A stack featured in the FanDuel Lineup Advice piece stands out as a strong one at DraftKings, too. Instead of a three-man stack from the same team, though, it’s a QB/WR stack that features a receiving-whiz back from the opponent as part of a three-man game stack.
A rule of thumb is broken with another game stack, but given the skill-sets of the opposing backs, that’s okay. The lineup advice is rounded out by a rookie wideout who’s been more bust than boom, but he’s underpriced and tied to a spread that should benefit his usage.
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Drew Brees (QB – NO): $6,400 vs. Panthers
Michael Thomas (WR – NO): $7,800 vs. Panthers
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR): $6,400 @ Saints
Brees and the Saints won the NFC South in part because it wasn’t just the “Drew Brees Show.” The defense played at an above-average level, and the offense had a pair of dynamic backs to help Brees carry the load.
The result was more high-floor showings than high-ceiling ones from Brees in the regular season. Now that the playoffs have arrived, the Saints shouldn’t be expected to just abandon what got them to this point, but they could ask more from their stud quarterback.
Football Outsiders (FO) ranks Carolina sixth defending the pass, but they’re easier to beat through the air — relatively speaking — ranking 10th defending the pass. Brees remained true to his career home/road splits and played better at home this year. In his eight home games, Brees rattled off 12 touchdown passes, 8.47 yards per pass attempt, 8.52 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and 284.8 passing yards per game, according to Pro-Football-Reference. He also had little trouble in two regular-season contests against the Panthers averaging 244.5 passing yards per game with four touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and a 74.6% completion percentage.
If he’s asked to do more this time out, Brees appears fully capable of answering the bell. The Saints are seven-point favorites with an implied team over/under total of 27.5 points, according to Pinnacle.
Joining Brees as an excellent piece of their favorable implied team over/under total is his No. 1 receiver, Michael Thomas. The Panthers struggled against No. 1 receivers this year, and FO ranked them 19th defending No. 1 wideouts. Carolina also ceded the fourth most DraftKings points per game to receivers this year.
For Thomas’ part, he carved them up twice with lines of 7-87-1 and 5-70-1. New Orleans’ top pass-catching option is an easy pick as Brees’ best stack partner.
Opposing the Saints’ duo is rookie runner Christian McCaffrey. Running back is loaded this week, and I suspect McCaffrey’s ownership will lag behind at least four other backs if not more. FO ranks the Saints 23rd in run defense and 12th defending running backs in the passing game.
McCaffrey gets a value bump at DraftKings compared to FanDuel thanks to the full-point PPR scoring format at the former. McCaffrey averaged 5.0 receptions per game for 40.7 yards receiving per game, and he complemented his receiving work with 27.2 yards per game rushing. He also did a respectable job of finding pay dirt with seven rushing and receiving touchdowns combined.
With the Panthers serving as seven-point underdogs, McCaffrey and the passing attack could be busy playing catch up most of the contest. In two games against the Saints this year, McCaffrey averaged 16.0 yards rushing per game, 7.0 receptions per game, and 67.0 receiving yards per game with one receiving touchdown.
Todd Gurley (RB – LAR): $9,700 vs. Falcons
Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL): $6,300 @ Rams
Gurley had such a sensational regular season that his name has been bandied about in the MVP discussion. He led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,093) and combined rushing and receiving touchdowns (19). He kicked things up to a new level this year in part due to huge gains as a receiver.
Gurley averaged 4.3 receptions and 52.5 receiving yards per game. He also set a new high with 87.0 rushing yards per game. He’s a true weekly threat to top 100 yards rushing, and he did so in six of 15 games played, including his final two games played in the regular season.
The third-year back is game-script proof, but a 5.5-point spread favoring the host Rams bodes well for Gurley piling up carries. Even though running back is stacked this week, I fully expect Gurley to be the highest owned player at any position.
Opposing Gurley is Freeman. Usually using running backs on opposing teams is a no-no, but, like Gurley, Freeman is a do-it-all back and in no danger of game script rendering him useless. The fourth-year pro’s receiving work slipped this year, but his 2.6 receptions and 22.6 yards receiving per game were nothing to sneeze at, and he added 61.8 yards rushing per game while scoring eight touchdowns in 14 games played.
The matchup is a plus for Freeman. FO ranks the Rams 22nd in defending the run. They’ve allowed the fifth most DraftKings points per game to running backs. Gurley will be locked into all of my lineups, and McCaffrey/Freeman will fill the RB2 and flex spots, respectively, on the bulk of my lineups instead of the other — pricier — stud running backs and a lesser flex.
Corey Davis (WR – TEN): $3,600 @ Chiefs
Davis rounds out the touted plays as one of my favorite bargains. For full disclosure, I also like Albert Wilson ($3,300). Getting back to Davis, his rookie season was underwhelming compared to the hype that accompanied this year’s fifth pick in the NFL Draft. An offense that moved as slow as molasses in January and finished 29th in plays run didn’t do him any favors, nor did Marcus Mariota substantially regressing this year.
Having said that, as an eight-point underdog, the Titans will likely be forced to speed things up to play catch up. In addition to speeding things up, a catch-up flow would probably include a pass-heavy approach, too.
Jacksonville’s lock-down pass defense kept the Titans in check in Week 17, and Davis was targeted just two times and held without a catch. The week prior, though, he tied his season-high in receptions (six) and set a new high in receiving yards (91). Furthermore, Week 17 snapped a three-game streak of five or more targets.
FO ranks the Chiefs 23rd defending the pass and 14th defending No. 2 receivers. Kansas City has also yielded the second most DraftKings points per game to wideouts this year. At the least, Davis should be a solid glue guy who provides valuable salary relief, but there’s upside for more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
