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8 Players Going Too Early in Drafts (Fantasy Baseball)

8 Players Going Too Early in Drafts (Fantasy Baseball)

It’s such a fun time of year! Fantasy baseball drafts have started for some, keepers are being selected for others, and hitters are taking their pitchers deep in the early part of spring. Before you know it, you’ll be faced with a decision on who to take at a certain spot in your draft and that decision could be made easier based on what our featured experts have to say below.

As with every draft season, using Average Draft Position (ADP) as a tool to help prepare can give you a general idea of how the fantasy baseball community views different players. The difference between ADP and our expert consensus, though, is the amount of research put into ranking players. That can lead to a difference in valuation and below are hitters and pitchers the experts feel are being taken too high right now.

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Q1. What one hitter stands out as being drafted too early based on consensus ADP standings.

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – LAD)
Consensus ADP: Overall #25 | Hitter #20
“Bellinger’s ADP as the 20th hitter selected and the 25th player selected overall is too rich for my blood. The sophomore’s rookie season was phenomenal, but there are some cracks in the surface that should provide pause, namely his swing-and-miss issues. Overall, his 26.6% K% in 2017 was palatable and didn’t destroy his average (.267), but his 77.0% Z-Contact% was the third lowest among qualified hitters, per FanGraphs. Furthermore, he tallied a 28.3% K% from September 1 through the end of the regular season before punching out in an astounding 43.3% of his plate appearances in the postseason. I wouldn’t go crazy downgrading Bellinger, but he belongs on par with fellow sophomore Rhys Hoskins, who’s 30th in hitter ADP and 43rd in overall ADP.”
– Josh Shepardson (Fantasy Cruncher)

Domingo Santana (OF – MIL)
Consensus ADP: Overall #83 | Hitter #56
“Santana is being drafted a bit early right now, I’d say. I know he’s really talented and if he had a guarantee at a full-time gig, where he’s being drafted would be perfectly fine, but there’s just no guarantee of that right now. The Brewers aren’t going to bench Lorenzo Cain or Christian Yelich, which leaves Santana battling Ryan Braun for the last outfield spot, and I don’t know that Santana wins that battle. Now, I wouldn’t be shocked if they rotated Braun and Santana a bit, with Braun playing some first base and platooning some with Eric Thames, but playing time is far from a lock for Santana, and I just don’t like that level of risk at this point in the draft. If he gets traded or is guaranteed a steady starting gig, then I’m down for it.”
– Ben Palmer (Pitcher List)

Billy Hamilton (OF – CIN)
Consensus ADP: Overall #62 | Hitter #44
“I’m not chasing specialists in the early part of my draft. Looking at you, Billy Hamilton. I always feel you can find cheap speed the middle and late portions of any draft, and rabbits have a low barrier of entry during the year. Maybe you’ll wind up with a Mallex Smith, or a Cameron Maybin, or a Carlos Gomez, or some nondescript speedster who shows up midyear. Forget Hams.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)

Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF – PHI)
Consensus ADP: Overall #43 | Hitter #30
“I get the hype on Hoskins, he was truly unbelievable for weeks at a time and showed flashes of being the good version Travis Hafner. With that said, we have overreacted to small sample sizes before. All we’ve seen from Hoskins are 170 at-bats, which ended with pitchers having seemed to figure him out. While he may indeed be Travis Hafner this season, history tells us he is more likely to end up like Kyle Schwarber, Joc Pederson, Darin Ruf or any of the other countless examples of breakout power rookies who were eventually mediocre. Plus, there is the fact that you can get a better, but less hyped version of Hoskins in Matt Olson a full 90 picks later.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

2. What one pitcher stands out as being drafted too early based on consensus ADP standings.

Jake Arrieta (SP – FA)
Consensus ADP: Overall #20 | Pitcher #25
“Arrieta was arguably the best pitcher on the planet in 2015, but he’s currently a free agent and coming off of a season with a number of red flags. His 3.53 ERA bested his 4.16 FIP, 4.11 xFIP, and 4.15 SIERA as well as his 4.24 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus. The veteran righty’s SwStr% dipped to 8.7%, a mark that was below the league average of 10.4% as well as his 2016 mark of 10.5%, and hitters weren’t fishing out of the zone as often with just a 27.9% O-Swing% (29.9% league average in 2017 and 29.6% in 2016 for him). The lack of fooling hitters and avoiding bats accompanied a massive drop in velocity. Brooks Baseball credited him with an average fourseam fastball velo of 94.32 mph and average sinker velo of 94.44 mph in 2016, and those averages dropped to 92.67 mph and 92.48 mph, respectively, in 2017. Arrieta looks more like a fringe top-50 SP than his ADP as the 28th pitcher off the board on average.”
– Josh Shepardson (Fantasy Cruncher)

Carlos Carrasco (SP – CLE)
Consensus ADP: Overall #32 | Pitcher #8
“I don’t necessarily hate Carrasco where he’s being drafted, but he’s being taken over Luis Severino, Jacob DeGrom, and Zack Greinke, and I would take all three of those guys ahead of him. There’s no doubt that Carrasco has amazing breaking balls, and his slider and changeup are awesome. But he has a fastball that is total garbage, and he throws it more than any other pitch. Seriously, the pitch ended last year with a -11.7 pVAL and opposing hitters had a .429 wOBA and .286 ISO against it. He throws that pitch way too much for it to be as bad as it is, and that makes me nervous enough that I don’t want to draft him as a top-10 pitcher.”
– Ben Palmer (Pitcher List)

Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAA)
Consensus ADP: Overall #73 | Pitcher #24
“Ohtani is going to be a great pitcher someday, and maybe that day is Opening Day. But with the burden of hitting (and maybe even pinch-running), a culture change, a media blitz, and some ADP helium, I’ll sit this one out. I’m allergic to buzz. Fear of Missing Out is not a fantasy strategy.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)

Alex Wood (SP – LAD)
Consensus ADP: Overall #95 | Pitcher #35
“Wood was spectacular in the first half last season, going an absurd 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA, 1.74 BAA against and 10.9 K/9. Everyone expected some negative regression, but what happened in the second half ought to be more than concerning. He started getting crushed, giving up 7 times the HR rate, a BA against 90 points higher, and a K rate that was virtually cut in half. If that isn’t the biggest red flag you’ve ever seen for a pitcher then I’d love to hear of a better one. He has no business being selected in the top 100 this season.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)


Thank you to the experts for naming their overvalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for all the latest discussions this season.

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