When it comes to busts, the first important thing to remember is that it’s relative to where a player was drafted. Even though Anthony Rizzo finished with semi-respectable numbers in 2017, he was fully expected to be one of the safest picks in the first round last year. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, when looking at the top-ranked players, some simply carry more risk than others. The last thing you want in a fantasy season is to have those players perform like guys taken in the fourth or fifth rounds.

To help prevent you from running into this trap, we asked our featured experts below which big-name hitters and pitchers carry the largest bust potential. Check out their answers below.

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Q1. What starting pitcher ranked in the top 25 of the expert consensus has the biggest bust potential this season?

Justin Verlander (SP – HOU)
“Verlander is entering his age 35 season, and has now pitched in 2,500+ innings at the big league level. Very few pitchers are able to maintain the velocity and dominance a la Nolan Ryan, and while the Verlander comeback the last few years has been remarkable, I’d say he has the greatest bust potential given his age and the velocity he throws at.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)

“The tempting answer might be Robbie Ray because he is still HR-prone and needs to lower the walk rate, but that’s also the wrong answer. Justin Verlander was lights-out down the stretch in Houston, but he was simply pedestrian over the first 28 starts of the season in Detroit. He might have plenty of gas left in the tank even at 35, but he might not have the motivation now that he has a championship trophy on his resume. The AL West might prove much tougher over a full season, especially after an extended postseason run. Give me Darvish, Martinez, or even Ray a full round later.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

Noah Syndergaard (SP – NYM)
“They’re pitchers, so would it be a cop-out to say all of them? Noah Syndergaard could wrestle the NL Cy Young Award away from Max Scherzer by tossing 200 innings, but he has never eclipsed 183.2 in a single season. Despite logging just 30.2 frames in 2017, there’s no discount on Thor because of his league-winning upside. There’s something to be said for taking the most-skilled hurler since they all come with added health concerns, but it’s dangerous to project any more than 180 innings from Syndergaard. That might be enough to cement him as a top-10 option, which is why the industry is essentially giving him a mulligan. Just remember how drafting him this early panned out last season.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)

Carlos Martinez (SP – STL)
“The name who stands out to me is Carlos Martinez. This actually has little do do with his ERA jumping 60 points last year, and everything to do with the quiet legal battle he is in. A man claims that Car-Mart, Oscar Taveras and a group of friends jumped him outside of a bar a few years ago, breaking his back. Whether or not this is true, the emotional stress of dealing with a substantial lawsuit would take its toll on almost any human’s performance at work.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Chris Archer (SP – TB)
“Archer’s stuff is nasty, but he’s essentially a two-pitch pitcher. He’s got an awesome fastball and an awesome slider, but unless he adds a good third pitch, I worry he could get lit up in the ERA department like he has in the past.”
– Ben Palmer (Pitcher List)

Clayton Kershaw (SP – LAD)
“It’s easy for me to say Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton or David Price because of some of their recent injury history, but I’ll take it one step further and ‘pick’ on the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers’ ace is coming off a season where he had his lowest ground ball rate since 2013, highest fly ball rate and ERA since 2012, and the 23 home runs allowed were by far the most he’s ever given up in a season. Now, home runs were up across the board last year, and we are nitpicking because Kershaw’s numbers were still fantastic, but it makes you wonder if the two lengthy DL stints over the past two seasons due to lower back injuries has affected him. Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball, but his price tag hasn’t come down to reflect the risk, making him a first-round pass for me.”
– Chris Meaney (FNTSY Sports Network)

Q2. What hitter ranked in the top 30 of the expert consensus has the biggest bust potential this season?

Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
“Drafting Aaron Judge would scare me to death which explains why I have exactly zero shares of him thus far. Sure, he could hit 60 homers, but based on what we saw in the second-half and into the playoffs last year, he seems just as likely and perhaps more likely to put together a season like we just saw from Joey Gallo. Plus, there is the shoulder scare which could resurface at any point. Judge offers plenty of upside, but not enough safety to captivate me anywhere close to his ADP.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

“I believe in a lot of what Aaron Judge did last year, the power is obviously legit, but that batting average scares me. Given that he strikes out over 30% of the time and had a .357 BABIP last year, I could definitely see his average regressing significantly, which will really hurt his value.”
– Ben Palmer (Pitcher List)

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF – LAD)
“I’m guessing Aaron Judge is a popular answer to this question, but 2017’s other Rookie of the Year also has considerable downside at a lofty cost. Because of Cody Bellinger’s massive power profile, drafters may be overlooking a 69.2 contact percentage that could cause prolonged slumps and a mediocre batting average. Playoff sample sizes are small, but 26 strikeouts in 63 plate appearances presents a warning flag for what could happen if pitchers adjust to the newcomer in 2018. I’m not avoiding Bellinger altogether, but he carries a far lower floor than Anthony Rizzo or Jose Abreu.”
– Andrew Gould (Bleacher Report)

Mookie Betts (OF – BOS)
“Betts has the biggest bust potential coming off a 2017 season where he hit just .264, including under .260 against right-handed pitching. He had issues with both sliders and changeups in 2017 and if that continues into 2018, I don’t expect to see him in the top 10 once again.”
– KJ (Fantasy Team Advice)

J.D. Martinez (OF – BOS)
“Martinez is a player whose talent can’t be disputed, but might be hard-pressed to repeat his career year. He moves to a stacked Boston lineup, but Fenway’s Green Monster contributed to a HR Factor that was 21st for RHB, as opposed to his two favorable home parks of Chase Field (4th) and Comerica (6th) last season. Martinez’s ADP will surely benefit from recency bias, but a second-round ADP is overly optimistic.”
– Pierre Camus (RotoBaller)

Dee Gordon (2B – SEA)
“Stolen bases are certainly at a premium, but as totals decline, so does the threshold to compete in that category. Dee Gordon may very well lead the league in stolen bases yet again this season, but it’s not a good enough reason to draft him as a top 30 hitter. Gordon’s a two to three category guy that will provide nothing from the home run or RBI department, and if you’re playing in OBP leagues, forget about it. Whit Merrifield, Tommy Pham, Brett Gardner and Cameron Maybin are just a few guys who finished with high stolen base totals last season, and none were even considered on draft day. Certain players will pop up throughout the season, steals can be found in the later rounds, and passing on Gordon doesn’t mean you won’t be able to compete in that category. I’d much rather have the likes of Brian Dozier or Alex Bregman, or waiting it out at the position for someone like Ian Kinsler.”
– Chris Meaney (FNTSY Sports Network)

Thank you to the experts for naming their players with the highest bust potential. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and listen/subscribe to our podcast below for all the latest discussions this season including more sleepers with Eno Sarris!

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