“Is this the best I will ever see from this player?”

It is the most critical question to ask when determining whether to sell or hold a player. Players are best sold when they have produced the best we can expect of them, and their price reflects that performance. Prime sell candidates can be found when their combination of draft pedigree, age and/or talent point in a downward trend.

If you are in doubt, ask yourself: what will a player need to do over the next 12 months to maintain or expand this value? If his performance is outside your range of expected outcomes, sell them.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
I was a big Alvin Kamara fan dating back to November 2016. His skill set as a space player and pass catcher was the perfect fit for Sean Payton’s running back friendly offense. Kamara’s fit with his landing spot was only rivaled by Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas over the past few rookie drafts.

Kamara proceeded to be a rookie star. He finished as the third running back in PPR scoring with 314 points and averaged 19.7 PPG. His performance far surpassed the expectations even for his strongest supporters who argued for him in the conversation at 1.06 in rookie drafts.

As an early second-round dynasty start-up pick, Kamara does not have that much room to rise in value, and there are reasons to think he regresses in 2018. Kamara was the most efficient running back with 1.56 points per target, with only Chris Thompson near his efficiency (1.51). The next best number was Rex Burkhead at 1.38. By way of context, Todd Gurley who was the highest scoring RB in 2017, produced 1.13 points per touch.

Kamara’s efficiency was propped up because he scored a touchdown on 6.47% of his touches, only behind Rod Smith (6.76%) and Burkhead (8.51%). In short, Kamara was extremely efficient at scoring touchdowns and his receptions (6.25 per game), in a way that is unlikely to be reproduced. Kamara is an efficient player, but unlikely to maintain this level of efficiency.

Kamara’s value makes him an interesting sell option. If you are going to sell, approach the deal like you want first round dynasty start-up valuation in return.

Recent trades of Kamara include:

Kamara for Amari Cooper and Pick 2.02.
Kamara for Mike Evans.
Kamara for David Johnson.

Kamara is a great opportunity for an owner that has a portfolio of teams. For example, if you have Kamara on five of your 10 dynasty teams, selling him high on two or three teams can be done for a great haul. His efficiency will likely decline in 2018, which could create an opportunity to repurchase shares of Kamara in other leagues at a lower price at a later point.

Low Pedigree Running Backs
Low pedigree running backs are great players to flip for a profit when you get the opportunity. The 2018 rookie running back class could exceed the 2017 class, which gives fringe starters a significant risk of losing their job in the offseason.

If you trade these running backs now, you negate the risk of them losing their job during free agency or the NFL Draft. Examples of these backs include Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams, and Alex Collins.

Drake emerged as the lead running back in Miami after the trade of Jay Ajayi and an injury to Damien Williams. He is a Day Two pick who never has been used as a workhorse.

Jamaal Williams comes with less pedigree than Drake and faces the same concerns. Williams is less likely to be upset by free agency or the draft, but faces stiffer internal competition.

Both Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones flashed in 2017 before injuries opened the job for Williams. To Williams’s credit, he was able to fend off Jones once he got the job, but is an average athlete with no guarantee he is a long-term starter in Green Bay.

Alex Collins bounced around the league before landing as the starter by necessity in Baltimore. He was successful and performed well in Baltimore, but John Harbaugh recently declined to commit to Collins long term. Baltimore is not a team that targets early in the draft, so Collins’s most significant threat is likely to be that of a rotational committee.

All three are good package opportunities for upgrades at wide receiver or early second round rookie picks that will be safer long-term investments. Packaging with a late second or early third round pick to enter the first-round pick is a safe upgrade. Also look to trade them for wide receivers who have depreciated in value as Drake has returned Sammy Watkins in a one-for-one deal.

Low Profile Wide Receivers
Day Two wide receivers hit as top 24 receivers in their rookie contracts less than 20% of the time. As a result, it is crucial to be selective on Day Two or Day Three receivers, and take the opportunity to flip the receivers for a profit.

Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole have both seen large jumps in value, with Westbrook capable of returning a first-round rookie pick during the season with little production. Cole gives a lesser return, but is still likely worth a second-round rookie pick return. With low historical success rate, they are great sells at those prices.

Cooper Kupp hit as a top 24 receiver, but his offense is filled with weapons and is unlikely to reach a top 15 ceiling. Kupp could also return a first-round rookie pick and was recently traded for Carlos Hyde. These trades represent a good return on what is a low ceiling historical bet, particularly in shallower leagues where ceiling is important.

Jimmy Graham (TE – SEA)
Jimmy Graham finished as a top-six tight end, but that masks a decline. He scored 10 touchdowns on 90 targets, an unsustainable rate. His 520 yards and 3.6 receptions per game were the lowest since his rookie season.

Graham has a history of injuries, is eroding on the field, and entering free agency. Graham is a great sell for a second-round rookie pick.

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Jordan McNamara is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jordan, check out his archive and follow him @McNamaraDynasty.