Refusing to challenge rigid beliefs is a recipe for disaster. Seasoned fantasy baseball players often follow the same time-tested axioms.

For years, that has meant eschewing aces in the early rounds. Stud hitters are more reliable from a health and production standpoint, and sabermetric analysis helps unearth pitching bargains for patient drafters.

Before going forward, I should confess that I usually abide by this logic. While I have adapted my strategy in recognition of league trends and the average fantasy player having access to more information than ever, I still typically target my ace no earlier than the Round 3-5 range.

This year, however, I’m not ruling out splurging for a top ace. Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, or Corey Kluber will all cost at least a top-20 pick.

My initial instinct sends me fleeing from veteran hurlers – Sale is the only one younger than 30, and he turns 29 in March – with an expensive price tag. Then I started questioning my preconceived notions.

Are these four studs significantly riskier investments than the offensive studs? Is it truly easier to find pitcher value later? Nobody can get better by maintaining the status quo, so allow me to challenge my typical conventions and see if I can convince readers – and myself -to deviate from the hitter-first blueprint.

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A Clear Top Tier

The case is easier to make knowing the top four comprise an undisputed top tier. Feel free to tinker with the order, but whichever stud draws the No. 4 slot has a massive edge over No. 5.

They were the only four qualified starters to post a WHIP below 1.00 last season. They also topped the K-BB percentage and SIERA leaderboards to all finish as top-10 fantasy SPs for the second straight season. Here are how their numbers average out (rounding down counting stats to the lowest whole number) from 2015 to 2017:

Cautious drafters will shy away from Kershaw because of back issues. Even though the southpaw misses time, his work so far exceeds the norm that he placed No. 7 in ESPN’s 2017 player rater with 175 frames. If gamers prefer a sturdier ace, Scherzer, Sale, and Kluber have all registered 200 innings and 225 strikeouts in each of the last three seasons.

Pitchers can abruptly unravel, but these guys boast favorable health records when compared to Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton. They’re also far safer than Stephen Strasburg, Noah Syndergaard, and nearly all other hurlers.

Joey Votto still offers far less downside, but it’s not fair to discredit these aces just because they could fall apart one of these days. As those who drafted Miguel Cabrera in last year’s opening round know, hitters aren’t immune to Father Time either.

Assembling an Ace and a Strong Offensive Foundation

Before going further, there’s a huge caveat I must address. I’m not making the case to take Kershaw in the top five. This all hinges on grabbing an ace at market value around the 7-17 range.

I wouldn’t go higher than No. 10, maybe No. 9 if you’re afraid of the humidor hurting Paul Goldschmidt, so this entire thought exercise is contingent on drawing a late pick in a snake draft. Don’t get cute and overlook Jose Altuve to test a theory.

In a 12- or 15-team mixed league, the talent pool plays out perfectly to target an ace at the end of round one or beginning of round two. Not only is there a vast separation between the top four and everyone else, but there are also plenty of superstar sluggers to go around.

Even in a 15-team league, you can grab Sale at No. 14 knowing Votto, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, or Francisco Lindor will provide a sturdy offensive anchor. In a 12-team league, Bryant and Scherzer make a great combo near or at the turn.

If you take two hitters, you’ll either have to grab a second-tier ace – don’t count on Strasburg, Syndergaard, or Madison Bumgarner falling – to truly test faith with a fifth- or sixth-round anchor. Given the dearth of top arms, that might mean reaching for Aaron Nola or Jose Quintana.

As much as it hurts to pass on Votto and Correa, you can reasonably snag Jose Abreu or Corey Seager in the third round. I prefer a Scherzer/Seager pairing to Correa and deGrom, the ace I’m most likely to target in Round 3.

Missing out on elite power in the opening rounds is no longer a significant detriment. Like David Ortiz for the final few years of his career, Nelson Cruz offers second-round production at a fourth- or fifth-round cost because of his age and lack of position eligibility in some leagues. Ageism also tempers the price on Edwin Encarnacion, who has hit 119 home runs in the last three seasons.

The more I play the scenarios out, the more I like picking an elite arm to close the first or open the second. I’m also not convinced my offensive numbers will dearly pay for this sacrifice.

Plenty of Mid-Tier Offensive Value

Those who forgo the top-tier aces often cite their confidence in uncovering late-round and waiver-wire gems. That’s certainly a fair stance, especially for those who excel at evaluating pitchers, but where are the experts boasting about finding offensive sleepers?

The competition is now too informed to steal Luis Castillo or Luke Weaver at a discount. Besides, these fun breakout pitchers come with a low success rate.

While it’s easy to recall liking Nola and Robby Ray last spring, I also invested heavily in Lance McCullers, Kevin Gausman, Sean Manaea, and Michael Pineda. Playing it safe in the early rounds could lead to danger if you don’t strike big on cheaper arms.

An offensive surplus, meanwhile, might have turned mid-tier position players into the new market inefficiency. Jay Bruce, Matt Olson, Chris Taylor, Ozzie Albies, Evan Gattis, and Odubel Herrera are all ranked outside of Yahoo’s top 150. I’d also prefer Jean Segura, Rougned Odor, Justin Smoak, and Kyle Seager to Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, and Alex Wood in the 90-110 range.

I witnessed a lot of hitters fall when participating in a Pitcher List mock draft on Monday, Cabrera went in Round 12. Ryan Braun slid to Round 14.

I took Adam Jones and Trevor Story after the likes of Luiz Gohara, Lance Lynn, and Carlos Rodon in Rounds 17 and 18, respectively. In a smart room where everyone is chasing high-upside arms (and a Yahoo draft with three outfielders and no corner/middle-infield slots), there’s more offensive value waiting to slip through the seams.

Durable Innings are Tough to Find

In 2012, 32 pitchers logged at least 200 innings. Last year, 15 starters reached that plateau.

Like a bell-cow running back, the workhorse ace is an endangered species. If pitchers aren’t getting hurt, they’re getting used cautiously to avoid injuries. Besides, it often behooves managers to use a flame-throwing reliever rather than let a fatigued starter face the opponent’s stars for the third time.

Accumulating innings does not help if they’re bad innings. Four of those 200-inning hurlers (Chris Archer, Jeff Samardzija, Gerrit Cole, and Rick Porcello) also posted an ERA above 4.00. Expanded bullpen usage also makes wins scarcer and even less predictable from mid-level arms.

It shows in my home league’s 2017 standings. Last year, my 79 wins (in league with weekly lineup changes and eight pitching slots) netted me 2.5 points. I would have tied for second instead of second-to-last with 10 more triumphs.

The aces, meanwhile, all join Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke as six starters with at least 45 wins accrued over the past three years. The Big Four all work deep into games-each averaging 6.4 or more innings per start-for a reigning division champion.

Wins are highly volatile and should not be chased, but these are the only studs whom drafters can comfortably pencil in for 15 as a reasonably conservative projection. Getting 200-plus elite innings also gives drafters more flexibility to gamble on high-upside arms (McCullers, James Paxton, Rich Hill, Garrett Richards) who can excel in 130-160 frames.

Putting Into Practice

I tested this theoretical exercise by conducting a mock draft on FantasyPros’s Draft Wizard. I gave myself the 11th pick and, as planned, selected Scherzer in the opening round. Here’s what my starting lineup looks like:

OK, so I cheated a bit by drafting Cameron Maybin-whose rankings are not yet properly reflected by him signing and likely getting a starting gig with the Marlins-as a cheap steals source. The projections did not account for that trickery anyway. I received an 85 out of 100 grade with 37 and 43 estimated hitting and pitching points, respectively.

Not bad. I’m a bit dubious of these forecasts, as I’m given just 53 saves despite rostering at least two closers and a third if the Cardinals don’t add anyone else. While the algorithm spits out a 3.82 ERA, I expect bounce-backs in that department from  Samardzija and Masahiro Tanaka. In hindsight, perhaps I should have pulled the trigger on Castillo or Zack Godley instead of Smoak in Round 10.

For what it’s worth, Team 12 is projected to accrue 16 offensive points after taking Sale and Kluber at the turn. So yeah, don’t do that.

I passed on deGrom in the fourth and took Tanaka in the early seventh. After starting with an ace, it would take an incredible value to grab a second starter before Round 6.

My lineup has plenty of pop with no glaring weak spots. The results would look even better in terms of taking an ace in a standard Yahoo league with three outfielders and no corner/middle-infield slots. If the right scenario arises, I just may try this out in a real league.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.