Fantasy Baseball: Dynasty Trade Value Chart (Updated)

by Dan Harris | @danharris80 | Featured Writer
Feb 12, 2018

It’s been a couple of months since we last checked in on our dynasty trade value chart and there have been a ton of dramatic developments that have greatly altered the dynasty landscape . . .

Ok, that’s not true. Sure, Christian Yelich is now on the Brewers and Yu Darvish is now on the Cubs, but over the course of a career, those changes do not move the needle that much (yet) for dynasty purposes. Still, even without any baseball action, there’s been plenty of time to recalibrate our dynasty values. So, let’s take a gander at where things stand now as we approach Spring Training.

Just a reminder: The values below do not represent auction dollars or FAAB. They’re simply a way to evaluate potential trades in a vacuum.

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Player Current Value Previous Value +/-
Mike Trout 48 48
Bryce Harper 47 47
Carlos Correa 46 46
Nolan Arenado 45 45
Kris Bryant 45 45
Mookie Betts 45 45
Jose Altuve 45 45
Manny Machado 45 45
Paul Goldschmidt 44 44
Trea Turner 44 42 +2
Cody Bellinger 44 44
Chris Sale 41 41
Clayton Kershaw 41 41
Francisco Lindor 41 40 +1
Corey Seager 41 42 -1
Freddie Freeman 41 41
Andrew Benintendi 41 41
Giancarlo Stanton 41 39 +2
Aaron Judge 40 41 -1
Anthony Rizzo 39 38 +1
George Springer 39 39
Corey Kluber 35 35
Max Scherzer 35 35
Charlie Blackmon 34 34
Madison Bumgarner 32 32
Miguel Sano 32 32
Gary Sanchez 32 32
Noah Syndergaard 32 32
Shohei Ohtani 32 N/A +32
Jose Ramirez 31 26 +5
Joey Votto 31 31
Alex Bregman 31 31
Stephen Strasburg 31 29 +2
Jacob deGrom 29 29
Anthony Rendon 28 28
Christian Yelich 28 26 +2
Carlos Martinez 27 27
Chris Archer 26 25 +1
J.D. Martinez 25 24 +1
Marcell Ozuna 25 29 -4
Jose Abreu 24 24
Xander Bogaerts 24 25 -1
Wil Myers 24 27 -3
Daniel Murphy 23 23
Justin Upton 23 22 +1
Starling Marte 22 21 +1
Josh Donaldson 21 20 +1
Rafael Devers 21 17 +4
Luis Severino 21 24 -3
Carlos Carrasco 20 19 +1
Yu Darvish 20 19 +1
Brian Dozier 19 17 +2
Yoan Moncada 18 18
Rhys Hoskins 17 15 +2
Eric Hosmer 17 17
Dee Gordon 17 16 +1
Zack Greinke 17 19 -2
Lance McCullers 17 15 +2
Kenley Jansen 17 15 +2
Dallas Keuchel 17 16 +1
Khris Davis 17 14 +3
Jonathan Schoop 16 15 +1
Edwin Encarnacion 16 14 +2
Gerrit Cole 16 14 +2
Robbie Ray 16 15 +1
Buster Posey 16 14 +2
Willson Contreras 15 14 +1
Craig Kimbrel 15 14 +1
Robinson Cano 15 19 -4
Mike Moustakas 15 17 -2
Elvis Andrus 15 14 +1
Rougned Odor 15 17 -2
Ronald Acuna 15 12 +3
Yoenis Cespedes 14 17 -3
Michael Conforto 14 23 -9
A.J. Pollock 14 14
Andrew McCutchen 14 14
Nomar Mazara 14 17 -3
Jake Lamb 14 17 -3
Trevor Story 14 15 -1
Marcus Stroman 14 14
Josh Bell 14 16 -2
Ian Happ 14 16 -2
Gregory Polanco 14 13 +1
Aroldis Chapman 14 14
Billy Hamilton 14 14
Jean Segura 13 16 -3
Michael Fulmer 13 13
Justin Verlander 13 11 +2
Jake Arrieta 13 13
Jose Berrios 13 14 -1
Justin Turner 13 10 +3
Joey Gallo 13 13
Domingo Santana 13 12 +1
Jameson Taillon 12 14 -2
Manuel Margot 12 11 +1
James Paxton 12 13 -1
Matt Carpenter 12 13 -1
Addison Russell 12 12
Javier Baez 12 12
Byron Buxton 12 13 -1
Dylan Bundy 12 13 -1
Alexander Reyes 12 12
Miguel Cabrera 12 12
Lorenzo Cain 12 10 +2
Tommy Pham 11 7 +4
Evan Longoria 11 12 -1
Ryan Braun 11 12 -1
Masahiro Tanaka 11 10 +1
Jon Lester 11 12 -1
David Price 11 11
Jose Quintana 11 11
Jason Kipnis 11 11
Adam Jones 11 11
Nelson Cruz 11 9 +2
Ozzie Albies 10 10
Travis Shaw 10 11 -1
Orlando Arcia 10 11 -1
Aaron Nola 10 12 -2
Michael Kopech 10 12 -2
Wade Davis 10 10
Salvador Perez 10 10
Adam Duvall 10 10
Roberto Osuna 10 10
Kyle Seager 10 10
Clint Frazier 10 10
Edwin Diaz 10 10
Alex Wood 10 10
Eric Thames 10 10
Didi Gregorius 10 10
Walker Buehler 10 10
Kenneth Giles 10 10
Carlos Santana 10 10
Yasiel Puig 9 9
Greg Bird 9 10 -1
Jonathan Villar 8 11 -3
Avisail Garcia 8 11 -3
Starlin Castro 8 8
Julio Teheran 8 9 -1
Sean Manaea 8 9 -1
Kyle Schwarber 8 8
Jay Bruce 8 8
Aaron Sanchez 8 8
DJ LeMahieu 8 8
Victor Robles 8 8
Luke Weaver 8 8
Trevor Bauer 8 8
Ryon Healy 7 7
Hanley Ramirez 7 9 -2
Mark Trumbo 7 7
Corey Dickerson 7 7
Justin Smoak 7 7
Steven Souza 7 7
Dansby Swanson 7 7
Luis Castillo 7 4 +3
Danny Duffy 7 7
Ender Inciarte 7 7
Todd Frazier 6 6
Stephen Piscotty 6 6
Eduardo Rodriguez 6 6
Mike Zunino 6 6
Gleyber Torres 6 6
J.T. Realmuto 6 6
Zach Britton 6 4 +2
Lucas Giolito 6 6
Kyle Hendricks 6 6
Franklin Barreto 6 6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 6 N/A +6
Nick Castellanos 6 6
Kevin Gausman 6 7 -1
Corey Knebel 6 7 -1
Raisel Iglesias 6 5 +1
Chris Taylor 6 5 +1
Jacob Faria 6 6
Adam Eaton 6 4 +2
Sonny Gray 5 6 -1
Francisco Mejia 5 5
Eloy Jimenez 5 N/A +5
Nick Senzel 5 N/A +5
Dinelson Lamet 5 N/A +5
Chris Davis 4 6 -2
Alexander Colome 4 5 -1
Danny Salazar 4 5 -1
Jeurys Familia 4 4
Cole Hamels 4 5 -1
Yasmani Grandal 4 5 -1
Devon Travis 4 4
Ian Kinsler 4 4
Keon Broxton 4 4
Brandon Belt 4 4
Matt Chapman 4 4
Jose Peraza 4 4
Delino DeShields 4 4
Andrelton Simmons 4 4
Julio Urias 4 4
Kolten Wong 3 3
Kelvin Herrera 3 3
Archie Bradley 3 4 -1
Eduardo Nunez 3 4 -1
Eugenio Suarez 3 4 -1
Kevin Kiermaier 3 4 -1

As you can see there’s plenty of movement throughout the trade values, but the majority of it is simply a product of taking a closer look at the values and my dynasty rankings. Essentially, any movement of three spots or less should not be considered significant at this stage. For the most part, it’s simply a factor of updating a player’s projections for this coming season and a reassessment of his long-term value. There’s a lot of tweaking that goes on throughout the offseason, and dynasty trade values are no exception.

There are, however, some players who made major moves in the values, so let’s discuss the circumstances.

The Projection Movers

There are a handful of players who have gained or lost a significant amount in trade value simply because my projections for the upcoming season have changed, or because I’ve taken a closer look at their recent performance and determined that it appears to be more sustainable that I thought.

Jose Ramirez and Tommy Pham are two examples of players whose long-term value I’m more bullish on after taking a deep dive into their 2017 numbers. The 2017 version of Ramirez looked like largely the same as the 2016 version except for a massive jump in power (29 home runs and 56 doubles in 2017 versus 11 home runs and 46 doubles in 2017). And yes, the “juiced balls” undoubtedly made a difference, but a closer look at the numbers shows that Ramirez’s power gains were due largely to a change in approach. Ramirez upped his pull percentage to 46.3% (18th-best in the league), his hard-hit rate to 34%, and his fly-ball percentage to 39.7%. In other words, Ramirez made a conscious effort to pull the ball and hit the ball in the air more, which led to a .265 ISO, just below Paul Goldschmidt. That approach, as much as the likelihood that the balls were juiced, suggests that Ramirez’s long-term outlook may be more in line with his 2017 numbers than his previous performances.

As for Pham, his shocking 2017 numbers certainly came out of nowhere, but there’s a narrative that makes it seem plausible that his performance was for real. Pham complained of vision problems in previous seasons which apparently affected his depth perception, and his strikeout rate dropped from 38.8% in 2016 to 22.1% in 2017, a number that continued to decrease as the season went on. He also got consistent playing time for the first time in his career and is one of the more analytically-minded players in the entire game. He’s a bit older than we’d like from our dynasty-league stalwarts (he’s entering his age-30 season), but there’s certainly more there to support long-term success from Pham that I had originally suspected.

Other significant movers include Shohei Ohtani, who gains 32 points in trade value from our previous post, and Michael Conforto, who takes a rather large dive. Ohtani wasn’t in the player pool as of the last update, so he was not included on our dynasty trade value chart. Seriously. That’s the whole explanation. But long-term, he should be valued on par with Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner.

As for Conforto, rosier projections about his return from the torn posterious capsule in his left shoulder injury have abated, and he’s now looking at a best-case scenario of May 1st. Shoulder injuries, though they affect pitchers more often, are notoriously unpredictable and it’s fair to have question marks about how the injury will affect Conforto’s career. In the immediate future, however, when your best-case scenario is five months of the season, and you play for a Mets team for which best-case scenarios are never met, you’re going to take a downgrade in trade value.

The Prospect Movers

Almost all of the other significant movers are prospects. As we discussed in the first article discussing trade values, I believe the greatest amount of emphasis should be put on immediate impact (i.e., 2018) with future seasons taking a lesser, though still important, role. But there are enough prospects out there who either look ready to make an impact earlier than expected or appear to be entering into the can’t-miss category.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still a couple of seasons away from making an impact in the major leagues, but there’s little doubt that he will. He had a .450 OBP in High-A last year and has walked more than he has struck out in the minors. He should eventually develop into a monstrous power hitter, and there’s little doubt of an eventual significant fantasy impact. The fact he won’t see the majors for at least a year (and likely more) keeps his value in check, but it’s certainly going to rise further.

Eloy Jimenez got a cup of coffee in Double-A with the White Sox and was far from overmatched, slashing .353/.397/.559 over 18 games. Jimenez’s ability to make contact and his developing patience at the plate shows why he has been one of the top prospects in the game for at least the last year. With the possibility of a September callup and an almost guaranteed impact in 2019, Jimenez moves up.

Finally, Nick Senzel, who has been outstanding at every minor league level for the Reds, has the best chance of the above-mentioned prospects of making an impact in 2018. Senzel lacks the upside of Guerrero and Jimenez, but his overall line in the minors (.315/.393/.514) shows that he has the tools to be a strong everyday player. Currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base, the Reds will surely want to take a look at their third baseman of the future at some point soon, and he should see the majors this season and make an immediate impact.

Happy trading!

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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