There will be many fantasy football mock drafts for the 2018 NFL season, but I can’t help but think that the first is always the most fun. There will obviously be countless moving parts including all of the newcomers from the NCAA. While I did factor in where those rookies are likely to be selected, I did not draft any of them only because not knowing the system they will fall into makes it near impossible to make a case for them. With that said, Saquon Barkley will likely be a first-round pick wherever he goes while Calvin Ridley, Lamar Jackson and a handful of running backs will all be fantasy viable from the get-go. With all that said, let’s jump into the meat and potatoes. I built a 12-man roster in a 12-team league using the 10th pick to draft and here is how it turned out.
1.10 Leonard Fournette (RB – JAX)
While Fournette slowed down later in the season, he was also playing on a sprained ankle and with a quarterback that did nothing to keep defenses from constantly stacking the box against Fournette. In fact, the box was stacked against him far more than any other feature back in football and he still managed 14.9 standard league fantasy points per game. That was fifth in football an in front of players like Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and LeSean McCoy. If you give the man an Alex Smith or even Teddy Bridgewater then the sky is the limit.
To put it simply, tight ends suck. I tried playing the streamer game there and I while I hope you managed to avoid using Benjamin Watson one week and Marcedes Lewis the next, it was also a valuable lesson to learn. Having a top-tier tight end to use from week to week is extremely valuable. This has been evidenced by the fact that each time Gronk has been a top 12 VBD fantasy player in every season he has stayed healthy including 2017. I’ll cross my fingers for health for him again in 2018.
While it makes sense to pick a quarterback later, there is a spot where everyone becomes a strong value pick, and in 2018, that may be before Rodgers’ ADP. With his injury, many will naturally avoid him, but the matter of the fact is that he has been so dominant in fantasy football that the difference between him and Tom Brady was larger than the difference between Brady and Blake Bortles over the previous three years. If you have Rodgers on your team and he stays healthy, you’ve got yourself over 100 VBD and you can’t say that about anyone else being picked outside the top 20 spots.
4.39 Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
Don’t look now, but McCaffrey ended the year as the #15 running back in standard leagues and that was with them screwing around with Jonathan Stewart taking a bunch of the work that should have belonged to McCaffery. In PPR leagues, he was #10, just 2 points behind Leonard Fournette. Next year with what should be a bigger workload, McCaffery should be as safe as running backs come because of his game-proof skill-set and the fact that he is the Panthers’ top wide receiver on top of seeing 10 carries per game.
It ended up oddly that I am just now picking my first wideout, but in the first four rounds, you’ve got to take value as it comes then figure the rest of later. With top-tier options off the board, I want to be sure and get someone I can rely on here from week to week. Tate is that man. Outside of Antonio Brown, Tate is the only receiver with at least 90 receptions in each of the last four years. Granted, he won’t score a ton of touchdowns, but I’ll take his 1,000 yards to the bank in the fifth round.
6.63 D’onta Foreman (RB – TEX)
I’ve got to admit, this draft position is unlikely for Foreman, but it is where I’ve been seeing him go in early expert circles. More likely, he will either be a top 40 pick or just outside the top 100. It all depends on whether the Texans are willing to reccomit to another lackluster year of Lamar Miller. If they do, Foreman is a prime backup to own for the liklihood that he steals the job. My guess, however, is that they cut bait with Miller and make Foreman a bell cow heading into 2018. He can handle the role and has enough talent to go nuts on the league with Watson back under center.
Prior to the divisonal round contest versus New England, everyone considered Davis a bust and his ADP was likely going to be outside the top 110. His two touchdown performance should blow up his stock, but I’m still willing to pay the neccessary price. He is an elite talent and it showed at times during the season. His injury forced Davis to miss training camp and the pre-season so he was figuring out the offense on the fly and as you might expect, it took a while. He may just finish 2018 as a top 10 wideout, but if not, he will still be the #1 wideout for a bounceback Marcus Mariota which should be enough to justify drafting him in the 7th.
Unfortunately, we didn’t get to see what the Jimmy Garroppolo effect would do to Garcon. Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise, however, seeing that his ADP will end up 30 spots lower than it should be. Don’t forget that Kyle Shannahan and Garcon are a great combo, and when you add the fact that Jimmy G took the 49ers from an offense that scored just 17 points per game to one that scored 28.8, then you’ve got to love the prospect of Garcon having a monster season as his #1 wideout.
9.106 Duke Johnson (RB – CLE)
If you are looking for a running back at this point in the draft, you can go get a Frank Gore/Isaiah Crowell type that is all saftey no upside, or perhaps the opposite with a Marlon Mack/Chris Carson type who have plenty of upside but could be cut-worthy within two weeks. With Johnson, we get the best of both worlds. Threre is a chance the Browns wake up to the fact that he is the best back on this roster and they give him 15 touches per game. Even if they don’t we can fall back on the fact that he has week to week safety that outmatches LeSean McCoy and other workhorse backs. Johnson proved start-worthy in 12 of 16 games which was among the top 10 backs in fantasy football last year.
10.111 Donte Moncrief (WR – IND)
At this moment, Moncrief is projected to be taken in the 12th or 13th round of 12 team leagues. With that said, even if that is his ADP, there is no chance I’m going to allow anyone the opportunity to snipe me on him. Andrew Luck should be returning and when he is healthy, Moncrief is his Jordy Nelson. The Colts’ wideout has freak athleticism and is still just 24 years old so that breakout could be right around the corner. Don’t forget that he had 7 touchdowns in just 7 starts during the 2016 season and had his injury not taken place, the breakout likely would have already come.
11.130 Terrelle Pryor (WR – DAL)
This is all about upside, and once we get out of the top 10 rounds, that what you should typically be shooting for. There is always depth to be found on the waiver wire, so the worst case scenario is that you end up dropping him for this year’s version of Marqise Lee or Adam Thielen. The best case scenario is obviously a league-winning breakout, which as we know, is quite possible with the unbelievably talented Pryor. Perhaps all he needs is a change of scenery where he isn’t the #1, and that is exactly what I’ve predicted with him going to Dallas to play opposite of Dez Bryant.
12.135 Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI)
When Matt Nagy was sniffing around for a head coaching job, he had to be licking his chops about the prospect of taking on the Bears’ roster. Not only does he have a 1st overall talent at quarterback and a quality offensive line, but he has another Kareem Hunt type back in Cohen. We all know he was underutilized his rookie season, but that should cause him to slip under the radar in 2018 fantasy drafts so I couldn’t be happier. No, he isn’t going to take over for Jordan Howard, but 10 to 15 touches per game for an electric back was plenty for Alvin Kamara.
Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.
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