What We Learned: Top 12 Fantasy Scorers (PPR Formats)
Did you know that the top-12 fantasy running backs averaged 289.6 points during the regular season? The top-12 fantasy wide receivers averaged 144.5 targets. The top-12 tight ends averaged 714.8 receiving yards. The top-12 quarterbacks averaged 3,997 passing yards and 27.6 touchdowns. Every fantasy player imagines drafting a team with top-12 fantasy scorers across multiple positions, but you may be asking yourself one question. What does it take to make that a reality? The preferred method to analyze a player’s production at various positions is through a per-games lens. It has the strongest year-to-year correlations because they represent a player’s average performance. T.J. Hernandez, founder of Roster Coach and 4 for 4 Football Associate Editor, wrote a series years ago providing insight into the most predictable statistics from year to year for each position. This article will provide you a line of sight on what you should know about the top-12 fantasy scorers in PPR formats at the running back, wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback positions.
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THE TOP 12 RBs
| Player | Season | ruATTs | ruYDS | ruTDS | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | reTDS | GMS | PPR Points |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2017 | 24.2 | 98.3 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 24.9 | 0.2 | 10 | 203.2 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 2017 | 21.4 | 86.1 | 0.6 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 43.7 | 0.1 | 15 | 341.6 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2017 | 20.6 | 80 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 23.2 | 0.1 | 13 | 230.2 |
| Todd Gurley | 2017 | 18.6 | 87 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 52.5 | 0.4 | 15 | 383.3 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2017 | 71.1 | 71.1 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 28 | 0.1 | 16 | 263.6 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2017 | 17.8 | 69.1 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 29.8 | 0.2 | 16 | 288.1 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2017 | 17 | 82.9 | 0.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 28.4 | 0.2 | 16 | 295.2 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2017 | 15 | 58.8 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 21.9 | 0 | 16 | 234 |
| Mark Ingram | 2017 | 14.4 | 70.2 | 0.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 26 | 0 | 16 | 278 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2017 | 7.5 | 45.5 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 51.6 | 0.3 | 16 | 314.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2017 | 7.3 | 27.2 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 5 | 40.7 | 0.3 | 16 | 228.6 |
| Duke Johnson | 2017 | 5.1 | 21.8 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 43.3 | 0.2 | 16 | 216.1 |
Source: RotoViz Screener
I have ranked the top-12 RBs according to their number of rushing attempts per game. Volume is critical to the position considering how many NFL coaches deploy a committee approach. Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Le’Veon Bell led the way with a high number of rushing attempts per game. Bell differentiated himself with his usage as a receiver out of the backfield. All three of these RBs had a positive rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation which suggests they outperformed their volume. Elliott, Fournette, and Bell are viewed in the top-6 fantasy running backs according to Mike Tagliere’s early 2018 rankings. Todd Gurley was a league winner averaging a monster 25.6 fantasy points per game. LeSean McCoy underperformed his volume as suggested by his negative rushing and receiving fantasy points over expectation. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara finished within the top-6 in fantasy points. Kamara was ridiculously effective on a limited number of touches. Christian McCaffrey, on the other hand, was primarily used as a receiver. His stock could trend upward heading into the 2018 regular season if the Panthers use McCaffrey more as a runner. He finished the regular season with 117 carries, 435 rushing yards, and two touchdowns. The biggest surprise on this list is Duke Johnson. Did you know that he scored more fantasy points than Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, and Lamar Miller? He was very efficient with his low number of touches and still managed positive fantasy points over expectation as a runner and as a receiver.
| Player | GMS | Snaps | Snap Pct | Util % | PPR PTS |
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 796 | 77 | 46 | 383.3 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 15 | 945 | 85 | 45 | 341.6 |
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 464 | 45 | 47 | 314.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 670 | 65 | 50 | 295.2 |
| Melvin Gordon | 16 | 750 | 71 | 49 | 288.1 |
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 570 | 55 | 53 | 278 |
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 722 | 68 | 50 | 263.6 |
| Carlos Hyde | 16 | 786 | 71 | 42 | 234 |
| Leonard Fournette | 13 | 564 | 50 | 56 | 230.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 16 | 757 | 70 | 30 | 228.6 |
| Duke Johnson | 16 | 565 | 53 | 31 | 216.1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 10 | 591 | 68 | 47 | 203.2 |
Source: FantasyData
Bell, Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Carlos Hyde, and McCaffrey were the only top-12 RBs to play 70 percent or more of their respective team’s offensive snaps. All of these RBs had a high utilization percentage during the regular season. This metric shows you what percentage of snaps the RB touched the football or was targeted.
THE TOP 12 WRs
| Player | Season | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | reTDS | GMS | PPR Points |
| Antonio Brown | 2017 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 109.5 | 0.6 | 14 | 310.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2017 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 91.9 | 0.9 | 15 | 309.8 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2017 | 10.1 | 7 | 61.7 | 0.6 | 16 | 260 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2017 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 72.2 | 0.4 | 16 | 261.4 |
| Keenan Allen | 2017 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 87.1 | 0.4 | 16 | 284.2 |
| Michael Thomas | 2017 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 77.8 | 0.3 | 16 | 258.5 |
| Julio Jones | 2017 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 90.2 | 0.2 | 16 | 251.9 |
| A.J. Green | 2017 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 67.2 | 0.5 | 16 | 226.8 |
| Adam Thielen | 2017 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 79.8 | 0.2 | 16 | 239.7 |
| Golden Tate | 2017 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 62.7 | 0.3 | 16 | 224.5 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2017 | 7 | 5 | 78.9 | 0.5 | 16 | 239.2 |
| Marvin Jones | 2017 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 68.8 | 0.6 | 16 | 225.1 |
Source: RotoViz Screener
I have ranked the top-12 WRs according to their number of targets per game. Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, and Larry Fitzgerald were the only WRs to average double-digit targets per game during the regular season. All of these receivers had a positive receiving fantasy points over expectation. Hopkins (35) and Brown (30) were the only ones to have a target share of 30 percent or higher. Tyreek Hill (105) and Marvin Jones (107) both finished in the top-12 but had less than 110 targets. Hill had nine receptions for 40 yards or more and scored five touchdowns on targets outside of the red zone. He had the highest receiving fantasy points over expectation among this group. Allen, Brown, and Hopkins were the only WRs with more fantasy points than Michael Thomas from Week 10 on. The lack of touchdowns from Thomas and Julio Jones dragged down their fantasy production. Landry and Allen led all WRs with 24 red zone targets. The perception is that Jones is not targeted in the red zone, but he actually had 2o which resulted in five receiving touchdowns. Targets, receptions, and receiving yards per game are very predictive from one season to the next. Air Yards is another advanced statistic that should not be overlooked.
| Name | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | Air Yards | YAC | reTDS | Target Share |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 174 | 96 | 1378 | 2243 | 359 | 13 | 0.35 |
| Antonio Brown | 162 | 101 | 1533 | 2176 | 481 | 9 | 0.3 |
| Keenan Allen | 159 | 102 | 1393 | 1479 | 501 | 6 | 0.27 |
| Jarvis Landry | 161 | 112 | 987 | 1023 | 498 | 9 | 0.27 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 161 | 109 | 1156 | 1354 | 408 | 6 | 0.27 |
| Michael Thomas | 149 | 104 | 1245 | 1424 | 425 | 5 | 0.28 |
| Julio Jones | 148 | 88 | 1444 | 2105 | 486 | 3 | 0.28 |
| Adam Thielen | 144 | 91 | 1277 | 1506 | 454 | 4 | 0.27 |
| Tyreek Hill | 105 | 75 | 1183 | 1227 | 451 | 7 | 0.21 |
| A.J. Green | 143 | 75 | 1078 | 1910 | 297 | 8 | 0.28 |
| Marvin Jones | 107 | 61 | 1101 | 1624 | 195 | 9 | 0.19 |
| Golden Tate | 120 | 92 | 1003 | 716 | 613 | 5 | 0.21 |
Source: AirYards.com
It should not come as a surprise that Hopkins, Brown, and Jones are at the top of this list. They are the only WRs to accumulate 2,000 or more Air Yards. RotoViz contributor Josh Hermsmeyer introduced WR Air Yards at RotoViz in August 2016. They are the total number of yards thrown toward a WR on a play in which he is targeted, both complete and incomplete. If you add them up over a game or a season, you get a receiver’s total Air Yards. They measure the potential yards a WR would have produced if he caught the football and then was immediately tackled. Air Yards, as Hermsmeyer describes it, provides us another way to quantify volume.
Landry’s production was defined by his high number of touchdowns and receptions. He had a low number of Air Yards but led all WRs with 112 receptions. Landry became the first WR to have 100 or more receptions and not have 1,000 or more receiving yards according to Pro Football Focus. Let’s apply this same methodology to the TE position.
THE TOP 12 TEs
| Player | Season | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | reTDS | GMS | PPR Points |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2017 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 83.3 | 0.6 | 13 | 235.5 |
| Travis Kelce | 2017 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 69.2 | 0.5 | 15 | 225.3 |
| Zach Ertz | 2017 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 58.9 | 0.6 | 14 | 204.4 |
| Evan Engram | 2017 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 48.1 | 0.4 | 15 | 173.6 |
| Jack Doyle | 2017 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 46 | 0.3 | 15 | 173 |
| Delanie Walker | 2017 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 50.4 | 0.2 | 16 | 178.5 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2017 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 32.5 | 0.6 | 16 | 167.4 |
| Jared Cook | 2017 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 42.9 | 0.1 | 16 | 134.7 |
| Jason Witten | 2017 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 35 | 0.3 | 16 | 149 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2017 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 33.2 | 0.5 | 16 | 158.2 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2017 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 32.6 | 0.2 | 16 | 137.2 |
| Cameron Brate | 2017 | 4.8 | 3 | 36.9 | 0.4 | 16 | 142.9 |
Source: RotoViz Screener
I have ranked the top-12 TEs according to their number of targets per game. Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski were the only TEs to generate 1,000 or more receiving yards. It should not come as a surprise that they were also led the position in Air Yards.
| Name | reTRGS | reRECS | reYDS | Air Yards | YAC | reTDS | Target Share |
| Travis Kelce | 122 | 83 | 1038 | 1277 | 406 | 8 | 0.24 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 106 | 69 | 1083 | 1284 | 344 | 8 | 0.23 |
| Zach Ertz | 110 | 74 | 824 | 862 | 243 | 8 | 0.23 |
| Delanie Walker | 111 | 74 | 807 | 1075 | 245 | 3 | 0.22 |
| Evan Engram | 115 | 64 | 722 | 1015 | 306 | 6 | 0.2 |
| Jack Doyle | 108 | 80 | 690 | 530 | 337 | 4 | 0.24 |
| Jimmy Graham | 94 | 56 | 514 | 712 | 211 | 10 | 0.17 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 81 | 57 | 532 | 614 | 224 | 8 | 0.15 |
| Jason Witten | 87 | 63 | 560 | 596 | 105 | 5 | 0.18 |
| Cameron Brate | 77 | 48 | 589 | 715 | 141 | 6 | 0.13 |
| Benjamin Watson | 79 | 61 | 522 | 489 | 266 | 4 | 0.14 |
| Jared Cook | 86 | 54 | 687 | 781 | 240 | 2 | 0.15 |
Source: AirYards.com
Gronkowski generated 16.2 fantasy points per game while Kelce produced 15.2. Zach Ertz also proved to be dependable for fantasy owners week in and week out and was a tremendous value given his ADP or average draft position. Evan Engram had his moments throughout the season but only produced 11.6 points per game. He also had a negative receiving fantasy points over expectation along with other highly touted TEs Jimmy Graham and Delanie Walker. Engram led all TEs in dropped passes with 11 according to Pro Football Focus. If you are not able to draft Gronkowski, Kelce, or Ertz then you are better off streaming the position in 2018. Hope is not a winning fantasy football strategy.
Let’s close out this article by discussing the QB position.
THE TOP 12 QBs
| Name | Season | paATTS | Games | Fantasy Points |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2017 | 37.4 | 15 | 260.7 |
| Tom Brady | 2017 | 36.31 | 16 | 295.5 |
| Philip Rivers | 2017 | 36 | 16 | 270.4 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2017 | 35.38 | 16 | 273.6 |
| Russell Wilson | 2017 | 34.56 | 16 | 347.9 |
| Carson Wentz | 2017 | 33.85 | 13 | 281.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2017 | 33.75 | 16 | 277.6 |
| Alex Smith | 2017 | 33.67 | 15 | 295.2 |
| Drew Brees | 2017 | 33.56 | 16 | 262.6 |
| Jared Goff | 2017 | 31.93 | 15 | 255.3 |
| Cam Newton | 2017 | 30.81 | 16 | 299.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 2017 | 30.56 | 16 | 260.7 |
Source: RotoViz Screener
Passing yards per game is the most predictive QB stat from one season to the next. Russell Wilson and Cam Newton‘s rushing yards helped to propel them to finish as the QB1 and QB2. Wilson scored 48.44 more fantasy points than any other quarterback this season. He also led the Seahawks in rushing yards and had a positive passing and rushing fantasy points over expectation. Rushing yards and rushing touchdowns can be deceptive because very few quarterbacks consistently run out of the pocket. The biggest surprises on this list are Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, and Jared Goff. The latter two were essentially free in fantasy drafts this past summer.
My biggest takeaway from the Eagles' 2017 season is that Carson Wentz is 6'5, 240, strong arm, accuracy now a strength, mobility, throws on the run, smart, tough, mature, unafraid to make hard throws, open to coaching, and his teammates love him. Ceiling is "Best player in NFL."
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) January 10, 2018
Wentz can be viewed as a top-four fantasy QB heading into the 2018 season. Tom Brady surprised fantasy owners with his performance this season. He averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1 through 10. Brady only averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game from Week 10 to Week 17. His passer rating went from 110.9 to 87.3 over these time frames. The preferred approach to the QB position in 2018 would be to draft one early or stream.
CONCLUSION
It is never too early to begin looking to the 2018 fantasy football season. The purpose of comprehending what happened in the past is to put you in a better position to identify trends in order to correctly predict the future. The NFL calendar does not stop and neither should your own analysis. You can find me @EricNMoody, and I am always open to answering questions or discussing football. I will continue to be very active with FantasyPros during the offseason helping to provide analysis on free agency, the draft, and other events. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
