The pitching landscape has changed dramatically over the past couple years, and as teams rely more on their bullpens, yanking starters after just five or six innings is beginning to be the norm. As a result, the 200-inning starting pitcher is slowly becoming a dying breed. In 2015, there were 28 pitchers who hit the 200-innings mark. That dropped to just 15 in 2016 and stayed again at 15 last year. Add in the new 10-day disabled list, and it’s easier than ever for teams to skip starters for minor ailments.
Therefore, constructing a fantasy pitching staff is trickier than ever. What follows isn’t a set of tiers – that’s an article for another day – but a general overview of the position, with some of the guys to consider targeting at various points in your drafts. We won’t have time to touch on everyone, but here are some of the most compelling names entering 2018.
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The Big Four
You already know who we’re talking about. The “Big Four” of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Corey Kluber are the consensus top four starters entering the season, and the only question is how you order them. In the past, Kershaw was the unquestioned top dog on an island of his own, but persistent back issues have brought him back to the pack, and at this point you have to factor in the likelihood of a DL stint, as he’s failed to exceed 27 starts in three of the past four campaigns. Kershaw may still be the best bet on a per-inning basis, but for the first time in recent memory, it’s totally fair game to jump one of the others over him in favor of more projected innings. Still, regardless of who your champion is, the pristine track records and massive firepower of this foursome make them worthy of first-round consideration.
Elite or Bust
After the top four guys, things get murky awfully quick. What follows is a slew of big upside options, but with varying degrees of concern. If you don’t get in on the Big Four, you’ll most likely be searching for your number one among these names.
We’ve seen what Noah Syndergaard and Madison Bumgarner are capable of, but do you trust them? Syndergaard has that Cy Young award-winning stuff, but a torn lat left him with all of 30 1/3 innings in 2017, and he’s yet to surpass 200 innings in his young career. Meanwhile, Bumgarner had a freak and ultimately foolish dirt bike accident that robbed him of three months with a shoulder injury. While he managed to make 17 starts with solid results, the strikeout rate dropped to an uncharacteristic 22.4%. Despite the health concerns, you’re not even getting that big a discount in ADP, with both players hovering around the top-30 overall. That said, if you’re willing to take the plunge and they pitch like it’s 2016, you’ll be well rewarded.
Along the same lines, we have the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Yu Darvish and Carlos Martinez, who each only have one 200-inning season on their respective resumes, but are elite fantasy specimens. Darvish has arguably seen the biggest dip in perceived value compared to last year, following a slight jump in ERA (3.68) and a poor World Series showing. But he logged his most innings since 2013 (186 2/3) and the dazzling array of pitches still submitted a strong 27.3% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate.
Of those getting top billing this season, Luis Severino is certainly deserving of being listed with the elite, but he also comes with the smallest track record of success. Even so, when you break out with a 2.98 ERA and 1.04 WHIP that’s supported by a 29.4% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, and 50.6% ground-ball rate, you’re going to turn some heads. Given the huge leap in production, it’s natural to expect some regression, but the skills say he’s here to stay.
With 200 innings becoming so elusive, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and Chris Archer round out the top arms for all hitting that figure in three of the past four seasons. Of course, they aren’t also without their own question marks, with Verlander and Greinke getting up there in age, and Archer posting an ERA over 4.00 the past two seasons. But the strikeout upside remains, and the ability to rack up productive innings is at a premium.
On the Cusp?
Aaron Nola arguably deserves to be listed among the elite, and those who are bullish on him will be more than happy to roll with him as their number one at an ADP nearing 70 overall. Injuries have slowed his rise, but with last year’s 26.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate to go with his propensity for ground balls, there’s no denying the ceiling if the innings are there.
Robbie Ray came through in a big way in 2017, putting together a stellar 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 32.8% strikeout rate. However, the concern is a lucky .267 BABIP to go with a shaky 10.7% walk rate and 40.4% hard-hit rate. With red flags like that, we can’t expect a full repeat of last season’s numbers, but if he can shake some of the free passes and perhaps get some help from Chase Field’s new humidor, another strong campaign awaits.
Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Quintana are both coming off down years, marred by some particularly forgettable first-half results. Still, they each saw spikes in strikeout rate and found some redemption in the latter months. The questions linger — Tanaka hasn’t always been a beacon of health and continues to struggle with the long ball, while Quintana didn’t see a change in swinging strike rate to necessarily explain the leap in punchouts. But if you buy into the positives from last year, there’s some upside to be found in a bounce-back 2018 season.
Gerrit Cole seemed to be on the path to stardom after a brilliant 2015 season, but ever since the results haven’t quite been there. Following an injury-marred 2016, Cole managed to rekindle the strikeout rate (23.1%) and innings (203) last year, but also saw a career-worst 4.26 ERA, which can be explained by an unlikely 15.9% HR/FB rate. He allowed 31 homers after coughing up just 36 in the prior four seasons combined. Expect a return to normalcy in 2018, and considering he’s still just 27 years old, that ace may reemerge yet.
The Talk of the Town: Shohei Ohtani
You might have heard of some guy named Shohei Ohtani discussed this offseason. A lot. The current ADP for the intriguing Japanese import sits in the 70s, but don’t be surprised if there’s someone who inevitably springs for him far earlier in your drafts.
Strictly as a pitcher, is he worth this lofty price? His Steamer projections peg him for a 3.56 ERA with a 29.6% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate, which speaks to the potential everyone is hoping for. But they also give him just 148.0 innings, and therein lies the rub. Ohtani only threw 25 1/3 innings in Japan last year, and the most he’s ever thrown in a season is 160 2/3. That strikeout power sure is enticing, but you’re also taking a big leap of faith that he can give you the innings to make it worth your while.
Show Me The Innings!
Of course, with inning totals dropping across the board, Ohtani’s profile isn’t all that different to a slew of other high-upside arms. James Paxton, Lance McCullers, Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Garrett Richards, and Charlie Morton can put up amazing numbers on a per-inning basis, but can they put up the actual innings? Let’s face it, realistically 200 innings is a pipe dream for these guys, but if the stars align you’ll be in for a treat. However, be sure you pair them with a more reliable innings workhorse in case of the (likely?) alternative.
Young up-and-comers along the lines of Luis Castillo, Jose Berrios, Luke Weaver fit a similar mold, showing tantalizing potential in their limited major league innings. Like our injury-prone friends, it’s difficult to put a number on their total projected innings, and with all three at age-25 or younger, it’s best to remember that progression doesn’t always come in a straight line — there could always be some growing pains. You can’t enjoy the latest breakout if you don’t take a shot, though, right?
David Price is coming off a decidedly disappointing season, but he makes for an interesting case because despite throwing just 74 2/3 innings, his underlying numbers ultimately weren’t that different from what we’ve come to expect. He still managed a 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 24.0% strikeout rate — all strong marks and not far off his career norms. It’s worth noting his best numbers came out of the bullpen at the end of the year, but given the circumstances surrounding his elbow, there are reasons to be optimistic. The downside is still severe, but let’s not forget he rattled off three straight seasons with 220-plus innings before last year’s setback.
Like Price, Johnny Cueto piled up the innings with the best of them entering 2017, with three consecutive campaigns over 210 innings. The strikeout rate wasn’t amazing, but he could rack up value with sheer volume. That all came crashing down in 2017, as blisters took a chunk out of his innings (147 1/3), and with it went his normally pristine ERA (4.52) and WHIP (1.45). Was it a fluke or the beginning of a disturbing trend? Considering he had the ace label just last season, it’s worth taking the chance to find out.
Other Notables
Since winning the Cy Young in 2015, Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been able to quite match that form, and injuries have taken a chunk out of his innings the past couple seasons. An average strikeout rate drops the ceiling, but last year’s impressive 66.8% ground-ball rate and 24.7% hard-hit rate continue to grant a high floor with health.
Zack Godley had himself a breakout season in 2017, compiling a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 155 innings. He could stand to drop the walk rate (8.5%), but the strikeout rate (26.3%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%) are strong bullet points. Expect a slight step back, but the skills are promising, and the humidor situation can’t hurt as well.
Jeff Samardzija has rarely been an exciting fantasy asset, with the ERA jumping all over the place throughout his career. But in 2018, there’s something to be said for hitting 200 innings five seasons in a row. A 3.63 SIERA suggests improvement off last year’s 4.42 ERA, and pitching in AT&T Park can do wonders for a pitcher’s bottom line. He’s the perfect pairing with some of the riskier arms in the previous section.
Jon Gray doesn’t get as much love for being a Rockies pitcher, and yet in 2017 he actually had a better ERA at home (3.13) than on the road (4.06). It’s probably just noise, but maybe Gray can handle the beast that is Coors Field? An unlucky foot injury stole a good chunk of last season, but a 24.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 48.9% ground-ball rate are all good signs. At 26 years old, there’s still room for growth. Of course, Coors remains the wild card.
If you’re looking for punchouts going outside the first 200 picks, look no further than Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger. Double-digit walk rates hindered both last year, but they also displayed excellent firepower, putting up strikeout rates north of 27%. You might want to strap in for a bumpy ride, though.
At first glance, Tyler Chatwood looks like a poor fantasy bet considering his career 4.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. But the man just escaped Coors Field, and what do you know, he has a career 3.31 ERA on the road. Naturally, it’s foolish to think he’ll suddenly drop his ERA quite that low, and his double-digit walk rate could continue to be an eyesore. Even so, he saw an uptick in velocity in 2017, and the ground-ball skills are elite at a 58.1% clip. We’re not expecting any miracles, but clearly, the Chicago Cubs saw something when they gave him $38 million, and it won’t cost you much to find out at an ADP up around 270.
2018 Outfield Primer
2018 Third Base Primer
2018 Shortstop Primer
2018 Second Base Primer
2018 First Base Primer
2018 Catcher Primer
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
