bryant can make all the excuses he wants, but the reality is he hasn’t been good since 2014. Bryant finished as the WR29, which was somehow even worse than I thought he would be.

I had him as a low-end WR2. He was a mid WR3. Bryant’s price will correct in 2018, and I still want no part of him.

WR Misses

DeAndre Hopkins (WR – HOU)
This is my anti-Tyreek Hill. My worst call of the season.

I never doubted DeAndre Hopkins’ talent. I doubted his ability to produce with a bad QB after seeing what Brock Osweiler did to him in 2016. As it turns out, all Hopkins needs is to have literally anyone other than Osweiler.

We saw him be elite with Brian Hoyer. Now we’ve seen him be elite with Tom Savage, DeShaun Watson, and T.J. Yates. As long as it’s not Osweiler, it doesn’t matter.

I thought Hopkins was overvalued as a third-round pick. He finished as the second highest scoring WR. That’s as bad of a miss as you can have.

Michael Thomas (WR – NO)
This wasn’t a huge miss, but I did state that I didn’t think Michael Thomas would be a WR1 this season. I had the same feelings about him as I did about Devonta Freeman. Thomas was not only a WR1, but he was remarkably consistent en route to a top-five finish.

With no real competition for targets, Thomas did not struggle in the top role – he thrived. He is more talented than I thought and I am firmly a believer in Thomas in 2018. If the situation is right, he will be welcome on my teams.

Brandin Cooks (WR – NE)
I wasn’t expecting Randy Moss, but I was expecting the closest thing to Moss since Moss. Instead, I got…whatever it is 2017 Brandin Cooks was. As it turns out, being linked to Tom Brady in 2007 is a lot different than Tom Brady in 2017.

If we count pass interference yardage, Cooks probably wouldn’t be in this section. Cooks was great at drawing flags, and Brady was great at just missing Cooks whenever he beat someone deep.

I expected a mid WR1. Instead, I got a mid WR2.

Cooks wasn’t a total disaster and wasn’t the type of pick to derail a season, but he wasn’t the league winning pick I thought he was. I am not yet sure how I feel about Cooks in 2018.

Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA)
If I didn’t get Cooks, I wanted Doug Baldwin. He’s tied to Russell Wilson. He’s on a good offense. He has a great weekly target floor. These are all things that I thought. The funny part is the first two held true.

Seattle’s offense was just fine, and Wilson finished as the best QB in fantasy. Baldwin just wasn’t part of the plan. He used to be a PPR monster.

In 2017, he morphed into a boom or bust touchdown-dependent WR2. Baldwin finished one spot below Cooks, which is right where I had him ranked before the season (except, you know, as a WR1). He only scored one fewer touchdown than 2016.

He lost about one target per game and caught 24 fewer passes for 227 fewer yards. Part of the blame goes to the truly horrendous coaches in Seattle that are ruining the prime of Wilson’s career.

But some of the blame goes to Baldwin for just not being the guy he finally convinced me he was after 2015. I have put Baldwin on the “never again” list.

Tyrell Williams (WR – LAC)
I am not wrong about Tyrell Williams’ talent. I am wrong to think that Philip Rivers has any interest in throwing the ball to anyone other than Keenan Allen.

Williams would’ve been a WR2 again had Allen done his usual thing and gotten hurt. Instead, Allen played all 16 games and Williams wasn’t even a WR4. I can’t wait for him to get out of Los Angeles.

TE Hits

Evan Engram (TE – NYG)
“You can’t trust rookie tight ends.” How many times have you heard that? Evan Engram is not just any rookie, though.

The reason the TE position has the steepest learning curve is because players mainly have to learn how to run routes and block. Engram was not there to block. He’s basically a very large wide receiver.

Engram had one of the best rookie TE seasons in NFL history. I won’t say I saw that coming. But I did see a productive player that would be a fantasy starter.

Engram was significantly behind the big three TEs of Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz, but he still finished fourth at the position despite not even being drafted in most leagues. Engram is going to be an elite TE1 by 2019, and I am all in for 2018.

TE Misses

Hunter Henry (TE – LAC)
The funny part about Hunter Henry is in a typical year, I would’ve gotten this correct. I did not think Henry was worth his late single digit round ADP. Antonio Gates wasn’t going away and I didn’t think Henry’s usage would be consistent enough…and it wasn’t…it just didn’t matter.

The TE position was such a wasteland this year that despite not being used nearly as much as he should, Henry still finished as the overall TE8. He was inconsistent, but so was everyone else. Henry’s role should continue to expand in 2018, but then again, that’s what should’ve happened in 2017.

Philip Rivers loves him some Gates and old habits die hard. It’s going to take Gates’ retirement to fully unlock the talent that is Hunter Henry.

The “I’m Not Really Sure” Guys

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL)
Alright here’s the deal with Dak Prescott. He finished as the QB12 by average points. That’s certainly not where I expected him to be, but the way he got there kept me from putting him as a total miss.

He was an elite QB1 for half the season. That has to count for something. I was well on my way to being extremely right about Prescott.

Then the wheels fell off, and he finished the season in cataclysmic fashion. He wasn’t drafted as a top 12 QB entering the season, so he did outperform his ADP. However, there was no middle ground with him this season.

He was incredible, and then he was awful. So while technically I got Prescott “correct,” I can’t give myself full credit for being carried by half a season’s worth of production. I am not sure how I will feel about Prescott in 2018.

I want Dez Bryant gone and for the team to bring in some real weapons because Prescott currently has none. The draft and free agency will play a huge role in determining how bullish I am on Prescott next season.

Kareem Hunt (RB – KC)
I was very outspoken in favor of Spencer Ware all offseason. I even went so far as to state there was “no chance” Kareem Hunt would take Ware’s job.

Was I wrong? I’m not really sure. Due to Ware’s injury, we’ll never know.

After what Hunt did this season, it certainly seems probable that eventually Hunt would’ve taken the job, but there’s no way to really know. Ware will be back in 2018 in the Charcandrick West role to give the Chiefs one of the best backfields in the league.

His presence would make Hunt a slightly riskier first-round pick as Andy Reid is the type of coach that would ride Ware if he showed well in a game or two filling in for an injured Hunt. In the first round, you want that Melvin Gordon level job security.

Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.

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