On August 13th, 2017, Rafael Devers stepped into the batter’s box at Yankee Stadium with the Red Sox trailing 2-1 in the ninth. There was one out and the count was 1-2. This was only Devers’ 15th game in the big leagues, and he had the unpleasant task of facing Aroldis Chapman. The flame-throwing southpaw unleashed a 103 mph fastball to the lefty-hitting Devers, who sent the offering over the wall in left-center field for a game-tying homer.
Devers had some other “moments” in his first taste of the major leagues last season, including two home runs in an ALDS loss to the eventual champion Houston Astros. These moments are a great sign for his future. It shows he belongs in Boston and that he can hit good pitching.
That’s great, but how should we value Devers in fantasy? He’s definitely going to have a lot of buzz this spring, but is he worth paying up for?
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Devers played the 2017 season at just 20 years old. He wasn’t originally expected to make it to Boston, but top prospects get the call when they’re raking in the minors and the big league team has an opening. In 240 plate appearances with the Red Sox, Devers hit .284/.338/.482 to go along with 10 home runs, 30 RBI, and an .819 OPS. Devers’ 112 OPS+ means he was 12% better than league average during his time in Boston. His bat was a massive improvement over what the Red Sox previously had at the hot corner.
Devers passes the eye test too, demonstrating a plus hit tool and the ability to hit to all fields. It’s an advanced approach. The problem? Devers wasn’t as good once reaching the majors as he was in the minors. His K% rose from 17.2% in Double-A to 23.8% in MLB. His ISO (which measures the ability to hit for extra bases) fell from .275 to .198.
Two things to point out here. First, Devers was crushing Double-A pitching at such an absurd clip that even a drop in numbers at the big league level was a huge success for him. Second, it makes sense that better pitching was better able to handle the awkwardly shaped third baseman. He will be playing 2018 at the age of 21, however, so it’s likely there will continue to be growing pains.
Players like Devers are fun to own in fantasy. He plays for a big market team, he’s fun to watch, he’s young, and there’s theoretically limitless upside to what he can do this year. FantasyPros consensus rankings currently have him at 3B16, which is actually pretty reasonable. He’s ahead of Evan Longoria and Joey Gallo. He’s behind names such as Jake Lamb and Kyle Seager.
As I mentioned in my Rhys Hoskins write up, the danger in drafting buzz names like Devers is that fantasy players often reach for them earlier than they should. You should be looking to grab Devers where he is currently ranked. His upside makes him a great pick there. Just make sure not to reach.
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Brendan Tuma is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.
