After analylizing a 10 team AL-Only mock draft last week, we switch over to the senior circuit this week and do the same exact thing. Got about 15 minutes free? That’s all you need to complete a mock draft with the draft simulator here at FantasyPros. So why not do one, or two, or 20?
There are plenty of reasons to be excited about an NL-only draft in 2018. First, there’s a lot of SP1/SP2 pitchers in the NL. As you can see below, I was able to grab two top-10 National League arms in my first four picks.
Second, there are a ton of intriguing young up and coming players in the National League this season, led by NL Rookie of the Year front-runner, Ronald Acuna. He’s not even the only high-upside youngster on his own team, either.
Alright, enough chit chat, let’s get to the draft. I provided a pick by pick analysis as well as some trends I noticed throughout the draft. Enjoy!
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Feel the Power!
1.5 Bryce Harper (OF – WAS) (Pick 5 Overall)
Having Bryce Harper fall to me at pick five felt like I won the freaking lottery. No offense to Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Trea Turner, and Clayton Kershaw, but Harper was my No. 1 player on the board. He was on pace for another monster season before a freak knee injury caused by a wet first base bag in a game that should never have been played. Harper is a four-category fantasy stud and if he starts running a little more, this pick will be considered highway robbery.
2.6 Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF – PHI) (Pick 16)
I’ve been drinking the Rhys Hoskins Kool-Aid all winter, so why stop now? I could’ve taken Noah Syndergaard here, who went with the next pick, but with all the starting pitching depth in the National League, I decided to grab another slugger here. Hoskins blasted 18 home runs in only 170 at-bats last season and should have no problems getting up in the 40+ range. On top of that, a solid approach at the plate should yield a decent batting average as well.
Aces Wild
3.5 Yu Darvish (SP – CHC) (Pick 25)
These next two picks make me very happy that I passed on Thor last round. Darvish in the National League is a borderline top-10 fantasy option. After a mid-season trade to the Dodgers, Darvish had a 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, and 11.1 K/9 over 49.2 IP in nine starts. His numbers in 17 interleague starts are even better. If he can stay healthy for 30 starts, Darvish could very well end up as a top-5 NL SP this season.
4.6 Aaron Nola (SP – PHI) (Pick 36)
After grabbing Darvish last pick, I thought the chances were slim that Aaron Nola would fall here. Well, early birthday present for me, I guess. Nola doesn’t have a blazing heater, but he pitches like a 15-year veteran, locates his pitches well, and has one of the best curveballs in the Major Leagues. In each of the last two seasons, Nola has had a K/9 near 10 (9.8 and 9.9), despite having a low-90s fastball, which just shows how good of a pitcher he truly is and the overall depth of pitching in the National League.
Speed Thrills
5.5 Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL) (Pick 45)
After grabbing two power bats and two pitchers with my first four picks, I figured it was time to grab some speed. Cain isn’t considered a burner by any means, but he’s averaged 27.3 steals per 600 at-bats in his career with an 83.6% success rate. Milwaukee ranked 2nd in the Major Leagues last season in stolen bases, so an uptick in steals could be coming for Cain this season. On top of that, Cain has hit .300 or better in three of the last four seasons.
6.6 Ozzie Albies (2B – ATL) (Pick 56)
I recently said that I have a man crush on Albies the size of Nomar Garciaparra’s nose. Sorry, Nomar. After a productive minor league career, Albies burst onto the scene last year with a great 217 at-bat debut with the Braves. If you project his numbers out over 600 at-bats, Albies would have 17 home runs, 22 steals, 77 RBI, 94 runs scored, and a .286/.354/.456/.810 slash line. Not too shabby for the youngest player in the Major Leagues. There is plenty of additional speed potential with Albies as well and he could easily come close to 40 steals this season. There are a lot of good young players in the National League this season. Make sure you get in on the fun and grab one or two.
7.5 Ronald Acuna (OF – ATL) (Pick 65)
See what I mean? Another high-upside youngster. Ronald Acuna has yet to take a single at-bat in the Major Leagues, but the upside here is endless. In 557 minor league at-bats last season, Acuna put on a hitting display. He slashed .325/.374/.522/.896 with 21 home runs, 82 RBI, 88 runs, and 44 stolen bases. The Braves are likely to keep Acuna in the minors for a month or so to gain an extra year of player control, but even in five months of action, Acuna could flirt with a 15/30 season with the potential for more. He’s that good.
Filling out Positions of Need
8.6 Sean Doolittle (RP – WAS) (Pick 76)
The goal was to grab a closer in rounds six or seven, but I couldn’t pass up the chance to grab Albies and Acuna. Luckily, I’m still able to grab the closer for one of the best teams in the National League here in round eight. Dr. Doolittle posted a career-high 24 saves last season along with his usual strong ratios, and as the Nationals full-time closer could eclipse 30-saves for the first time in his career this season.
9.5 Evan Longoria (3B – SFG) (Pick 85)
Eight rounds in and I haven’t even touched the left side of my infield yet. Longoria hasn’t been an all-star since 2010, but he’s still a 30/100 threat and has exceeded 600 at-bats in each of the last five seasons. Third base is a position you can wait on a little bit this year. I had Longoria as my No. 8 3B, and there are still guys like Mike Moustakas and Todd Frazier hanging around without a job, too.
10.6 Arodys Vizcaino (RP – ATL) (Pick 96)
I came into this draft wanting two closers and grabbed my 2nd one here in round 10. Now that Jim Johnson is finally out of the picture, Vizcaino has no major competition at closer for the Braves. Now that his control woes are semi in check, Vizcaino could be in store for a big season in 2018, especially if he keeps his ratios low and his strikeout rate high.
The All-Upside Club
11.5 Orlando Arcia (SS – MIL) (Pick 105)
Getting a 20/20 caliber shortstop with a decent batting average is great value this late. Arcia has 19 home runs and 22 steals in his first 707 at-bats and hit a respectable .277 last season. With the new additions in Milwaukee, Arcia is likely to bat lower in the order, thus suppressing his RBI/R upside, but his power and speed is nice at this stage of the draft. Plus, I needed a shortstop and the position really drops off quickly after Arcia.
12.6 Dinelson Lamet (SP – SDP) (Pick 116)
In all honestly, I like the next man I drafted more, but with how this draft was going, Lamet likely would’ve been gone by my next pick. Lamet had a 10.9 K/9 rate last season which ranked 9th amongst the 134 pitchers that pitched more than 100 innings last season. That K upside is why you want him. His ERA and walk rate are a little higher than I would like, but there’s no better place to lower that ERA than Petco Park. However, how much Lamet improves his walk rate will determine just how good he can be in 2018 and beyond.
13.5 Luiz Gohara (SP – ATL) (Pick 125)
Remember my man crush on Albies? Well, here is the pitching equivalent of that man crush. Gohara has two elite pitches in his upper-90s heater and nasty, wipeout slider. His changeup and control are lagging behind a tad, but Gohara is the real deal and has a chance at NL Rookie of the Year honors this season. He’s posted a sub-3 ERA and 10+ K/9 in each of the last two seasons and pitched well in five Major League starts down the stretch with a 9.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 4.94 ERA (2.75 FIP).
14.6 Maikel Franco (3B – PHI) (Pick 136)
Remember how I said that third base was deep? Franco’s upside might not be as high as it once was, but grabbing a 25/80 threat after pick 125 in an NL-Only draft is some pretty good value. He’s a better hitter than his .230 average indicates. In fact, he was actually very unlucky last season, as his .234 BABIP ranked 141st out of 144 qualified batters. A return to the .260-.280 range seems likely for Franco this season.
15.5 Ryan McMahon (1B – COL) (Pick 145)
McMahon can flat out rake. And what better place to rake than Coors Field? After hitting .355/.403/.583/.986 with 39 doubles, 20 home runs, 11 steals, and 88 RBI last season in the minors, McMahon has a chance to start at first base for the Rockies out of the gate and will be a steal this late if given 500+ at-bats. I can’t stress enough to grab a high upside youngster or two this season. The payout could be huge, and at this stage of the draft, there’s not much risk at all.
Filling out the Roster and Sprinkling in some Upside
16.6 David Peralta (OF – ARI) (Pick 156)
After grabbing the rest of my outfield early, David Peralta rounded out my starting outfield here in round 16. Guys like Peralta, Dexter Fowler, etc., seem to always fall in drafts due to not having high upside, but Peralta is proving he can be a stable source of batting average with 20/10 upside if he can stay healthy for a full season. Don’t shy away from these types of players late in drafts.
17.5 Joe Musgrove (SP – PIT) (Pick 165)
The starting pitcher position gets thin in a hurry after the middle rounds so grabbing some depth is highly recommended. Musgrove is an imposing force on the mound at 6’5 and 260 pounds. Now with a rotation spot all to himself with the Pirates, he could provide some decent value this season, Musgrove has solid control and won’t get into trouble with high walk totals. He’s already experienced some discomfort in his throwing shoulder, but it’s not expected to make him miss any extended time.
18.6 Carl Edwards (RP – CHC) (Pick 176)
It’s rare that Brandon Morrow stays healthy and effective over a full season. He was able to record a 2.06 ERA in 45 appearances last season, but combined for only 44 combined starts and relief appearance the four seasons before that. It’s key to pick up one or two good setup men in AL or NL-Only leagues that have a chance of closing later in the season. Edwards is my pick to lead this Cubs team in saves this season, so this pick was easy. He definitely has the stuff to succeed in the role, as evidenced by his 3.28 career ERA and 12.8 K/9. All he needs is the opportunity.
19.5 Lewis Brinson (OF – MIA) (Pick 185)
He might be on a dumpster fire of an offense now, but at least Lewis Brinson has a clear path to playing time in Miami. The toolsy outfielder has had a rough go of it during his brief taste of the Majors, batting .106 (5/47) with a 30.9% strikeout rate. However, there aren’t many better power/speed prospects set to debut in 2018, and Brinson should have no trouble getting 500+ at-bats this season. If he does, a 20/20 season is likely and his minor league track record suggests an average in the .260-.280 range. He’s a great late-round sleeper in any format, especially NL-Only leagues.
20.6 Nick Senzel (3B – CIN) (Pick 196)
I usually only like to stash one player in single-year leagues, but with Acuna likely to be a full-time Major Leaguer by May, I grabbed a second one here in round 20. Senzel is a polished hitter and will likely win a couple batting titles before his career comes to an end. Pair that with above-average speed and power and you have a high impact fantasy asset for the second half of the season. A .300 average with double-digit home runs and steals is very attainable for Senzel over 250 at-bats or so.
21.5 Brandon McCarthy (SP – ATL) (Pick 205)
No need to go much in depth here. I needed some depth and I got that with McCarthy. His upside isn’t very high but he’s a serviceable arm this late in the draft.
22.6 Stephen Vogt (C – MIL) (Pick 216)
This is my “Crap! I need a catcher” pick. There are not a lot of great catcher options in the National League, so don’t worry too much if you miss out on Buster Posey or Willson Contreras. There are plenty of serviceable catcher options to be had late in drafts.
23.5 Brandon Woodruff (SP – MIL) (Pick 225)
A lot of the pitchers this late in the draft are back-end rotation guys without much upside. So, why not grab a young hurler like Woodruff that at least has a chance of providing some decent value this season. The 25-year-old is Baseball America’s No. 61 prospect heading into the season and has a good chance to win a rotation spot with a strong showing in Spring Training.
24.6 Victor Robles (OF – WAS) (Pick 236)
Unless he rakes in Spring Training, it’s likely that Robles starts the season in Triple-A to get a little more seasoning. He’s not that far off from making an impact with the Nationals and should be an asset once he gets called back up. Michael Taylor can’t hold Robles off forever. The upside is worth it in round 24.
25.5 Chris Stratton (SP – SFG) (Pick 245)
26.6 A.J. Cole (SP – WAS) (Pick 256)
These last two picks were simple. It came down to who has a pulse and also a likely starting rotation spot in 2018. Ding ding ding. We have our winners.
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Call me biased, but this team could win the league if a few of the young guys produce to expectations. The draft simulator liked my final roster too, giving me a B for a grade and projecting me to finish 4th in this league. I wish I could’ve gotten a little better pitching depth, though, but still love the top of my rotation.
Overall, my biggest recommendations for NL-only drafts are grabbing a couple elite arms in the first five or six rounds, build good pitching depth in the middle rounds, and don’t be afraid to gamble on the plethora of high upside youngsters this season.
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Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @EricCross04.
