There’s no use mincing words — closers are the most infuriating players to draft in fantasy baseball. Even amongst the best at the position, closers are never as safe as they seem.
Remember just last year when we thought Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon, and Seung Hwan Oh were all “safe?” How did that work out?
On the flip side, even when we think we know who the weak links are and cleverly project some cheap closers-in-waiting, that too can be a fool’s errand. In 2017, we told ourselves Fernando Rodney was undoubtedly a ticking time bomb.
Instead, he went out and saved 39 games, good for fourth in the league. Well, okay then.
With all of this in mind, let’s take a stroll through this year’s minefield of relief pitching options. What follows isn’t a set of tiers – that’s an article for another day – but a general overview of the position, with some of the guys to consider targeting at various points in your drafts. We won’t have time to touch on everyone, but here are the most compelling names entering 2018.
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Is it Worth Paying Up?
In terms of ADP, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel lead the way as top-50 picks. But the question you have to ask yourself is whether they’re worth the price of admission.
Among the names you might see at this stage in the draft include guys like Jacob deGrom, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Rhys Hoskins, Yu Darvish, and Christian Yelich. You may not like every one of those players at that price point, but that’s an awful lot of upside to pass up.
But if you want to be able to sleep at night, no one represents stability and consistency at the position like Jansen. Across the past three seasons, he’s averaged a 1.81 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 41.3% strikeout rate, and 3.7% walk rate. Those are absurd numbers, and there’s little reason to think anything will change entering his age-30 season. While your humble author is still hesitant to take him at his current ADP (38), if he drops in a closer-averse draft, you might be hard-pressed to pass him up.
On the other hand, Kimbrel feels a little more shaky, despite coming off an outstanding 2017 campaign in which he posted a ridiculous 49.6% strikeout rate, besting even Jansen. But his 5.5% walk rate was well below his career mark (9.5%), something that has given him issues in years past.
In 2016, he had a 13.6% walk rate, contributing to a career-worst 3.40 ERA. That may seem like nitpicking, after all, he still saved 31 games, but as a total value that’s not getting much bang for your buck if that’s the version you get in 2018. Be wary of paying the premium cost.
Now, if you invested in Kimbrel going into last season, you likely got yourself a pretty good deal coming off a down season. Who fits that mold this year?
Going back to some of 2017’s disappointments, Aroldis Chapman comes at a slight discount after a roller coaster season. Like Kimbrel’s 2016, even in an underwhelming campaign, Chapman managed a solid 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with a 32.9% strikeout rate and 22 saves. He still throws 100 mph, and the lengthy track record speaks for itself. After all, he was a consensus top-two closer entering last year. Despite the drop in price, an ADP around 63 is still a bit high, but there could be a buying opportunity here if your league-mates are scared off by last year’s performance.
“Don’t Pay For Saves”
We all know the old Matthew Berry motto, and it still holds up in 2018. We noted the carnage of last year’s so-called safe bets at the outset, which is why it’s a viable strategy to wait on closers as long as you can. With that in mind, who are the best values in the mid-to-late rounds?
Among the group of closers going in the top 130 picks, Brad Hand sticks out as a potential discount at his 119 ADP. Hand had a sparkling 2.16 ERA and 0.93 WHIP last season, and his 27.0% K-BB rate rivaled that of Corey Knebel (27.8%) and Roberto Osuna (29.7%). Knebel and Osuna are going within the top 82 picks of your average draft. Even with some regression off a career-best season, Hand looks like an affordable way to secure a highly-skilled closer.
Further down we hit a sweet spot around pick 160, where we see guys like Brandon Morrow, Mark Melancon, and Jeurys Familia going. Morrow has a lengthy injury history, but put up excellent numbers in 2017, and is locked in as the Chicago Cubs closer. Meanwhile, Melancon and Familia are coming off lost, injured-marred seasons, but were considered top-of-the-line closers before that. Even considering the added risks, there’s some nice potential upside here.
Coming in at nearly pick 200, Blake Treinen will likely be one of the last secure closers you can grab before you start getting into some unsavory situations (I’m looking at you, Fernando Rodney). Treinen’s stats don’t jump out at you, but he does hold an elite 61.4% ground-ball rate. Perhaps just as importantly, the Oakland job is his.
All joking aside, as much as it might pain you, Rodney does shake out as a potential target as well. Maybe this is finally the year it all comes crashing down, but he’s defied us before. There’s a very good chance he’s that guy that sits near the top of the draft list that no one wants to touch for several rounds. Hey, somebody has to do it.
Two teams that have yet to announce their closers are the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Angels. Luke Gregerson was expected to be the favorite for the Cardinals, but an oblique injury has sidelined him for much of the spring, leaving the door open for Dominic Leone. For the Angels, Blake Parker was supposed to be the guy, but talk of Cam Bedrosian has emerged as a possible leader in the clubhouse. They’re fluid situations, but speculating on one or two of these fellas could pay off in the long run.
Greg Holland still lacks a home, so he’s another prime candidate to plummet in your draft. Don’t be afraid to pick him up when the pickings get slim. Holland saved 41 games in 2017, and even though he was far from perfect, there are plenty of teams who could use his services.
Lastly, don’t forget about Brad Ziegler. You don’t believe in him, I don’t believe in him, and who knows, maybe not even the Miami Marlins genuinely believe in him. But even if all he does is give you half a season of saves, that’s hardly a bad result from a guy going outside the top 300.
On the flip side, you can also opt for either Kyle Barraclough or Drew Steckenrider if you just want to bet on Ziegler faltering. No one said bargain shopping had to be glamorous.
Middle Relievers Galore
If there’s any good news in the relief pitching genre, it’s that middle relievers are becoming more valuable than ever. With the 200-inning starting pitcher going the way of the dodo bird, guys like Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Chris Devenski are becoming more and more valuable fantasy assets despite limited innings and save opportunities. Rather than roster a mediocre starter who will kill your ERA and WHIP, you can grab these guys for a ratio boost and still get 100 strikeouts. Betances is coming off a rough 2017, but he’s still worth buying in case he can clean up the walks and regain his old form.
In the non-closer division, you can also add Chad Green, David Robertson, and Josh Hader to the list of elite arms to fill out your pitching corps. Yusmeiro Petit deserves consideration in deep leagues as well.
2018 Outfield Primer
2018 Third Base Primer
2018 Shortstop Primer
2018 Second Base Primer
2018 First Base Primer
2018 Catcher Primer
2018 Starting Pitcher Primer
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
