The action was fast and furious the moment “legal tampering” was allowed and despite its silliness, we’ve been gifted constant enjoyment of what we call NFL Free Agency. The biggest news came, though, once free agency officially kicked off when teams and players were allowed to go ahead and make moves publicly. Despite all the fun, as fantasy players, there’s just one thing to care about. How have the moves impacted the upcoming fantasy season?

There’s no doubt guys like Jerick McKinnon saw his value increase as he went from a timeshare to a likely lead-back role. To get some concrete opinions, though, we reached out to a few of the most trusted experts in the industry and asked them two simple questions. Who saw their fantasy value increase and decrease the most these past few days? Get their answers below.

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Q1. What player has seen his fantasy value increase the most as a result of free agency?

Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF) | Trey Burton (TE – CHI)
“I’ll give you two names: Jerick McKinnon and Trey Burton. As Kyle Shanahan’s hand-picked running back, McKinnon will get every chance to succeed as the 49ers primary runner. This signing is in the same vein as Michael Turner (to the Falcons), LaMont Jordan (to the Raiders), Chester Taylor (to the Vikings), or Darren Sproles (to the Saints) — quality backups who finally got their chance in a big role with a new team. McKinnon suddenly looks like a low-end RB1, especially in PPR formats. As for Burton, he’s similar in that he’s being promoted from quality backup to a starting role in Chicago, and I love that he’ll be playing for Matt Nagy, who helped to coach Travis Kelce in Kansas City. A top 10 season is well within reach.”
– John Paulsen (4for4.com)

“Everyone wants to be the running back in a Kyle Shanahan offense. The lucky ball carrier this season will be Jerick McKinnon, who signed a four-year, $30-million deal anointing him the 49ers’ new lead rusher. McKinnon was a top-10 fantasy back in both standard and PPR formats after Dalvin Cook was lost to a season-ending injury in Week 4. More importantly, the 5-9, 205-pound McKinnon proved he could carry a significant workload, averaging 15.5 touches per game during that stretch. McKinnon will be a high-end RB2 heading into 2018.”
– Justin Boone (theScore)

“Jerick McKinnon has gone from a backup or a handcuff to a potential top 12 RB. It might be a little early to know exactly what McKinnon’s workload will be with the 49ers, but if you look at the money they gave him it’s a safe bet that he will be the predominate runner. Last season Carlos Hyde caught 59 balls in this Kyle Shanahan system, something that isn’t his strength. McKinnon is a great pass catcher however and should thrive as a hand-picked Shanahan running back.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)

“While it’s tempting to say Allen Robinson (signed with Chicago), that’s not the case, as he saw 150-plus targets in back-to-back seasons with the Jaguars and it’s hard to top that volume. Instead, it’s Jerick McKinnon, who signed a lucrative 4-year, $30 million deal with the 49ers. You don’t make McKinnon the third-highest paid running back if you don’t plan to use him extensively. In the six starts with Jimmy Garoppolo last year, the 49ers running backs averaged over 25 carries per game, compared to just 20 carries per game with Brian Hoyer/C.J. Beathard. The game-script should look great, and even if it doesn’t, they’ve said they’ll move him all over the field and feature him in the passing game. He’s going to get 15-plus touches per game in a Kyle Shanahan-led offense. Yes, please.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Mitchell Trubisky (QB – CHI)
“I expect the majority to say Jerick McKinnon, and while I can see him being the 49ers version of Tevin Coleman, my biggest winner is Mitchell Trubisky. I wrote an article in January listing several reasons why Trubisky could be the next breakout QB, similar to Jared Goff this past season. Adding Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton gives Trubisky a great collection of receiving talent to go with a terrific backfield duo. Now, we don’t need Cameron Meredith to return or Kevin White to ever do anything, but if they do, that’s just bonus at this point. Trubisky saw the biggest jump due to his supporting cast becoming exponentially better.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

Allen Robinson (WR – CHI)
“Allen Robinson may not been as dynamic in the future as we saw before his ACL injury, but he is certainly in a better situation to succeed. As odd as it may seem, he would have had more competition in Jacksonville for targets from Marqise Lee, Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook than the wasteland that was the Bears’ receiver core. Robinson would be the #1 wide receiver in most places, but in Chicago, he may get an extra 15 to 20 targets which will go a long way over the course of a season.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Q2. What player has seen his fantasy value decrease the most as a result of free agency?

Carlos Hyde (RB – CLE)
“Hyde had a great opportunity to find a new, better team this offseason than his San Francisco 49ers. Unfortunately, he didn’t take it. He signed with a new, much worse team in the Browns. Duke Johnson will ensure that the 59 receptions Hyde had the year before will disappear. The Browns franchise will ensure that his touchdown opportunities stay low. Plus, there is still the unthinkable situation where the Browns select Saquon Barkley and completely kill Hyde’s opportunity. Overall, Hyde went from being an RB1 last year to filling Isaiah Crowell’s shoes (RB30 last season) on a franchise that will probably let people down. Again.”
– Jason Moore (The Fantasy Footballers)

Jordy Nelson (WR – FA): Close to signing with Raiders
“At this point, Nelson’s fantasy value depends heavily on his mind meld with Aaron Rodgers, so even if he goes to Oakland, his stock is going to take a hit. I also think Carlos Hyde’s value is severely diminished in a likely timeshare with Duke Johnson after serving as the 49ers’ bell cow back last season.”
– John Paulsen (4for4.com)

Duke Johnson (RB – CLE)
“Johnson’s fantasy value was attacked on every front over the last week. First, the Browns traded for Jarvis Landry, who will soak up the slot targets that helped increase Johnson’s production last season. Then, Cleveland inked Carlos Hyde to a three-year, $15-million contract, securing Johnson’s role as a receiving back. There’s also a chance the Browns draft a rusher, with Saquon Barkley’s name still being linked to one of their two first-round picks. Johnson will have PPR value, but his fantasy ceiling has been dramatically capped with the Browns’ recent moves.”
– Justin Boone (theScore)

Jarvis Landry (WR – CLE)
“The player who saw his fantasy value take a significant hit during free agency has to be Jarvis Landry. With the Browns, Landry isn’t going to sniff the 140-plus target average that he was getting with the Dolphins. The signing of Tyrod Taylor and Carlos Hyde indicates they’ll be run-heavy, as Taylor has yet to throw the ball more than 437 times in a season. We can expect a bump, but expecting more than 500 attempts is dangerous. Landry will now have to compete with Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, David Njoku, Duke Johnson, and Hyde for targets. He’s more of a low-end WR3 in fantasy and one who doesn’t present much upside.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
“Derrick Henry hype go boom! Henry was immediately overrated with the departure of DeMarco Murray, as the Titans were going to add a complement and Henry having limits of his own. Well, the Titans added a piece that can threaten Henry for the lead work. Don’t get me wrong; I believe Henry is still the lead and will see the majority of goal line work. However, Dion Lewis proved that he’s an all-around threat and talented enough to be a lead option if ever needed. Henry went from perceived (albeit mistakenly so) RB1 to mid-RB2 with the Lewis signing.”
– Jake Ciely (RotoExperts)

Dion Lewis (RB – TEN)
“Prior to free agency, there was plenty of excitement about Dion Lewis, but I expect that to die down now that he signed with the Titans. It isn’t even so much that Derrick Henry’s presence will hold him back, although that is also true. Rather, it mostly comes down to the fact that the Patriots are the team best suited to utilize a player like Lewis in the passing game, plus they provided more goal-line opportunities than any team in the NFL each of the past two years. Tennessee won’t come close to being able to offer that, especially with Henry in the mix.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

Thank you to the experts for sharing their thoughts on free agency. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and for more great advice, subscribe to our podcast below.

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