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Notable Team Changes & Fantasy Impact (Fantasy Baseball)

Notable Team Changes & Fantasy Impact (Fantasy Baseball)

While it generally falls under the rubric of a “team sport,” baseball is an individual game at its core. It’s one batter facing one pitcher, with most of the other players on both rosters completely uninvolved in any given play.

So it stands to reason that team context has less of an impact on individual performance in baseball than it does in other sports — and that may well be true, particularly compared to football. But as it turns out, team context still matters quite a bit in baseball, as any experienced fantasy manager can tell you.

There are a few reasons why, and some of them have nothing to do with the abilities of a player’s teammates.

Unlike other sports, baseball does not have a standardized playing field. The shape of the ballpark is important, from the amount of foul territory to the distance and height of the outfield fence. Even the altitude and humidity of the stadium — and the way the wind blows through it — can significantly impact the amount of offensive production. Hence the creation of park factors as a tool to measure the offensive differences between ballparks.

Then there’s the difference between the American League and National League due to the designated hitter rule. Having to face a DH should take a toll on AL pitchers’ ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts, while harming the counting stats of NL hitters who bat before or after generally weak-hitting pitchers.

Finally, there are the factors that do have something to do with the quality of a player’s teammates — and coaches.

Unless you hit a home run, you cannot collect an RBI or a run scored without the help of a teammate getting on base or driving you in. If you’re a speedster, the number of stolen bases you attempt will be largely determined by how often your manager gives you the green light. On the pitching side of the equation, wins and saves are notoriously fickle and difficult to project, but even they are at least somewhat impacted by how much run support the team’s hitters provide and how well other members of the pitching staff can hold leads.

So yes, team context is important. And while the 2018 free agent market has been incredibly slow to develop — with key players like Jake Arrieta, Jonathan Lucroy, and Greg Holland still testing the market — we are now close enough to Opening Day that many (if not most) of the big names that will be switching teams have already done so.

So let’s take a look at some of the top players who have changed addresses this offseason — and how it affects their fantasy outlooks.

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J.D. Martinez (ARZ to BOS)
It took all offseason, but one of the biggest names in free agency has finally landed in Boston, and it’s not a bad thing for his fantasy value.

Comerica Park in Detroit has a reputation as a pitcher’s park, but it’s played like a haven for hitters over the last couple years. Even so, Martinez got a ballpark upgrade when he was dealt from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks midway through last season, and he certainly made the most of it, swatting 29 home runs in just 232 at-bats for Arizona. Fenway Park, while generally hitter-friendly, is not nearly as much so as pre-humidor Chase Field when it comes to the long ball. Still, there is reason to believe Martinez’s swing is tailor-made for launching home runs over the Green Monster.

In terms of lineup protection, Martinez will be going from one above average offense to another. Batting behind Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, and perhaps Xander Bogaerts, RBI opportunities should be plentiful.

It would be tough for Martinez to match last season’s 45 home runs no matter what team name was on his jersey, but he is going from one nice hitting environment to another.

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA to NYY)
Stanton is arguably the best pure power hitter in baseball, so he would be an attractive fantasy option on any team. But his move from the Marlins to Yankees can only help his fantasy value.

Yankee Stadium was just a middle-of-the-pack ballpark for offense in 2017, but it was still significantly more favorable than Marlins Park. More importantly, Yankee Stadium had the third-highest HR factor for right-handed batters, whereas Marlins Park was near the bottom. Stanton should also get a nice boost to his counting stats by joining a Yankees lineup that was second in runs scored in 2017 — particularly compared to the skeleton crew that is left in Miami after the Marlins’ offseason fire sale.

The stage is set for a monster fantasy season for Stanton…as long as he can stay healthy.

Christian Yelich (MIA to MIL)
Yelich should also benefit significantly from a move out of Miami, in this case to hitter-friendly Miller Park, a top-10 ballpark for offense in 2017. Miller Park had the highest HR factor in baseball in 2015, but it generally tends to be only slightly above average for power. So Yelich might get a more modest boost in home runs than in the other offensive categories. Yelich could benefit more in stolen bases, where Brewers manager Craig Counsell is among the managers that are most likely to give his baserunners the green light, according to a recent FanGraphs analysis.

The Brewers’ lineup isn’t necessarily better than the one Yelich hit in last season, but it is almost certain to be better than the one Miami will field this season. The Marlins actually outscored the Brewers in 2017, but that is highly unlikely to happen again after an offseason in which the Brewers added some big bats and the Marlins gutted their roster.

Bottom line, Yelich should benefit from the change in ballpark while his lineup should be at least on par with the one he hit in last year. Adjust his projections accordingly.

Dee Gordon (MIA to SEA)
Gordon is trading in one pitcher-friendly park for another, but he hits for virtually no power, so his fantasy value is less dependent on park factors than most players to begin with. He’ll also be hitting atop a Mariners lineup that should be roughly equivalent to the Marlins’ lineup last season. As such, he looks like a solid bet to again approach a .300 average and 90 or so runs scored (no, he probably won’t be scoring 114 runs again).

Gordon is a unique fantasy player, and ultimately, his value is largely about how many stolen bases he tallies. Based on the Fangraphs analysis of manager influence on stolen base attempts, Gordon should run early and often under Mariners manager Scott Servais. It’s hard to project him to improve upon his 60 stolen bases from last season, but there isn’t much reason to expect that number to drop (as projection systems are predicting) unless he misses time.

Marcell Ozuna (MIA to STL)
The fourth Marlin to escape Miami, Ozuna goes from one pitcher’s park to another in St. Louis. St. Louis slightly trailed the Marlins in runs scored last year, and Ozuna is the Cardinals’ only major offseason acquisition on offense, so his counting stats probably won’t get a huge boost from the switch in surrounding lineup. He will, however, be better off than he would have been staying in Miami without Stanton, Gordon, or Yelich.

Ozuna remains a highly-valuable fantasy asset, but he is a bit of a regression candidate and the switch in team context shouldn’t do a whole lot to offset that expected regression.

Lorenzo Cain (KC to MIL)
By moving from Kansas City to Milwaukee, Cain should benefit from both a ballpark and lineup upgrade. Last season, Kauffman Stadium was a bottom-10 park for offense, whereas Miller Park was top-10. Milwaukee’s lineup also outscored Kansas City, and that discrepancy should only increase in 2018 given each team’s offseason moves.

Additionally, while most projection systems expect Cain’s stolen base total to drop, it’s possible he could actually see a slight uptick in stolen base attempts in Milwaukee if Craig Counsell continues to have his players run aggressively. All in all, this move looks like a nice across-the-board boost to Cain’s fantasy value.

Yu Darvish (LAD to CHC)
Darvish got a nice fantasy boost last year when he moved from a hitter-friendly environment in Texas to the Dodgers, who offered good win potential and a pitcher-friendly ballpark, division, and league. He’ll still be pitching in the NL, and should now get even more run support with the potent Cubs lineup backing him. But he will now have to contend with a much more hitter-friendly home ballpark.

Pitching for the Dodgers is just about as good as it gets for a pitcher, so it’s hard to consider any move out of Los Angeles as an upgrade. That said, the Cubs are a pretty decent consolation prize for fantasy owners, and Darvish has the stuff to be an excellent fantasy option in Wrigley Field. This move isn’t a net-plus, but it isn’t much of a downgrade, either.

Eric Hosmer (KC to SD)
After patiently holding out for the best offer, Hosmer finally signed with the Padres last weekend. In so doing, he’ll be moving from a pitcher-friendly ballpark to an even more pitcher-friendly ballpark. However, Hosmer has already proven he can be an impact player in a tough environment, so the ballpark downgrade shouldn’t be overstated.

The Padres also sported the worst offense in baseball last season, but the Royals weren’t a lot better, so the lineup difference shouldn’t be huge once you consider Hosmer switching sides and the potential for some of San Diego’s young hitters to take a step forward.

Hosmer would have suddenly become a much more appealing fantasy target if he had gone to a hitter-friendly environment, but he has had plenty of fantasy value over the last three seasons and this move should do little to change that. He could be a bit of a draft-day bargain.

Andrew McCutchen (PIT to SF)
McCutchen’s situation is very similar to Hosmer’s. He is moving from a pitcher-friendly ballpark to an even more pitcher-friendly ballpark and going from one weak-hitting lineup to another weak-hitting lineup. Neither switch should affect his fantasy value too significantly.

McCutchen’s power has been remarkably consistent over the course of his career, while his stolen bases have steadily declined and his batting average has fluctuated. Perhaps he’ll run a little bit more under Bruce Bochy than he did under Clint Hurdle (at his age, maybe not), but regardless, he should be essentially the same player in San Francisco that he was in Pittsburgh.

Gerrit Cole (PIT to HOU)
Minute Maid Park used to have a reputation as a bandbox, but Houston’s home park has now been the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball for two straight seasons. Pittsburgh also has a generally pitcher-friendly park, but markedly less so. Moving from the NL to AL will be a challenge for Cole, but he should also see much more run support, and therefore, win potential.

Overall, this move should be a net upgrade to Cole’s fantasy value. But ultimately, Cole’s value is much more dependent on whether he can regain his past form than it is on a change in uniform.

Randal Grichuk (STL to TOR)
Moving from Busch Stadium to the Rogers Centre doesn’t project to make much of a difference for Grichuk based on ballpark factors (total offense or HRs). It’s also far from certain that Grichuk will benefit from a better lineup, considering the immense struggles of several Blue Jays veterans in 2017.

The selling point for Grichuk is a bit different. It’s the idea that sometimes a change of scenery can make all the difference, particularly when we’re talking about a power hitter going to a team that has notably developed sluggers like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and even Justin Smoak into legitimate 40-HR threats. That may not be a lot to go on, but it’s enough to make Grichuk an intriguing flier in fantasy drafts.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter

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