Fantasy football is a game of numbers. The goal is to outscore your opponent every week.
The game film tells one story, but innovative statistics and analytics tell another. Have you ever wondered what stats you should review to understand how productive certain players can truly be?
What impact would that have on your fantasy football team? In essence that is the goal of this column. This article will provide you a line of sight regarding noteworthy stats and trends you should be aware of to dominate your league.
Past performance is not indicative of future production in fantasy football, but it can provide you a line of sight of what stats to pay attention to. This week I will provide you eight statistics for the 2017 season.
TODD GURLEY LED ALL RUNNING BACKS IN TOUCHDOWNS
Todd Gurley had one more carry in 2017 than in 2016. He ran for 420 more yards.
— Alden Gonzalez (@Alden_Gonzalez) January 2, 2018
Gurley scored 19 touchdowns during the regular season as a runner and a receiver. He averaged 18.6 rushing attempts, 87 rushing yards, 5.8 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 52.5 receiving yards per game. Gurley also produced a positive rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation which suggests he outperformed his volume. He played the second highest offensive snaps (796) among RBs during the regular season and touched the football or was targeted on 46 percent of them. Gurley has always possessed the rare athletic ability, but this was the first time in his career that he played alongside a solid supporting class. Rams head coach Sean McVay was the catalyst that molded this team into the NFL’s number one scoring offense (478) that scored points on 45.3 percent of its drives. He finished as the RB1 in all formats and will be in a perfect position to replicate that feat in 2018.
DUKE JOHNSON FINISHED AS THE RB11 IN PPR FORMATS
Every team in the NFL would kill to have Duke Johnson on their team. He’s so damn good.
— Dustin Fox (@DustinFox37) December 31, 2017
Did you know that Johnson scored more fantasy points than Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, and Lamar Miller? He was very efficient with his low number of touches and still managed positive fantasy points over expectation as a runner and as a receiver. Johnson only averaged 5.1 rushing attempts, 21.8 rushing yards, 5.8 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 43.3 receiving yards per game through 16. This was the first season he surpassed 1,000 scrimmage yards in his career and only played 53 percent of the Browns offensive snaps. Johnson also broke the Browns single-season record for RB receptions that was previously held by Greg Pruitt from during the 1981 regular season. He has one year left on his rookie contract and continues to be deployed as a receiver out of the backfield. Johnson’s role appears to be secure heading into the 2018 season, but one question remains. What statistical production could he be capable of if the Browns consistently provided him 15 or more touches per game?
DEANDRE HOPKINS LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 174 TARGETS
Most catches, first 4 years of an NFL career:
Jarvis Landry, 400
Anquan Boldin, 342
Larry Fitzgerald, 330
A.J. Green, 329
Brandon Marshall, 327
DeAndre Hopkins, 317
Odell Beckham, 313
Marvin Harrison, 311
Andre Johnson, 311— Jason Lieser (@JasonLieser) January 2, 2018
Hopkins is one of the rare NFL talents whose athletic ability and ball skills can transcend inferior quarterback play. He averaged 11.6 targets, 6.4 receptions, and 92 receiving yards per game in 2017. Hopkins led all WRs in Air Yards with 2,243 and receiving touchdowns with 13 which also happened to be a career high. The only WRs who played more offensive snaps than Hopkins (1,027) were Adam Thielen (1,034), Brandin Cooks (1,058), and Larry Fitzgerald (1,074). He finished as the WR1 and quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to return to the fold this summer from his ACL injury. Hopkins is only 25 years old.
JARVIS LANDRY LED ALL WIDE RECEIVERS WITH 112 RECEPTIONS
Jarvis Landry needs 105 yards this week to avoid becoming the first WR to ever have 100 receptions+ in a season while failing to reach 1,000 yards receiving.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 26, 2017
Landry had 161 targets, but only produced 987 receiving yards and a career-high nine touchdowns through 16 games playing 90 percent of the offensive snaps. He did produce 498 yards after the catch which ranked third among WRs and scored the third most receiving touchdowns (9). Landry’s average depth of target or aDOT of 6.4 yards is troublesome. Given the dysfunction in Miami this season a change of scenery could be good for him considering how the season ended with an ejection in the regular season finale against the Bills after scoring a touchdown on his 112th catch. Landry was targeted on 27 percent of quarterbacks Jay Cutler and Matt Moore‘s passes. Poor QB play also negatively impacted his production. Cutler finished the regular season with a QBR of 81.
TRAVIS KELCE LED ALL TIGHT ENDS WITH 406 YARDS AFTER THE CATCH
Some 2017 TE end zone target numbers:
David Njoku – 8
Travis Kelce – 7
Jason Witten – 5
Jack Doyle – 4
Austin Hooper – 2— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) January 3, 2018
Kelce finished as the TE1 in PPR formats narrowly edging out Rob Gronkowski. He also led all tight ends in targets with 122. Kelce averaged 8.1 targets, 5.5 receptions, and 69.2 receiving yards per game along with a positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. The only tight end who scored more touchdowns than Kelce (8) was Jimmy Graham (10). Kelce can continue to be viewed as an elite tight end heading into next season. The volume of targets that he sees on a per game basis is a valuable commodity at the tight end position.
JASON WITTEN LED ALL TIGHT ENDS IN SNAPS PLAYED
Jason Witten plans to return for his 16th NFL season. https://t.co/8W7HSWmP3c
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 1, 2018
Witten played 98 percent of the Cowboys offensive snaps. He finished as the TE9 in PPR formats which resulted in a solid return on your investment considering his average draft position or ADP during the summer. Witten averaged 5.4 targets, 3.9 receptions, and 35 receiving yards per game with a positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. He does not have the play speed at this stage of his career to separate from defenders considering he accumulated mere 105 yards after the catch, but he did score five touchdowns this season. The 36-year-old Witten did confirm earlier this year that he will return for the 2018 NFL season. He did post a catch rate of 63 percent and 560 receiving yards last season. Witten has not posted statistics this low since his rookie year. He will still be valuable to quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense as an outlet receiver. Witten is also one of the better blocking tight ends in the NFL. He can be viewed as a high-end TE2 next season.
RUSSELL WILSON AVERAGED 21.7 FANTASY POINTS PER GAME
Russell Wilson finishes the 2017 season as the @NFL's leader in TD passes. #GoHawks pic.twitter.com/eqzBLMxJpg
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) January 1, 2018
Did you know that Wilson became the first quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in each of his first six seasons according to Pro Football Reference? Over that time frame, he has averaged 29.57 pass attempts, 231.7 passing yards, 1.7 touchdowns, and 0.58 interceptions per game. Wilson also averaged six rushing attempts, 34.1 yards, and 0.2 rushing touchdowns per game. He finished as the fantasy QB1.
Wilson scored 48.44 more fantasy points than any other quarterback this season. He averaged 34.56 pass attempts, 248.9 passing yards, 2.1 touchdowns, and 0.69 interceptions per game. Wilson also had a positive passing and rushing fantasy points over expectation through 16 games. He had to carry the entire Seahawks offense. The team’s running game struggled with an offensive line that ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards. The running backs also struggled in Open Field Yards as depicted by the Seahawks being ranked 21st in this metric. The Seahawks offensive line also struggled in pass protection allowing 47 sacks. Wilson led the NFL in touchdown passes and the Seahawks in rushing yards. He can be viewed as an upper-echelon QB1 heading into next season.
CAM NEWTON LED ALL QUARTERBACKS IN RUSHING YARDS
Cam Newton’s rank among QBs through their 1st 7 seasons:
-1st in rushing yds (4,320)
-8th in passing yds (25,074)
-2nd in total yds, passing & rushing (29,394)
-1st in rushing TDs (54)
-3rd in total TDs (212)
-3rd QB w/ 3,000 yards passing in all 7 seasons
h/t @Pantherstatsguy pic.twitter.com/qsW7DGp7dK— The Riot Report (@RRiotReport) January 2, 2018
Newton finished as the fantasy QB2 and accumulated 754 rushing yards and scored six rushing touchdowns. He has generated 50 rushing yards or more over his last five games. Newton averaged 30.81 pass attempts, 205.9 passing yards, 1.4 touchdowns, and 1.0 interceptions per game during the regular season. Success or failure for Newton from a fantasy perspective will continue to be tied to his ability as a runner. He had the lowest QBR (81) of the top-16 fantasy quarterbacks.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
This concludes By The Numbers for the 2017 season. The purpose of this column was to make you a more informed fantasy player and put you in the best possible position to harness this intellectual capital into a league-winning team. What statistics stood out to you? Please leave a comment below or reach out to me on Twitter.
You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. I will continue to be very active with FantasyPros during the offseason helping to provide analysis on free agency, the draft, and other events on the NFL calendar. Until next time!
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
