Entering 2017 fantasy baseball drafts many of us considered Markus Lynn Betts the consensus number two pick after some guy named Mike Trout. The reasoning was sound. In 2016, at just 23 years old, Betts slashed .318/.363/.534 while hitting 31 homers and stealing 26 bases. That’s incredible. He contributed in every aspect of fantasy production, even scoring 122 runs and driving in 113. At such a young age many fantasy analysts expected him to maintain that level of production heading into last year.
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It would be a stretch to call Betts a bust in 2017 fantasy drafts, but players who held the second overall pick and selected him certainly would like a do-over. Betts’ triple slash line fell to .264/.344/.459. His home run total fell by seven, down to 24. He still managed to steal 26 bases, score 101 runs, and drive in 102. It wasn’t a bad season. It just didn’t meet the high expectations.
Let’s look at the power department first. I think it’s unfair to call the 24 homers a disappointment. Betts was drafted by the Red Sox as a slap hitting infielder. In the minors in 2012, he hit a total of zero home runs. The fact that he has already accumulated 78 long balls at the big league level is a testament to how much he has developed as a complete baseball player. However, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if his 31 homers from 2016 are ultimately a career-high for Betts. Fantasy players should be comfortable projecting around 25 homers from him for the next few years.
The batting average is a bigger concern. It fell .054 points from 2016 to 2017. Instead of writing Betts off as an underachiever we should look into why that average fell. A good place to start is batting average on balls in play. “BABIP” is useful because it can tell us how lucky (or unlucky) a player gets over the course of a season. It’s not perfect, but it’s always worth looking into.
In a little over three major league seasons, Betts has a BABIP of .303 and a career average of .292. This includes last year. In 2017 alone, however, he had a BABIP of .268 and an average of .264. This means there’s certainly a case to be made that he was unlucky. What else could have contributed to that low number? Was he hurt? Maybe. I just doubt that the skills of a 25-year-old athletic freak are already escaping him. Regardless of the reason, his average fell last year it’s a good bet to expect it to positively regress back to the .300 mark in 2018.
If we can pencil in Betts for a .300 average, around 25 homers, and 25 more steals, then he should once again be considered a high first-round fantasy pick in 2018. He’s no longer the consensus number two pick, but I wouldn’t hesitate to draft the young superstar anywhere after that. All aboard the Mookie hype train.
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Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, follow him @toomuchtuma.
