Catchers! Let’s revisit the 2017 season and look forward at how to value each catcher in 2018. As always I’ll take an analytical approach at understanding batted ball distributions and their impact on the floor and ceiling for each players.
This is an overview of the catcher position. You can quickly train your eye on the blue region to assess strikeout impact for each player, the red region for line drives (which drive BABIP and overall wOBA), the grey region which is where home runs begin and the black region where most home runs come from. The pink regions represent the lower wOBA outcomes. Some players with high exit velocity or favorable home parks may be able to homer out of the higher pink regions, while some speedy players may be better at turning the first two pink regions below the red into hits. In general, the bigger the red through black regions the more success a player is expected to have.
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The Top Tier Catchers: Sanchez and Posey
With apologies to Willson Contreras, these two players stand out head-and-shoulders above the rest of the catchers. Posey for his ability to hit for a high average, run OBPs in the .360 – .400 range and play enough between 1B and C to run up his counting stats over the course of 140+ games. Sanchez for his extremely powerful bat albeit it with considerably more swing and miss in his profile than Posey. Barring an unforeseen collapse in his ability to hit the ball hard (looking at you Jonathan Lucroy), Posey is a safe bet to go .300/.380/.460 and there should be a few more Runs and RBIs out there for him in San Francisco this season with the additions of McCutchen and Longoria.
Gary Sanchez ran a batting average near .300 in his rookie season over 53 games, however you should understand this was due to his outrageous 40% HR/FB ratio and not due to running a high LD% (16.4%) or a high BABIP (.317). Remember that LD% is variable over a single season and this creates variability in BABIP, AVG and the ball-in-play portion of OBP. Expect Sanchez to bat between .265 and .285 while producing an easy 30+ HRs. While he has only put ~35% of his balls in the air, his ability to hit those balls hard has lead to a HR/FB ratio that is among the league leaders. Because of his batted ball distribution be prepared for hot and cold streaks as the line drives fall or don’t fall and the fly balls turn into home runs or long outs.
The Next Best: Contreras, Castillo, Zunino, Perez, Gattis and Realmuto
Willson and Welington. It’s like a game of “where’s the L?” What’s interesting is the only thing really separating these two catchers, aside from the Ls, is playing time and age. When assessing them based on batted ball profile, exit velocity on home run launch angle fly balls and strikeouts we find them to be very similar players.
Castillo will be gaining a little bit from his home park switch from Camden Yards to … can we just call it New Comiskey Park? These two parks have very similar park factors with respect to home runs for right-handers who pull the ball to left field, but GRF actually plays better for well struck opposite field home run chances than Baltimore. Believe it or not, Castillo may be the better play if it weren’t for his age-related slow-down, one-year exit velocity drop on fly balls and playing time concerns. He hits more line drives and more fly balls than Contreras and doesn’t really strike out much more. Provided he catches at least 100 games expect 18-22 HRs from Castillo and a similar batting average to Contreras with a better floor due to his high LD%.
Contreras will rely heavily on his fly balls falling for home runs to generate a batting average over .265, and unless he raises his launch angle this year will likely max out around 20 HRs again. His batted ball mix is less than desirable for amassing large numbers of home runs or high AVG and OBPs.
Salvador Perez represents a slightly different flavor of the powerful bats in this tier. Perez is a great total base compiler due to his low walk rate, high number of games played and .180+ ISO the last couple of seasons. It’s true he’s seen his K% increase dramatically (14% to 20%) over the last three years, but the new balls have made up for it in home runs and doubles. While previously considered a safe option at catcher, his home park, the empty lineup around him, his advancing age and his low walk rates and increasing strikeout rates don’t bode well for the veteran backstop. His risk profile is high with little upside.
Zunino is more of the mold of Castillo and Contreras but with way more swing-and-miss in his game. He’ll strike out in a third of his at-bats but his 9% walk rate will keep his OBP from completely cratering on you. In back-to-back seasons Zunino ran BABIPs of .355 and .250. The 2016 season featured more “sky balls” that were hit above a 40-degree launch angle (easy outs) and far fewer line drives. In 2017 he hit far fewer of the less desirable fly balls and increased his LD% from 18% to 22%. In each of the two seasons, he carried an HR/FB ratio of ~23% thus I regard him as a safe bet for 25-30 HRs depending on how much contact he makes. If all the stars align he could put up a 30+ HR season, but I’d expect .240/.320/.490 with 22-27 HRs.
“Evan Gattis may be enjoying his last year with catcher eligibility” is a yearly fantasy conversation, but this year it may be true. Likely the primary DH for the Astros this season, Gattis’ health will once again control his fantasy impact at the catcher position in 2018. Gattis has one of the fly ball heaviest batted ball profiles among the catcher options, second only to teammate Brian McCann, which affords him many chances at home runs and total bases. He’s a 30+ homer threat with a likely triple-slash in the neighborhood of .240/.310/.500. The only question is how many games will he play as a 32-year-old DH?
Finally, there’s J.T. Realmuto who can best be described as “one of these things is not like the other.” While he does have pull-field power you should only expect 10-15 HRs. In reality, we both know that you’re selecting J.T. as your catcher because of the sneaky 10 swipes he’s going to chip in from your catcher slot. One thing to note on Realmuto is that since hitting .241 in his rookie season he’s been the best among catchers at hitting the ball back up the middle and to the opposite field, on the ground, with authority, which appears to be allowing him to sustain his higher batting average. A triple-slash line of .280/.330/.430 seems like a pretty safe floor for Realmuto though his counting numbers are sure to drop back to the 50 R and 50 RBI level with the lineup around him barring something amazing out of Prado, Castro and Bour or maybe Brinson this season.
My Pick To Click: Austin Barnes ft. Yasmani Grandal
If there is one catcher you want to own this season after the top options are off the board it’s Austin Barnes. The hype train is rolling full speed ahead on Barnes, but I’m not even sure he’s getting enough press. Why do we love him? He can hit the ball pretty damn hard to the pull side and to centerfield, giving him numerous ways to homer and pile up total bases, SLG and ISO. He hits a ton of line drives giving him a very safe floor for his batting average. And lastly, he’s got room to grow with the power stats if he can tap into teammate Justin Turner‘s advice and start ripping air balls a little more often. However, even if he doesn’t, he’s the better and stronger version of J.T. Realmuto with the ability to chip in 4-10 SBs, play second base to gobble up more at-bats and generally should out-play Yasmani Grandal without much effort at all. If Grandal wasn’t vulturing his at-bats in LA I’d have him in the top tier with Posey and Sanchez.
Since we’re here we better say some words about Grandal before moving into the old-man tier. Grandal also hits the ball really hard and even puts 40% of them in the air. The difference between his 2016 and 2017 seasons was a little HR/FB% luck in 2016 that regressed out of his system in 2017. He’s also a little bit heavy on the can-of-corn skyballs and his K% which really hamper his batting average and on-base percentage. If these two players weren’t on the same team they’d both likely have slightly more value than the current sum of their parts.
The Aging Veteran Options: Lucroy, Molina, McCann, and Ramos
Jonathan Lucroy saw his exit velocity on fly balls hit at home run launch angles fall from 95/93/87 mph to pull/center/opposite fields in 2015-2016 to 89/86/84 in 2017. Take your pick between a rebound in exit velocity and a return to relevance and the beginning of the end. Age says beginning of the end while injuries and track record lean rebound. If anyone says they can forecast him, just know they’re lying to you.
Yadier Molina never strikes out, but those 18 bombs he dropped last year are extremely suspect. He sold out for fly balls (37%) and pulling the ball (42%), both of which represent career highs. The only thing supporting his increased proliferation of long balls is the fact that he increased his exit velocity on fly balls to the pull side and to center field by over 2mph, while at the same time dramatically increasing the number of balls he hit at 97+ mph in the air. He’ll turn 36 this season and time isn’t on his side, but he may have taken the leap that his batted ball profile needed a change and worked harder at adding something extra to generate more swing power.
Brian McCann is the fly ball-i-est catching option out there and somehow is younger than Yadier Molina at the tender age of 34. He still rips the ball as hard as any of the other catchers to the pull side in the air and maintains a decent walk rate and strikeout rate. The only problem is that with all those fly balls he’s guaranteed to run an AVG below .245, an OBP below .330 and you never know if you’re going to walk into his crater season for exit velocity or contact rate. Truly the best part of McCann’s profile is that he puts so many balls in play and a majority of them are in the air and he still had the ability to homer quite frequently. Best of luck to you if you gamble on him this year!
Wilson Ramos has hit the ball on the ground in 54% of his balls in play over the course of his career. This is not a good thing for a 30-year-old catcher. On top of it, coming off injury last season we saw his exit velocity on the very few fly balls he did hit go from 98/95/94 to the pull/center/opposite field down to 90/95/92 in admittedly a small sample size last year. Much like Lucroy, was it the comeback from an injury or the beginning of the end?
The Young Ones To Watch: Jorge Alfaro, Francisco Mejia, Austin Hedges
Jorge Alfaro isn’t known for being an excellent defensive backstop, but his bat is known to house some pop. He got 100+ plate appearances late last year to show what he could do, which arguably wasn’t very much at all. Alfaro ran a 3% walk rate, nearly 30% strikeout rate, but did generate some power with his bat. This is exactly the profile that has followed him through the minor leagues. A best-case scenario for Alfaro is probably a Zunino-esque season, but he could just as easily end up back in Triple-A working on his ability to get on base and make contact, neither of which I hold out high hopes for. When he does hit the ball and hit it in the air, he has the ability to crush it at times which is what lead to the five HRs you saw late last year. I’d be hesitant to do a run-rate projection off this sample from Alfaro because he’s too inconsistent at making contact, and when he does there are still just as many easy ground balls as there are hard hit fliers.
Francisco Mejia is the golden child of the current crop of catching prospects. I’m sure you heard all about his 50-game hitting streak in the minors two years ago. It’s that bat-to-ball contact skill that has prospect aficionados high on King Mejia. While his future is likely bright, I’m cautiously optimistic that he’ll be enough of a fantasy contributor from the Indians crop of catchers. For whatever reason, they really like Yan Gomes calling games for the staff. So much, in fact, that they tried Mejia out at third base during the Arizona Fall League. That experiment was reported as a failure which leaves the Indians with some decisions around the potential future batting champion. Mejia will be known for a low strikeout rate (< 15%), an acceptable walk rate in the 5-8% range, and perhaps the ability to grow into a 20+ HR option – it just likely won’t be this season or at least a full season.
Lastly, we’ve got Austin Hedges to watch. Here’s why I’m excited, a swing-change article! Always have to be on the lookout for the new swing-change guys in Spring Training. Hedges hasn’t walked much in his young career and he’s hit a lot of fly balls. Unfortunately for him, those fly balls were mostly the bad kind. If he can bring the median launch angle down a little bit and square up more balls, it might allow his power to shine through more frequently and push him up over the 25-HR plateau while raising his AVG and OBP. Watch his stock and his batted ball profile.
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Jim Melichar is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jim, check out his archive and follow him @JimMelichar7.
