During the winter doldrums, I am often reminded of a Rogers Hornsby quote:
“People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.”
For normal people, a lot of us fight through fantasy football playoffs and then start prepping for baseball season. Cheat sheets are created, opinions discussed, and friendships divided (i.e. Cubs’ fans debating Yu vs. Jake all winter long). During these heated debates, one player is often left out of the discussion, and not for good reason.
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Orioles center fielder Adam Jones has been a tremendously durable fantasy asset over the past seven years, yet he gets no love. While Jones is 33, he has played in at least 137 games since 2010 (including 151 as recently as 2016) and is showing no signs of fading.
Let’s take a look at his under-the-hood stats, courtesy of FanGraphs. Over the past eight years, his average walk rate is 4.2% and his average strikeout percentage is 18% (ranging from 17.1% to 19.7%). This plate discipline and above average ISO (.181 in 2017) has translated into slugging at least 25 homers since 2011, including 26 last year and 29 in 2016. While the balls may be juiced, being able to bank on these homers while also producing a consistent batting average floor (career .308 BABIP) is an overlooked asset to many. Unsurprisingly, Steamer projects Jones for 27 homers, 75 runs, and 84 RBI to go along with a .273 average, which aligns with his historical numbers. In case you forgot, he is surrounded by Manny Machado, breakout star Jonathan Schoop, underrated sophomore Trey Mancini, and boppers Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, both who had disappointing seasons in 2017 and are looking to rebound. If all of these players regress to their average numbers in 2018, Jones should see an uptick of runs scored, since he typically bats second or third in Buck Showalter’s lineup.
To demonstrate Jones’s consistency, consider the player rated two spots ahead of Jones in FantasyPros ECR rankings – Trevor Story. As Dan Harris noted in a FantasyPros podcast last week, Story’s ranking benefits from one incredible month in 2016. Last year, Jones hit two more homers, scored 14 more runs, and had a higher batting average by 50 points. Of course, Story does benefit from the objectively stronger Rockies’ lineup, his position of SS, and is eight years younger than Jones, but his .239 average is an eyesore. While that average should increase this year, he also struck out 34% of the time, which screams lack of plate discipline. If you have to pick between these two, the clear answer is the boring fantasy asset, Mr. Jones.
Adam Jones offers a floor of a top 100 player with top 85 upside. This is likely the last go-around for the tandem of Jones and Machado, but at least for 2018, do not sleep on the most bankable fantasy asset baseball has to offer.
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Carmen Maiorano is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
