FanDuel PGA Recommended Plays: WGC Mexico
After a tough week for most DFS players last week at the Honda, we head down South to Mexico City for the annual WGC Mexico Championship. It’s a unique event, as there is no cut and a smaller field of 70 or so players with most of the best in the world playing. It’s also an interesting environment, as due to Mexico City’s high elevation, the ball travels further and drivers are used quite rarely on this course. Thus, Stokes Gained Approach > Strokes Gained Off the Tee this week.
Because of the no-cut format, we definitely want to emphasize targeting birdie makers this week, as all golfers will get to play four rounds and the ones who make the most birdies will earn the most points. There is definitely less of an edge in these no-cut weeks, so don’t be afraid to slim down your bankroll a bit as it can be harder to separate yourself from the rest of the competition in your contests.
Strokes Gained Approach
Birdie or Better Percentage
Lock of the Week
Tommy Fleetwood ($11,300)
Fleetwood has emerged as one of golf’s elite players, as he almost won the Honda Classic last week in his debut behind a strong ball-striking exhibition. On top of this current form, he emerged last year at this very event, finishing second and putting really well on these tricky Poa Greens. I think Fleetwood is underpriced this week, as he’s priced in the upper-mid range players on FanDuel and should be higher around golf’s elite. I’ll be locking him into most of my lineups, as he’s Top 20 in SG APP in his two PGA Tour starts this year and can be easily counted on for a Top 10 finish this week.
Value Play of the Week
Patrick Cantlay ($10,000)
This is another example of a player who is not priced accurately. Cantlay has yet to miss a cut EVER since he came back on the Tour last year. 19/19. Even though this is a no-cut event, Cantlay has showcased the consistency, upside, and birdie making ability that we love in a cash game lineup. He flashed with a fourth-place finish at the Genesis Open his last time out – so he has strong current form – and is also 31st in BoB% and 29th in SG APP this year, strong statical measures for the week. He’s a great option this week for both cash and GPPs.
Momentum Play of the Week
Joost Luiten ($7,600)
Joost Luiten is a clear momentum play this week, as he won his last time out on the European Tour at the NBO Oman Open after an 11th place finish the week before. On top of this, he had a Top 25 finish at the event last year, so he’s no stranger to these tricky greens or the elevation changes golfers will face this week. He’s not flashy, but he’s an interesting and very cheap option that you can use this week to stack more golfers in at the top on a week where stars and scrubs is the way to go.
Contrarian Play of the Week
Charley Hoffman ($8,500)
Nobody is going to play CHoff this week, but I always like using him in events where you can score on Par 5s and where you need to make birdies. His 16th rank in BoB% last year shows this, as he’s always a guy you can count on to make birdies if he’s getting his four rounds in. It’s his debut here and his form is just OK, but Hoffman is a guy who should be less than 5% owned in GPPs and has clear upside with strong birdie making equity too.
Fade of the Week
Matt Kuchar ($10,500)
Kuchar is a great, reliable cut maker, but not a great birdie maker or scorer. In turn, on a week like this, he becomes immensely less valuable and his high price doesn’t reflect how he doesn’t fit the mold for WGCs. If this were a cut event, Kuchar would certainly be in play, but I’ll gladly take other golfers around him who make more birdies than reliable Kuch.
Don’t Forget About These Guys
Phil Mickelson ($11,000)
Jason Dufner ($10,000)
Thomas Pieters ($9,500)