Super Bowl LII Prop Bets

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Feb 2, 2018

The Patriots have used White on the goal-line in the playoffs

Whether we are passionate Vikings fans who just had our hearts broken or zealous Patriot-haters, as sports fans, most of us can agree that the Super Bowl party is among the top days of the year. The food and company of course help with that, but the game and the games surrounding the games (Squares, Super Bowl Bingo, and primarily betting) are what really make the big day what it is. There are hundreds of props floating around about Super Bowl LII, so be sure to enjoy yourself, but as you do, remember that some are merely luck (the coin flip for example), and others, you can find a competitive advantage and hopefully make some money while having fun. Today, I’ll try to help you sort out a few that can lead to wise investments.

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Team to score first in the game

  • Philadelphia Eagles +115
  • New England Patriots -145

Belichick is known to defer the kickoff, but most importantly, the Patriots haven’t scored in the first quarter in any of Brady’s seven Super Bowl appearances. I expect the Pats to win this Super Bowl, but that history and Belichick’s tendencies tell us that the public will be fooled by this bet. We don’t have to be.

Player to score the first touchdown

Sure, the Patriots haven’t scored in the first quarter, but keep in mind though, that the Patriots only allowed one first quarter touchdown in that time and it was following great field possession after a fluke safety. The matter of the fact is that the Patriots have scored the first touchdown more often than not in those seven Super Bowls. They allow plenty of field goals, as they tend to possess a stiff red zone defense, but they are most likely to get in the end zone before the Eagles.

When they do, the Patriots have led the NFL in carries inside the 5 yard line (28 and 23 carries) in each of the past two seasons and carries inside the 1o yard line (58 and 60 carries) each year as well. To start this season, Mike Gillislee was getting all of that work, then it was Rex Burkhead before Dion Lewis took over after Burkhead’s injury. I say all of this to show why the stats do not tell the full story. Rather, what we need to know is who is getting those carries now. Since the playoffs started, James White has 5 of the 6 carries, and as a result, 3 touchdowns. So when you add together that the Pats are most likely to score the first touchdown, they run inside the 5 and 10 yard lines far more often than any other team, and that James White suddenly has the monopoly on those touches, it becomes clear that he is not only the best investment for his price, but he should be the favorite to get in the end zone first even before Rob Gronkowski.

Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?

Brady is the heavy favorite here for a reason. Nick Foles‘ line, however, is far too low considering how often a quarterback wins the award (8 of the past 11 years). Add in the fact that the Eagles’ Vegas implied odds of winning (36.4%) give Foles an estimated 26.5% chance, which is higher than the 23.5% chance this +325 line gives him. You aren’t often able to find those advantages versus Vegas. If that wasn’t enough, consider that 77% of professional bettors are taking the Eagles at +175, which means Foles’ chances are closer to 30% of winning MVP. If you are wanting to take more of a gamble, I’ll advise you to place a bet on Nelson Agholor, who has been Foles’ top target since the Wentz injury. The Patriots also struggle against RPOs and slot receivers which is an added bonus for Agholor this Sunday.

How many times will Donald Trump tweet on February 4th?

  • Over 5 -120
  • Under 5 +120

This has little to do with football, but the public sentiment makes this an easy win for bettors. Most people on both sides of the political aisle are under the impression that our President tweets non-stop every day. In order to win this bet with the over, Trump would need 6 tweets. He does not average 6 tweets per day or even close to in. In fact, he hasn’t reached that total once in the past week. Most importantly, his heaviest tweeting days come on Mondays followed by Fridays and Tuesdays. Sundays are his slowest twitter day. He tweets significantly more when he travels internationally and much less than normal when he is in Mar a Lago. Guess where he is flying this evening for the weekend…..Mar a Lago.

This seems like easy money. Now, I wouldn’t put the bet down quite yet. The FISA Memo was dumped into the news cycle Friday morning, which is quite odd, as you’d think he would have wanted it to get more attention. My guess, however, is that it was intentionally done just prior to the Super Bowl specifically because all of the conversations that will happen Sunday at parties. Because this may have been the goal, I would hold off on placing the bet until we see President Trump take to Twitter extensively about the memo. If it hasn’t happened by Saturday evening, avoid this prop, as you should expect him to draw attention to it Sunday afternoon before everyone across the country gets together. If he does discuss the findings on Twitter, go right ahead with the under 5 bet.

Will there be a flea flicker attempt?

  • Yes +140
  • No -180

We saw a remarkable three flea flickers two weekends ago. Belichick seems to have made a habit of running the play in AFC Championship games. We have seen a flea flicker in the Super Bowl before, but it is extremely rare. Much more rare, in fact, than the -180 line implies. When you consider that an NFL team almost never has run a flea flicker in back to back games, it makes this perhaps the easiest wager of the weekend.

What color will Bill Belichick’s shirt be at kickoff?

  • Blue -150
  • Grey +140
  • Red +900
  • White +900

Belichek has shown some distinct trends with his shirt color selection in the past. In his younger days, Bill was quite fond of the red. Now, he sticks almost exclusively to blue and grey, as indicated by the odds listed above. Virtually every time there is a cold outdoor game, he can be found in a thick grey sweatshirt. Any other time, you can expect to see him in blue. Seeing that the game will be played in a comfortable dome, you can safely bank on blue being the winner.

Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?

  • Teammates +200
  • God +300
  • City +750
  • Coach +750
  • Owner +1000
  • Family +1200
  • Does not mention any +225

When you go through the tape of past Super Bowl MVP speeches, it isn’t as though these men have planned scripts to recite. Rather, they are asked a series of questions about the game by a reporter. While Tom Brady is clearly a family man, and is always first to thank his family even before his teammates or Bill Belichick, his teammates will typically always be mentioned first because of the natural flow of conversation. Nick Foles, on the other hand, is as likely as anyone, be it Kevin Durant or Tim Tebow, to give thanks to God. Even still, he is mild mannered enough that even the emotion of winning the Super Bowl will almost certainly not lead him to speak off-script from the interview until the questions are complete. He loves his teammates too and has been clear to say several times that this is Carson Wentz‘ team and that his teammates enabled him to be in this moment. Bet on either quarterback mentioning his teammates first, be it on the way to a more passioned gratitude to family or God.

So there you have it, 7 seemingly random prop bets that I deem to be the best investments with your hard-earned money. If you have any other questions, especially pertaining to Super Bowl snacks, don’t hesitate to find me on twitter @BobbyFantasyPro. Thanks for reading.

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