Pitching at a high level is arguably the most difficult thing to do in sports. That’s why when elite arms hit the open market or get locked up to a contract extension, it’s usually a hefty nine-figure contract over 5+ seasons. However, it also doesn’t take much to derail a pitcher’s season. Pitching is done with so much precision that even a slight twinge in your back or some shoulder inflammation can cause you to miss extended periods of time. Just ask Clayton Kershaw, who I came very close to including in this article.
So, why did I mention all that? Simple. It just shows how hard it is to find consistent pitchers in fantasy and how much risk and reward there is at this position from one season to the next. This year will be no different. Right off the bat, we start with arguably the most hyped foreign player ever that has already had his fair share of struggles in spring training.
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Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAA)
You knew he’d be included in this article. Has there ever been more of a high-risk, high-reward pitcher than Shohei Ohtani in fantasy baseball? If there has been, I can’t think of one.
Saying that this spring was a struggle for the 23-year-old right-hander would be an understatement. At the plate, Ohtani only could muster three singles in 28 at-bats with nine strikeouts. We all knew most of his value would be on the mound anyway, but a .326 OPS is a tad worrisome. It’s a small sample size, sure. But it’s looking like it’s going to take longer than anticipated for Ohtani to settle in at the dish in the Major Leagues.
At least he was solid on the mound this spring, right? Wrong. Very wrong. Ohtani allowed three home runs and eight earned runs in just 2.2 innings of work while walking two and striking out five. That equates to a 27.00 ERA and 4.12 WHIP.
The biggest problem I’ve seen thus far with Ohtani on the hill is his fastball. Not the velocity, but the movement. He’s not getting much arm side run on it and is catching far too much of the plate. It doesn’t matter how hard you throw. If it’s straight and over the heart of the plate, you might as well be working at Olive Garden, serving up those meatballs.
Yes, I know that joke was terrible. Bad dad jokes are my thing.
To secure Ohtani’s services, it’s going to cost you a top-100 pick or a hefty price in an auction. Now, he could very easily dominate on the hill, hold his own at the plate, and return top-50 value. I don’t think many would be overly shocked by that given the talent and upside Ohtani possesses. But the Major Leagues can take a bit to get acclimated to for anyone, especially players getting used to a new country as well.
Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS)
This is going to be the ninth season in Stephen Strasburg’s career and we’re still waiting for that second 200+ innings pitched campaign. Strasburg pitched 215 innings back in 2014, but that’s it. His next highest amount of innings is only 183.
It’d be stupendous if Strasburg could stay on the field for a full season every now and then. He’s proven to us that he has the talent to be one of the best hurlers in the game when healthy. Over 184 career starts, Strasburg has a 3.07 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9. Those are great stats, but unfortunately, he’s only averaged around 25 starts per season.
His draft stock this year has soared to new heights due to his strong 2017 season. In 28 starts, Strasburg went 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9. The ERA and WHIP were both career-highs and the 15 wins tied a career-high.
That strong season has pushed his ADP to just outside the top-25 overall this spring. That’s just flat out insane. Strasburg certainly has top-25 upside, but all those injuries make him equally as risky in 2018.
James Paxton (SP – SEA)
It’s beginning to become apparent that James Paxton and Strasburg were cut from the same cloth. Paxton enjoyed a career year in 2017, posting a 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.3 K/9, which were all career-bests for the 29-year-old Canadian southpaw.
Those numbers would’ve looked even better if they had been in more than 24 starts and 136 innings pitched. Oh, and guess what? Those were career-highs for Paxton as well. Having a career-high of 136 innings isn’t anything to write home about. I mean, it’s more than you or I will ever have, but for a Major League hurler approaching the age of 30, that’s nothing.
There’s a lot to like about Paxton heading into 2018. He owns one of the Major League’s most effective fastballs and induces plenty of groundballs and soft hit flyballs with the offering. According to FanGraphs, only Justin Verlander and Chris Sale had more effective fastballs last season than Paxton did. It’d just be nice if his health was likable, too.
Even with his success last season, it’s amazing that a man that has never even eclipsed 150 innings in a season is being taken as a top-20 SP and top-75 overall pick. You’re basically paying for what he did last season, plus an innings bump. Could he do that? Absolutely, but the risk is immense here.
Alex Wood (SP – LAD)
It was a tale of two halves last season for Alex Wood. In the first half, Wood dominated to the tune of a 10-0 record, 1.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9. Who do you think you are, Clayton Kershaw? Obviously, Wood isn’t Kershaw, so we knew that those first-half numbers were unsustainable. However, I can’t imagine many expected as much of a drop off as there was.
Wood’s ERA rose over two full runs in the second half of the season to 3.89 while his WHIP jumped up to 1.24. On top of that, his strikeout rate plummeted. After posting a 10.8 K/9 in the first half, all Wood could manage in the second half was a 6.8 K/9.
All those numbers aren’t necessarily terrible, but that’s not what you’re looking for when you use a near top-100 pick on a man likely to be one of the top three or four starting pitchers on your fantasy squad when the season gets underway.
All you need to do is review those stats I just rambled off to see how much of a high risk/high reward pick Wood is this season. He has the upside of a top-10 fantasy SP, as he showed to start the 2017 season. However, he could very easily carry over that late-season production and struggle to be a top-50 option. You also need to factor in the shoulder woes that caused some of his struggles and forced him to miss time down the stretch.
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Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @EricCross04.
