Skip to main content

2018 Third Base Prospects (Fantasy Baseball)

2018 Third Base Prospects (Fantasy Baseball)

The hot corner is loaded. There’s a blend of MLB-ready talent, nearly MLB-ready talent, and an elite, precocious prospect who is worth mentioning even as a long shot to reach “The Show” in 2018. In the interest of covering more talent, I’m going to scale back the depth of the analysis relative to the prospects featured at catcher and first base, but I’ll offset that by bumping up the number of prospects featured.

Mock in minutes (free) with our fantasy baseball draft software partner-arrow

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
I’ll kill the suspense and immediately reveal the long-shot prospect noted in the intro. Junior isn’t the free swinger his father was, but he does project to be a middle-of-the-order hitter like his pops was. Between Single-A and High-A last season, the youngster hit .323/.425/.485 with a 14.4% BB%, 11.6% K%, 13 homers, and a .162 ISO, per FanGraphs.

The mediocre homer and ISO output fail to represent his raw power and projected game power, both of which earn easy plus grades. The rest of his hitting profile and production were astonishing for an 18-year-old kid playing in full-season ball. Guerrero Jr.’s upside is unmatched by any other third base prospect, but he’ll probably spend all of 2018 in the minors.

After thrashing High-A pitching, though, he could start the year in Double-A. If that proves to be the case, I won’t write off his odds of forcing Toronto’s hand and getting a taste of big-league joe before year’s end.

Michael Chavis (BOS)
Chavis doesn’t have a clear path to the parent club with Rafael Devers entrenched at third base. However, he’s probably not far from being ready for the game’s highest level after tallying a 187 wRC+ in High-A and 114 wRC+ in Double-A. Power is Chavis’ calling card, and he swatted 31 homers in 524 plate appearances split between High-A and Double-A last season.

He hit just .250 at the Double-A level, and his hit tool earns a slightly below average grade at reputable outlets. If an injury opens the door for Chavis playing this year, he could have corner infielder or utility value in larger leagues, but he doesn’t need to be drafted or stashed in any re-draft leagues.

Christian Arroyo (TB)
Arroyo was shipped from the Giants to the Rays in a multi-player deal that netted the Giants Evan Longoria. Arroyo’s profile is that of a better real-life player than fantasy asset, but his proximity to everyday at-bats (he played in 34 games for the Giants last year) helps put him on the radar in larger leagues. He hit just .192/.244/.304 with three homers, one stolen base, a 5.9% BB%, and 23.7% K% in 135 plate appearances for the Giants last year.

However, in 619 plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016 and 2017 combined, he hit .294/.340/.411 with a 5.7% BB%, 13.6% K%, and seven homers. Arroyo’s top-shelf ability to put the bat on the ball helps fuel a plus hit tool grade, but his power checks in below average.

He has a chance to be a helper in batting average and, depending on where he settles into Tampa Bay’s lineup, he could also chip in run-production stats. He’s not the most exciting fantasy option, but helping rosters in 14-team mixed leagues and AL-only formats is within reach.

Miguel Andujar (NYY)
Andujar currently sits atop the Yankees’ depth chart on their MLB.com depth chart page. He rounds out a quartet of American League East hot-corner representatives. Andujar totaled eight plate appearances for the Yankees last season after splitting the year between Double-A and Triple-A.

In 522 plate appearances in the upper minors last year, he hit .315/.352/.498, with a 5.6% BB%, 13.6% K%, .183 ISO, 16 homers, and five stolen bases in eight attempts. The stolen base number doesn’t jump off the page, but Jeffrey Paternostro and the BP Prospect Staff described him as a plus runner in the New York Yankees Top 10 Prospect list this year, though, MLBPipeline.com grades his run tool a pinch below average at 45 on the 20-to-80 scale. FanGraphs scouting report on his player page splits the difference and grades his speed tool exactly average at 50.

Last season represented a statistical breakout for Andujar. It’s possible, if not likely, the Yankees add someone to the third base mix. They reached Game 7 in the American League Championship Series last year, and they’re positioned to make a World Series Championship run, and third base is a position they could obviously upgrade.

If they don’t, however, Andujar could end up with the most at-bats of any player featured in this piece this year. As a right-handed hitter, his power will get a boost with Yankee stadium enhancing right-handed homers by 25.8%, per our three-year park factor data. Like Arroyo, Andujar has large mixed-league and AL-only format appeal as things stand currently.

Colin Moran (PIT)
J.D. Davis (HOU)
Instead of offering you cliff notes of what I’ve previously written about Moran and Davis, check out this piece at RotoGraphs featuring Moran and this one featuring Davis. Interestingly, the Pirates and Astros swung a trade as I wrote this section.

David Freese is a far less imposing roadblock for regular playing time than he faced in Houston, and Freese’s excellence against lefties coupled with Moran being a left-handed hitter sets up a reasonably obvious platoon with the former Astro on the heavy side of the platoon. The path is a little clearer for Davis carving out playing time on the loaded Astros with Moran no longer in the mix, but he still faces an uphill battle for even semi-regular playing time.

Brian Anderson (MIA)
The Marlins are once again in the midst of a rebuild, and they’re in full-blown penny-pincher mode. With that in mind, you can expect Anderson to open the year in the minors until at least the projected Super Two deadline.

In fairness, he is blocked at third base by Martin Prado (at least until the Marlins manage to shed his contract in a salary dump). Anderson totaled 95 plate appearances for the Marlins last year and hit .262/.337/.369 with zero homers, zero stolen bases, a 10.5% BB%, and 29.5% K%.

He earned a look on the parent club after tearing the cover off of the ball in Double-A and Triple-A. In 498 plate appearances in the upper minors in 2017, he hit .275/.361/.492, with a 9.6% BB%, 19.7% K%, .217 ISO, and 22 homers. MLBPipeline.com has an average grade on his power and 45 on his hit tool, but his write-up there notes “above-average raw pop to his pull side.”

Anderson’s steady walk rates in the minors enhance his value in leagues that use OBP. Anderson’s 2018 outlook isn’t exciting for a number of reasons.

First, Marlins Park’s right-handed ballpark factors — namely 0.761 (on a 1.000 scale) for homers — hurt his outlook, as does a stripped down roster that will hamper his run-production upside even if he’s able to claim a spot in the heart of the order at some point in 2018. Furthermore, the stingy Marlins could opt to be extremely slow to promote him to the parent club in the interest of manipulating his service time. Anderson doesn’t need to be drafted in re-draft leagues, but his development and potential for a call-up this year warrants monitoring in large mixed leagues and NL-only formats.

Nick Senzel (CIN)
Senzel was the second pick in the 2016 MLB Amateur Draft, and he’s wasting no time shooting up the minor-league ladder. He spent roughly half of last year in Double-A and posted a 184 wRC+ in 235 plate appearances there. Last year, he raked to the tune of a .321/.391/.514 slash with a 9.7% BB%, 19.1% K%, .193 ISO, 14 homers, and 14 stolen bases in 507 plate appearances split between High-A and Double-A.

The scouting reports are just as tantalizing as the statistics. The 22-year-old’s hit tool is dreamy with no lower than a plus grade and a plus-plus (70) future grade at FanGraphs. It’s paired with at least an average power tool that might play above average and will get a boost at Great American Ball Park (1.118 right-handed batter park factor for homers).

As a bonus, his stolen bases aren’t smoke and mirrors. Both FanGraphs and MLBPipeline.com grade his run tool as a 55, and MLBPipeline.com lauds his instincts as a baserunner. Senzel is one of the most exciting prospects in baseball, and he has stud fantasy upside.

The only knock on him is the presence of Eugenio Suarez ahead of him on the parent club. Suarez was excellent last year earning 4.1 fWAR with above-average work as a hitter and defender.

It’s worth noting that FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen stated Senzel has received offseason reps at second base and in both outfield corners. Senzel is worth rostering in all league types when he reaches “The Show,” and his upside is worth drafting and stashing in leagues as shallow as 12-team mixers depending on bench size and league settings.

Practice fast mock drafts with our fantasy baseball software partner-arrow

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

More Articles

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 10 min read
MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Thursday (3/28)

fp-headshot by Josh Shepardson | 1 min read
Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Jordan Romano, Michael Kopech, Paul Sewald (2024)

fp-headshot by Austin Lowell | 4 min read
13 Bold Predictions from the Experts (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

13 Bold Predictions from the Experts (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

fp-headshot by FantasyPros Staff | 5 min read

About Author

Hide

Current Article

4 min read

Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Next Up - Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart: Michael Harris II, Zach Eflin, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (2024)

Next Article