Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9): Game Picks

Here we are, just as everyone predicted, the Jaguars are playing for a shot at the Super Bowl this Sunday (3:05 PM ET). If history tells us anything, defense can win championships and the Jags possess a defense that rivals any of the past great ones. When Vegas came out with the game line, the Patriots were favored to win by 9. Based on that, the experts made their picks against the spread. Things have shifted though since Brady’s hand injury.

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According to reports, Brady jammed his hand and will be good to go. The fact is, there’s no chance Brady and the Patriots’ No. 1 offense won’t be ready to go. Similarly, on the opposite side, the entire Jaguars defense should show up like they have all season and prove why they finished with the No. 1 pass defense. With a 9 point spread, the experts believe Jacksonville can cover. Find out why below.

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Jacksonville Jaguars (+9)	New England Patriots (-9)
62% of Experts	38% of Experts
“I like the Pats to win, but the Jaguars seem very much for real. They could absolutely stage a second straight upset, but even if they don’t, I doubt New England runs away with this one, either.” – Kevin Roberts (Breaking Football) “The key to beating the Patriots is to keep Tom Brady and company off the field. One of the best ways to eat up time and stay on the field is with a workhorse running back. If Fournette runs with purpose and power, if Blake Bortles can play error-free and if the Jacksonville defense can play at the elite level they’re capable of, then the AFC can very well have a new champion.” – Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts) “It’s tough to imagine a Bortles-quarterbacked team going into Foxborough and getting a playoff win. But I do think Leonard Fournette and the Jags defense will keep this one within 1 score. Final: Patriots 23, Jaguars 17” – Jared Smola (Draft Sharks) “The Jaguars will not be intimidated by playing against the Patriots. This is a team that has what it takes to keep the game close: great pass rush and good running game. Their defense can be vulnerable and they will need a superb effort to shutdown Brady the entire game.” – Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy) “I’ll take the points, but I also believe that the Jaguars will win outright. I’ve been saying for months, that I thought the Jags would be the one team that could stop Brady and company. Jacksonville will get pressure on Brady, and we all know what happens when T.B. is uncomfortable.” – Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed) “The Patriots will win this game, but it won’t be easy. The Jaguars are a physical team, with a great defense and a very good rushing attack. Jacksonville will keep it close, but their defense won’t force the turnovers that they forced last week against the Steelers. Patriots win 27-20.” – James Rapien (Get Sports Info) “The more everyone doubts Blake Bortles the more he seems to do enough to get it done. 9 is a big number vs. this defense.” – Ken Zalis (Pressbox) “When talking about the final two teams standing in a conference, there should be no way that a team is favored by more than a touchdown. Some may be scared due to last week with the Steelers hanging 42 points on the Jaguars defense, but if you watched that game, almost every touchdown the Steelers scored was a highlight reel type play. The Patriots offense hasn’t looked the same over the last two months, making this an easy one to take the points, even if you do like the Patriots to win.” – Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros) “I’ve never had any problem bending the knee to the Patriots and House Belichick, but I can’t bring myself to lay this many points against the Jaguars and their Army of the Dead defense.” – Pat Fitzmaurice (The Football Girl) “Blake Bortles is such a wildcard. He has played two mistake-free playoff games that were preceded by five INTs in his final two regular-season contests. The Jaguars’ offensive gameplan works better the less we hear Bortles’ name. Since the Pats will be hell-bent on stopping Leonard Fournette, Bortles will need to contribute for the Jags to have a chance. I think he’ll do OK, and make a few plays to extend drives with his legs. The Jags’ defense is certainly good enough to keep Tom Brady in check. Will it be enough? To cover, but probably not to win at Foxborough.” – John Halpin (RotoWire.com) “Blitzing Brady doesn’t work. However, getting pressure on Brady while not blitzing, a specialty of the Jaguars, is where you can hurt him. Add in Brady’s new hand injury and I’ll take the points.” – Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers) “A 9-point spread seems quite offensive to a Jaguars team that has spent a lot of time proving people wrong, myself included. Even if the Patriots were more consistent with stopping the run, I still wouldn’t feel confident in giving them 9.” – Robert Waziak (Pyromaniac) “The Jaguars are putting everything into a Super Bowl berth. If they can do it in Pittsburgh, they can do it in Foxborough. It would be a major triumph and this team has just the right defense. This is an uncomfortable matchup for the Patriots. If the Jaguars lose, the Patriots will be the ones providing a heartbreak with a late drive to win it.” – Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack) “The Jaguars establish the running game and don’t lose the turnover battle. That’s not enough to win, but keep it closer than the experts think.” – Ben Standig (CSN Mid-Atlantic) – Kevin English (Draft Sharks) – Dan Harris (FantasyPros) – Doug Orth (FFToday) – Sean Koerner (STATS) – Brad Richter (Going For 2) – Raymond Summerlin (Rotoworld) – Dan Clasgens (Pro Football Focus)	“This was tough for me, as a close game wouldn’t surprise, but ultimately I’m taking the easy route and backing Bill Belichick versus Blake Bortles.” – Dalton Del Don (Yahoo! Sports) “The Jaguars built an early lead against a Steelers’ team looking past them, and by the time the Steelers woke up it was too late. Credit Jacksonville for executing in all phases, but we’d be foolish to expect New England to look as ill-prepared.” – Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR) “Hopefully Brady’s hand is no big deal. Jags can’t hide Bortles in this one.” – Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports) “This is where the fun ends for Bortles. The Patriots defense has its issues, but they still know how to take away a team’s strength (see: my point about Derrick Henry last week). They’ll force Bortles to beat them, and I don’t see that being possible.” – Jake Ciely (RotoExperts) “The Patriots are the kind of team that can put an inexperienced QB in a hole early, and while this has some “grind it out” potential, I think this boils down to Bortles faltering through the second half in an effort to keep pace. Folks will be in on JAX to cover after last week’s astonishing showing, but New England doesn’t employ Todd Haley and should be just fine en route to yet another Super Bowl.” – Nick Mariano (RotoBaller) “The Jags’ weak schedule led them to playing in few negative game scripts this season. We will see the true colors of Bortles if they play from behind and it will lead to a blowout.” – Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros) “Warren Sharp did an excellent analysis this week on how playing something other than “11” personnel on offense has produced much more success against the Jaguars. I’ll guess the Patriots are sharp enough to also realize that. And they have enough options on offense to exploit that. Plus, the Jags already used up the rest of their points for the year last week.” – Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks) “After seeing the success that the Steelers had in attacking the flats especially with Vance McDonald, we know how the Pats will attack the Jags. They will use no huddle to tire out the front four, and have too many quick skill position guys to deal with in Hogan, Amendola, Burkhead, and James White. Also, you have to favor the Pats D in selling out vs the run, and making Bortles best them through the air.” – Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball) “Tom Brady mic drop. Blake Bortles isn’t going to go to New England and dethrone the Patriots. Experience is key in the playoffs and I’ll take Brady and Belichick who have combined for 26 playoffs wins together, over a young Jaguars team.” – Mitchell Renz (Gridiron Experts) “Tom Brady versus Blake Bortles. The Jaguars should be underdogs of closer to what Tennessee was, considering those teams are close to equal (most of their results versus common opponents were similar).” – Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball) – Jeff Ratcliffe (Pro Football Focus) – Greg Smith (TwoQBs) – Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)