The regular season is over, but there are still NFL daily games to be played through the postseason. The playoffs begin on Saturday, and the Wild Card Round features sizable spreads with no spread smaller than 6.5 points, according to Pinnacle. Favorites are well represented below, but a few players on underdogs are sprinkled in, too.
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Quarterback
Drew Brees (NO): $8,100 vs. Panthers
Brees had an excellent regular season from a reality standpoint, but he failed to put up eye-popping fantasy numbers due to playing opposite a stellar defense and sharing the offensive workload with a supremely talented backfield. While he hasn’t asked to carry the load on offense, nothing in his regular season work suggests he’s incapable of shredding a defense if the game plan calls for it. Football Outsiders (FO) ranks the Panthers sixth defending the run and 10th defending the pass, so it’s possible the Saints take to the air a bit more than usual this week.
Another factor that could prompt Sean Payton to lean on his quarterback a bit more is the fact they’re playing at home. Brees has a lengthy track record of playing better at home than on the road, and this year was no exception.
On the road, Brees tallied 11 touchdown passes, 7.70 yards per pass attempt, 8.02 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and 257.0 passing yards per game, per Pro-Football-Reference. At home, he bumped those numbers up to 12 touchdown passes, 8.47 yards per pass attempt, 8.52 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and 284.8 passing yards per game. In two games against the Panthers this year, Brees averaged 244.5 passing yards per game with four touchdown passes, zero interceptions, and a 74.6% completion percentage.
Running Back
Todd Gurley (LAR): $10,000 vs. Falcons
Gurley was the first player I slotted in on this roster. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites with an implied team over/under total of 27.5 points. The spread projects a favorable game script for Gurley piling up carries, but he’s game-script proof thanks to his receiving prowess.
Gurley’s ability to beat up teams through the air should especially come in handy this week. Atlanta has yielded the fourth most receiving yards, is tied for the ninth most receiving touchdowns (four), and has surrendered the most targets (139) and receptions (110) to running backs this year. The Falcons are tied for the eighth-fewest FanDuel points per game allowed to running backs this year, but that’s largely the product of holding backs to just 10 touchdowns rushing and receiving combined.
Gurley led the NFL in rushing/receiving touchdowns with 19, and he was a half-dozen clear of a two-man tie for the second most. I like the third-year back’s odds of reaching pay dirt. The NFL’s leader in yards from scrimmage (2,093) this year should also have little trouble piling up yards against the Dirty Birds.
Kareem Hunt (KC): $8,200 vs. Titans
A couple spots behind Gurley in yards from scrimmage was Hunt, ranking third with 1,782. The rookie runner also did an outstanding job of scoring touchdowns and ranked tied for sixth in rushing plus receiving touchdowns with 11. Like Gurley, Hunt is tied to a favorable spread (-8.5 points) and implied team over/under total (26.25 points).
Hunt draws a Titans’ team that’s coughed up the most receiving yards (967) to backs this year. The rookie runner is a workhorse, and he rounded back into form down the stretch. Excluding Kansas City’s season finale in which Hunt played only five offensive snaps, he reeled off three straight games of 100-plus yards from scrimmage with at least one touchdown.
In that three-game stretch, his low for touches was 28. As I said, he’s a workhorse. Volume rules the roost for running backs, and when it’s coupled with a skill-set as versatile as Hunt’s, the ceiling is quite high.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,300 vs. Panthers
Thomas is the top stack partner with Brees. He led the team in targets (149), receptions (104), receiving yards (1,245), receptions per game (6.5), receiving yards per game (77.8), and tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions (five). New Orleans’ No. 1 wideout has a great matchup.
FO ranks the Panthers 19th defending No. 1 receivers. Carolina has allowed the fourth most FanDuel points per game to receivers. Furthermore, the second-year wideout has shredded them twice this year with lines of 7-87-1 and 5-70-1.
Ted Ginn Jr. (NO): $5,900 vs. Panthers
Ginn Jr. makes this a three-man stack. Unlike Thomas, Ginn Jr. failed to post impressive numbers against the Panthers in the regular season. The home-run threat does get a boost from playing at home, though.
In his first season with the Saints, Ginn Jr. averaged 13.57 yards per reception and 47.5 receiving yards per game with one touchdown grab on the road, and he averaged 16.28 yards per reception and 58.1 receiving yards per game with three touchdown grabs at home. The bump in numbers coincides nicely with Brees’ bigger-play ability at home.
Rishard Matthews (TEN): $5,500 @ Chiefs
Matthews is underpriced. He was the No. 2 pass-catching option on the Titans this year, and he averaged 3.8 receptions per game, 56.8 receiving yards per game, and led the team with four touchdown receptions. The Titans are 8.5-point underdogs on the road, so while they’d likely like to ride their running game, the spread indicates they could be stuck playing catch up.
A catch-up game script would be favorable for Matthews. He has a plus matchup, too. The Chiefs have allowed the second most FanDuel points per game to receivers, and Matthews gashed them for 105 yards receiving on four receptions last year.
Tight End
Austin Hooper (ATL): $4,800 @ Rams
Simply put, Hooper’s a punt. His ceiling isn’t high, but I’m not enamored with the tight end position this week. Having said that, Hooper isn’t just a mail-it-in selection.
FO ranks the Rams 19th defending tight ends this year, and they’ve proven susceptible to being beaten by the position. Down the stretch they allowed notable lines of 4-100-0 to George Kittle, 5-71-2 to Trey Burton, 1-5-1 and 1-5-1 to Brent Celek in the same game, and 4-70-1 to Evan Engram since their Week 8 bye. The eight touchdown grabs the Rams allowed to tight ends in the regular season were tied for the seventh most.
Kicker
Harrison Butker (KC): $4,900 vs. Titans
It feels odd to say, but the second player locked into this lineup after Gurley was Butker. Kansas City’s 45 field-goal attempts were the most in the NFL in 2017, and the 41 field goals attempted against the Titans this year were tied for the most. Toss in that Butker’s tied to a betting favorite and a nifty implied team over/under total, and he’s an easy selection.
Defense/Special Teams
Bills D/ST (BUF): $4,200 @ Jaguars
The Bills D/ST is the riskiest selection as an 8.5-point underdog on the road, but they’re the cheapest option at the position. Also, despite the Jaguars being absolute favorites, their implied team over/under total of 24 points is behind those sported by the other three betting favorites.
There’s also turnover potential for the Bills D/ST. Blake Bortles threw five interceptions the last two games of the season. Rolling the dice on a road underdog D/ST isn’t fun, but the salary savings are a big deal, and it doesn’t take much squinting to see the Bills D/ST delivering for gamers who roster them.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
