First base is often considered one of the premier power positions, and while that’s certainly still the case, the recent surge in homers the past couple years has made it easier to find long balls from just about any position. Even so, there’s no questioning that power runs deep at first base. This season’s group brings a particularly intriguing cross-section of superstars, young up-and-comers, grizzled veterans, bounce back candidates, and late bloomers.
What follows isn’t a set of tiers — that’s an article for another day — but a general overview of the position, with some of the guys to consider targeting at various points in your drafts. We won’t have time to touch on everyone, but here are some of the most compelling names entering 2018.
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The Elite: Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo
Paul Goldschmidt is the rare species of fantasy first basemen who contributes across all five roto categories, and he remains the gold standard of the position. However, in 2018, his view from above isn’t nearly as high as it used to be for one reason: Chase Field’s new humidor. No one knows exactly what effect this will have on hitters, but make no mistake, this is a big deal, and we could see home runs in Chase reduced anywhere from 25-50%. But don’t take my word for it — check out physicist Alan Nathan’s research.
Even if you don’t fully buy into this doomsday scenario, one has to acknowledge that this can only have an adverse effect on Goldschmidt’s production. A dip below 30 homers is entirely possible, if not likely, as we enter the humidor era, making his current number-three overall ADP way too steep.
Don’t misunderstand, his consistent track record speaks for itself, posting at least a .400 wOBA and 41% hard-hit rate in four of the past five seasons while continuing to be a strong bet for double-digit stolen bases. He’s still one of the best hitters in the business, but the uncertainty makes him more suitable as a late first-rounder.
Speaking of annual excellence, Joey Votto just keeps doing his thing year in and year out. Entering his age-34 campaign, Votto isn’t getting any younger, so chances are he won’t match last season’s 36 dingers, which tied a career-high.
But at a time when hitters sell out for power at the expense of strikeouts, Votto put forth a career-best 11.7% strikeout rate in 2017. And excluding an injury-plagued 2014, he’s hit over .300 in every other season since 2009. Even if one projects some decline, the floor doesn’t get much better.
A flukey wrist injury derailed what could have been a monstrous 2017 for Freddie Freeman, and yet he hit .307/.403/.586 with 28 home runs over 117 games anyway. Still just 28 years old, Freeman is firmly in his prime and is arguably the most likely candidate to dethrone Goldschmidt as the top dog at the position, posting a .404 wOBA and .272 ISO across the past two seasons.
It’s funny to think that Anthony Rizzo has already been around long enough to become a “boring” selection in fantasy. He won’t blow you away in any one category, but you can pretty much chalk him up at 30 long balls for a fifth straight season, and his ever-improving strikeout rate (13.0%) should keep the batting average stable.
Although he’s hardly a speed demon, he’s also chipped in double-digit stolen bases twice in the past three years. In all, you know exactly what you’re getting in Rizzo, and that’s not a bad thing.
Expensive Shiny New Toys: Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins
Cody Bellinger burst onto the scene last season with 39 home runs in just 132 games, so not surprisingly he’ll cost you a high draft pick to enlist his services, with many eager drafters even taking him before some of the established names above. Between his minor league track record, and a massive 47.1% fly-ball rate and 43.0% hard-hit rate, the power is genuine, but it’s tough to project a full repeat after just one season.
Be wary as well of the 26.6% strikeout rate, which could see his batting average drop to the .250 range. Still, at just 22 years old we’ve already witnessed Bellinger’s upside, and he has legitimate raw speed, so the potential for another double-digit dosage of stolen bases just adds another layer to the package.
Of course, if you want a real leap of faith, then look no further than Rhys Hoskins, who is going in the top-50 overall of early drafts after all of 212 Major League plate appearances. But when you mash 18 dingers in that span while maintaining a reasonable 21.7% strikeout rate and elite 17.5% walk rate, you’re going to catch everyone’s attention. Between his strong eye at the plate and an unlucky .241 BABIP, we could see an improvement in his .259 average too.
However, we’re filling in quite a few gaps when attempting to extrapolate off such a small sample size, and expecting a 31.6% HR/FB rate over a full season is a bridge too far. The price will be steep if you want to take the plunge, and the ADP will only rise if he rakes in Spring Training.
Old Reliables: Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer
Perhaps no first baseman is more underappreciated than Jose Abreu. No one ever seems excited to land Abreu, and yet he’s a career .301 hitter who has averaged 31 long balls across his four major league seasons.
Posting a career-best 40.5% hard-hit rate in 2017, there’s no reason not to expect more of the same in 2018. He may not have the enticing ceiling of some of his brethren, but he’s the definition of dependable.
While the likes of Bellinger and Hoskins are all the rage, Edwin Encarnacion is yesterday’s news despite showing few signs of slowing down. Of course, at age-35, you never know if and when those batting skills could fall off a cliff, but Encarnacion has put up similar numbers the last two seasons with identical marks in wOBA (.373) and hard-hit rate (37.6%). The batting average may continue to dip as the punchouts rise with age, but he sure looks capable of another run at 40 homers for a cheaper Draft Day price than the young guns.
Purely as a hitter, Wil Myers doesn’t quite hang with other top first basemen, posting just a .338 wOBA over the past two campaigns, but he makes up for it in a big way on the basepaths. Myers has collected 48 swiped bags since 2016 and recorded the fastest sprint speed among all first basemen last year (28.6 ft/sec). He strikes out too much to hit for average, but a rise in fly-ball rate (42.9%) and hard-hit (41.4%) suggests he can repeat those 30 home runs.
A move to Petco Park is hardly exciting for Eric Hosmer, and nor is his ground-ball rate, which sits at 53.4% for his career. Given that and last year’s lackluster 29.5% hard-hit rate, it’s probably best to not expect 25 homers for the third straight season.
The good news is he’s coming off a strong 15.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate in 2017, and typically posts an above-average BABIP, so the skills are there to maintain another solid batting average. Hosmer provides some value in safety, but it looks like he missed the memo on fly balls, so don’t expect any pleasant surprises either.
Bad Luck or Bad Back: Miguel Cabrera
On the one hand, there’s plenty of evidence that Miguel Cabrera was unlucky last season, putting up decidedly un-Cabrera-like numbers despite a 42.5% hard-hit rate and .374 xwOBA, suggesting he deserved better than his .313 wOBA. He also posted a .292 BABIP, which usually wouldn’t raise any eyebrows, except it fell well below his .344 career mark.
On the other hand, he will turn 35 in April, and last season’s back issues may not be going anywhere. It’s easy to forget that Cabrera was a borderline first-round pick in 2017, and depending on what you believe, he could be the ultimate bargain if he can regain some of his past glory. The quintessential boom-or-bust pick.
Affordable Shiny New Toy: Matt Olson
Hoskins may have hit 18 dingers in just 212 plate appearances last season, but Matt Olson wasn’t about to be outdone, launching 24 bombs of his own over 216 plate appearances. And yet, Olson is going about 90 picks later than Hoskins. I guess those Oakland Athletics don’t get much love?
The minor league pedigree backs up Olson’s influx of power, but last season’s 27.8% punchout rate doesn’t foretell great tales in batting average, and a bloated 41.4% HR/FB rate is completely unsustainable. That said, while Hoskins is the overall safer bet, you don’t have to invest nearly as much draft capital to speculate on Olson.
Don’t Forget About: Justin Smoak, Matt Carpenter, Jose Martinez, Yonder Alonso
It might seem silly to forget about a guy who hit 38 home runs last year, but early drafters sure don’t seem to be buying into Justin Smoak, with an ADP dipping around 150 in NFBC formats. And it’s hard to blame them considering the former top prospect’s breakout came out of nowhere in his age-30 season, obliterating his previous personal bests in just about every offensive category.
Yet, he’s consistently put up a hard-hit rate of 36% or better dating back to 2013, and his big 2017 didn’t come off lucky marks in either BABIP or HR/FB rate. A career .223 hitter entering last season, the most notable change was a dramatic drop in strikeout rate (20.1%), helping him to a respectable .270 mark. It’s natural to be skeptical of a full repeat, but if Smoak can keep the punchouts down, we could have a real late bloomer on our hands.
The recent fantasy numbers don’t necessarily jump off the page when it comes to Matt Carpenter, but the skills hold up, with Carpenter posting a .369 wOBA, .226 ISO, and 40.2% hard-hit rate over the last three years. His always stellar walk rate (17.5%) got him on base as usual last season, but selling out for fly balls (50.8% rate), and a nagging shoulder injury were likely culprits for a down year in batting average (.241).
If the fly ball heavy approach is here to stay, the batting average may not come all the way back to the .270 range, but it adds to Carpenter’s 2018 home run upside. The skills are still worth trusting in.
It came in just 307 plate appearances, but Jose Martinez sure looked the part of a strong hitter in 2017, putting together a .379 wOBA and 37.2% hard-hit rate, along with a solid 19.5% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. He’s already 29 years old, and it’s unclear how his playing time will shake out with Carpenter and friends, but that’s already baked into the low Draft Day price. The small sample size keeps expectations in check, but he could surprise if given the playing time.
Yonder Alonso was arguably the most shocking of the league-wide home run binge last season, hitting a career-high 28 bombs. His previous best? Nine.
The remarkable change was backed by a rise in both fly-ball rate (43.2%) and hard-hit rate (36.0%), but there’s apparently every reason to remain skeptical. Still, we’ve seen dramatic late-career turnarounds from guys like Justin Turner, so you never know if some of this newfound power sticks. With an ADP around 300, it won’t cost you much to find out.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
