Prioritizing strikeouts is no longer a hidden fantasy strategy. Everyone wants pitchers with high K rates, so those guys will cost a premium on draft day.

Some drafters, however, can mistakenly expect too much stability from last year’s strikeout tallies. Along with changes in velocity and pitch usage, cluster luck can also lead to new data points. Addressing the final point, swinging-strike percentage (referenced as SwStr throughout the article) helps identify buying opportunities.

While some hurlers (and catchers) are better at painting the corners, whiffs are generally a strong precursor for strikeouts. Looking at last year’s leaderboard, several hurlers amassed fewer punchouts than peers who generated as many whiffs. The following players should produce more Ks if they sustain those swing-and-miss skills in 2018.

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Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)
It’s greedy to want more than a 9.79 K/9 from any starter outside the elite four. Then again, only Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer collected more missed swings than Masahiro Tanaka in 2017.

 
Every other qualified starter with a SwStr percentage of 13.0 or higher amassed a K percentage above 28.0. Tanaka, meanwhile, posted an identical tally to Justin Verlander, who submitted a 10.7 SwStr rate.

No qualified starter yielded a higher outside-swing percentage than Tanaka, who virtually abandoned his four-seam fastball in favor of splitters and sliders. Following a nightmarish start, the altered pitch usage produced a 10.73 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, and 3.03 SIERA after the All-Star break. He also allowed two combined runs over three postseason turns against Cleveland and Houston, 2017’s two-best offenses in terms of wOBA.

Most drafters will not receive a discount because of his 4.74 ERA, but his No. 99 NFBC ADP-behind Gerrit Cole, Alex Wood, and Jake Arrieta-still leaves room for profit potential if he can contain his home-run woes. He’s a strong candidate for 200 strikeouts, which could lead to a top-15 SP campaign if he eschews the blow-up outings that torpedoed his 2017 ERA. He’s not the only Yankees starter on this list.

Jordan Montgomery (NYY)
Tanaka’s teammate, Jordan Montgomery, still needs to make the rotation. Even if they don’t sign another starter before Opening Day, Chad Green is getting stretched out as a starter.

Take a chance on Montgomery if his early-draft cost tumbles. Completing the implausible task of going under the radar in pinstripes, the southpaw posted a 3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 144 strikeouts in 155.1 rookie innings. A short leash limited the newcomer to 5.4 innings per start, which saddled him with just nine wins. While the Yankees flaunt an elite bullpen, the 25-year-old could work deeper if given the opportunity. He actually allowed a lower opposing wOBA (.317) the third time through the order than the first (.331).

A limited prospect pedigree, unfavorable home park, and uncertain role have all mitigated his ADP to 245 in NFBC drafts, which place a premium on pitching. He has not separated himself from the middle-of-the-pack options, but a 12.2 SwStr percentage presents an easy road to top-50 status. That’s only two decimal points lower than Zack Greinke and one below Yu Darvish.

There’s plenty to like about his pitch arsenal, as his curveball, changeup, and slider each induced a whiff rate above 15.0 and a slugging percentage below .340. Let’s hope the Yankees let him roll as their over-qualified No. 5 starter.

Dylan Bundy (BAL)
Few players have climbed up my draft board more than Dylan Bundy this winter.

At first glance, his 4.24 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 8.06 K/9 depicts just another pitcher in a crowded sea of mediocrity. Although he exited May with a 2.89 ERA, a 6.15 K/9 demanded harsh regression. The baseball gods responded, as he coughed up a 6.99 ERA and 13 homers in June and July.

Buoyed by an elevated slider usage, the metrics supported his August domination. Along with a 2.00 ERA, he led all AL starters with a 2.32 FIP and 16.3 SwStr percentage that yielded 45 strikeouts over 36 frames. The stellar month vaulted his second-half whiff rate to 14.0, tying Luis Severino for seventh among starters with at least 50 innings pitched.

Did I mention this was his first full season in a big league rotation? Injuries delayed his highly touted arrival, but the 25-year-old still carries ace upside. While a 47.2 fly-ball rate will justifiably temper his price, the Baltimore righty should boost his strikeout total. A low-four ERA is no longer a mixed-league killer, especially if investors manage him properly. Take away two headache starts against Houston and Cleveland-this is typically a dangerous exercise, but a No. 4 or 5 fantasy option like Bundy should have been benched for those matchups-and he offered a reasonable 3.77 ERA over 160 frames.

Blake Snell (TB)
As a rookie in 2016, Blake Snell registered 98 strikeouts and a 10.9 SwStr percentage in 89 innings. Although his whiff rate microscopically decreased to 10.8, his K/9 drastically dipped from 9.91 to 8.28. Most of the damage came early, when he ended April with 18 strikeouts and walks apiece over 26.1 ugly frames.

The southpaw finally tapped into his immense upside after the All-Star break, posting a 3.49 ERA and 8.61 K/9 with a 12.4 SwStr rate. He bolstered his average velocity in September, culminating in a 13-strikeout, no-walk gem on the season’s final day. After generating a 26.4 percent whiff rate in August and September, Snell’s improved curveball induced 13 whiffs during his final start.

Steamer is projecting 164 strikeouts in 157 frames, so target Snell as a high-upside K contributor in the middle rounds. While walks remain a concern, he could blossom into a top-25 fantasy starter by sustaining last year’s late command gains.

Michael Fulmer (DET)
Out of 56 qualified starters, here are the six who netted a worse K/9 than Michael Fulmer‘s anemic 6.23: Jose Urena, Zach Davies, Martin Perez, Jeremy Hellickson, Andrew Cashner, and Ty Blach. Take away the age and accompanying hype, and gamers could have closely replicated the righty’s skills by plucking Mike Leake off the waiver wire.

When placed alongside those meddling names, Fulmer seems woefully overvalued as the consensus’s No. 44-ranked SP. This is not a call to place him higher, but rather to keep him in the top 50 despite troubling peripherals.

Investors expected plenty of strikeouts from a 6’3″, 210-pound hurler who throws in the mid-90s and sported an 8.70 K/9 in the minors. Rather than improving his rookie-year 7.47 K/9, he backpedaled despite gaining a tick on his fastball.

A 9.4 SwStr rate is hardly spectacular. Rick Porcello and Julio Teheran matched that mark in letdown campaigns, but they also tallied an 8.01 and 7.22 K/9, respectively. A healthy Fulmer-he had offseason surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his pitching elbow-should at least return to 2017 strikeout levels, which would get the job done if paired with ratios close to his career 3.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.