We’ve got some serious talent to work with on the offensive side of the ball, but as tends to be the case in the playoffs, many of them are in troublesome matchups against excellent defenses. That will make selecting players a bit of a challenge, but I’ve been fortunate enough to pick the minds of some of the top experts in the industry this week which led me to this lineup:
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Quarterback
Matt Ryan (ATL): $7,700 @ PHI
It isn’t as though Ryan is a terrific play against Philly, but he is the clear-cut safest QB this week to me. Tom Brady has been lackluster since he injured his achillies, Case Keenum looked like a backup quarterback to close the season, Big Ben gets the Jags and Drew Brees has to deal with the Vikings. Ryan is the QB to use this week by default! You can make a case for Blake Bortles, but if you watched the past three Jags’ games, you’d realize just how risky that is for a cash game.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette (JAX): $7,900 @ PIT
Part of the reason it is so risky to pick Bortles is that they’ve got this monster who went for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 touches against the Steelers earlier this season. They were stacking the box, but to no avail, he just ran them over all game. With Ryan Shazier out, Fournette is a near lock to post 100 yards on 25+ touches against this struggling defense.
Derrick Henry (TEN): $6,700 @ NE
I’m not chasing points here after he led the Titans past the Chiefs last week with over 190 yards. Rather, I am looking at the matchup against one of the least efficient run defenses in football and the fact that Henry is game script proof because they run even when down two scores. He should get bell cow touches again with DeMarco Murray out, so the floor is very nearly 2x value.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen (MIN): $7,600 vs NO
You may be enamored with Stefon Diggs this week to save $300 but when you consider that he will likely be shadowed by Marshon Lattimore, that option should immediately be off the table. There is a reason Thielen went for 157 yards on 9 receptions in Week 1 versus the Saints and it is because they don’t defend the slot all that well. Case Keenum helped make Thielen one of the top fantasy receivers in football this year and we will see it on full display this weekend.
Nelson Agholor (PHI): $6,400 vs ATL
While Agholor used to be considered a boom or bust player, he has settled into a different role since Carson Wentz went down. Nick Foles has been peppering him with targets. He saw 39 of them between Weeks 13 and 16. As you might imagine, that led to 55 fantasy points in those four weeks. Agholor has the easiest matchup of the weekend with Brian Poole opposite of him, so make sure to save some money and get him in your lineup this weekend.
Mohamed Sanu (ATL): $5,800 @ PHI
I can’t figure out for the life of me why Sanu is still so cheap. He is averaging 7.4 targets per game over the last two months and is a quality receiver. The Falcons are expected to pass a ton this game, as it is senseless to try running against the Eagles. We should expect another 7 to 9 targets from Sanu and a decent shot at getting in the end zone.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (NE): $8,500 vs TEN
You can make a case for Delanie Walker or Zach Ertz this weekend, but let’s get real: Even at this price, Gronk is so far and away the superior talent at the position that we’ve got to spend up to get him. Sure, the Patriots are welcoming back Chris Hogan, Rex Burkhead and James White, but all will be playing at less than 100% which means Gronk could feast on this lousy Titans’ secondary.
Kicker
Wil Lutz (NO): $4,900 @ MIN
The weather will be nasty across the country this weekend so it makes sense to choose one of the kickers playing in the dome. He and Kai Forbath are the same price, but the Saints have afforded him more scoring opportunities than the Vikings for Forbaith so I’m banking on that trend continuing.
Defense/Special Teams
Falcons Defense (ATL): $4,400 @ PHI
The Jags and Steelers are both quality options, but I’m spending down to grab the hot young defense that has been improving all year. In fact, they were the second most efficient defense overall this season and have allowed more than 23 points just once all year. They can get after the quarterback too which is a scary recipe for the Eagles since Nick Foles is abysmal.
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Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.
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