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Do Not Draft List (Fantasy Baseball)

Do Not Draft List (Fantasy Baseball)

Let’s get the easy stuff out of the way – there is no such thing as a do not draft list or, at least, there shouldn’t be. You never walk into a draft thinking that you are absolutely not drafting a player under any circumstances.

Instead, rather than a do not draft list, you likely have a “will not draft at his price” list. In other words, most fantasy owners recognize players who they’re simply not willing to draft at the player’s average draft position. It’s one of the reasons why, if you’re in several leagues, you end up without certain players on any teams (and conversely, with the same group of players on many teams).

So today, we’re going to talk about my do not draft list. Or, rather, my “I don’t think you should draft this guy at his price” list. And, just to hammer the point home, I have at least one share of each of these guys because at some point, in some draft, their draft price fell to a point where I was comfortable pulling the trigger. But generally speaking, I’m not drafting the following players.

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Masahiro Tanaka (NYY – SP)
Tanaka is being drafted 83rd overall as the 22nd starting pitcher off the board. You don’t need me to tell you about Tanaka’s struggles last year, but since he’s on my do not draft list, I’m going to anyway. Tanaka finished last year with the highest ERA (4.74), WHIP (1.24), and walk rate (5.5%) of his career. And, most glaring, he gave up an incredible 35 home runs, leading the league in HR/FB rate (21.2%). The reasons for optimism (and his lofty spot in the rankings) is that Tanaka improved significantly in the second half, pitching to a 3.77 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. The change can be attributed to a dramatic increase in his slider usage and a decrease in fastball usage and was supported by the underlying metrics.

That’s all well and good, and Tanaka did have the highest strikeout rate of his career in 2017. But is Tanaka really going to throw his slider 34% of the time and his fastball less than 26% of the time, as he did over the second half of last year? Other than R.A. Dickey, a knuckleballer who rarely throws his fastball, the pitcher who threw the next lowest percentage of fastballs last year was Corey Kluber and that was 42.5%!

I have a hard time buying into Tanaka going an entire season simply not throwing his fastball at all, and I think hitters would eventually adjust if he tried. And even accepting for the sake of argument that Tanaka stuck with that gameplan, I’m simply not willing to invest that draft capital on a pitcher who is going to throw a ton of sliders (Tanaka’s 34% slider rate in the second half would have ranked eighth-highest in MLB) and split-fingered fastballs and is ALREADY pitching with a partially torn UCL in his elbow.

Tanaka isn’t nearly as bad as he seemed to be last in the first half of last year. But I’m far from buying him at close to his second half numbers, which you’ll need to do to draft him at his current ADP.

Nick Castellanos (DET – 3B)
I’m honestly surprised that Castellanos has gotten as much traction as he has this year. Truth be told, his cost isn’t by any means prohibitive. He’s still going just 124th overall and as the 16th third baseman off the board. But even at that price, I’m finding plenty of other hitters I’m willing to draft over Castellanos at that spot.

Yes, Castellanos had a career year, but we all know by now that the statcast data used in Comerica Park was inflated. His fantasy season, while by far the best of his career, was largely based on his 101 RBI, which were third-most among third basemen. In light of how much worse the Tigers offense has gotten this year, there’s little to no chance Castellanos will come close to that number.

And, despite setting a career high in home runs, Castellanos’ fly ball rate actually dropped about five points (from 43% to 38.2%) and his ground ball rate rose to a career high. And although he was solid all year, his huge final month (.359/.377/.632) greatly inflated his overall numbers.

In the end, Castellanos represents exactly the difference between a do not draft list and a do not draft at his price list. I like the youngster just fine and have ended up with him on a team or two. But with less to support his breakout than appears on the surface, I’m willing to pass at his price.

Tommy Pham (STL – OF)
The thing is, I really do like Pham. But at 52nd overall and as the 16th outfielder off the board, I have never once been able to pull the trigger.

Pham had a brilliant season in 2017, with 23 home runs, 25 steals, and a .306 batting average over 128 games. Nothing about his performance seemed particularly unsustainable, as his walk rate was high, his strikeout rate manageable, and his batted ball profile suggestive of an above average hitter. But just because a Cardinals player has a random breakout year that seems supportable by the underlying data, that does not mean he’s suddenly a superstar (see Diaz, Aledmys).

There are a few reasons why I can’t pull the trigger on Pham at his current draft price. For one, he’s got an enormous injury history, plays like his hair is on fire, and is entering his age-30 season, and so even if you buy into Pham as an elite hitter, he carries more of a risk of injury than most. Second, he hits a ton of ground balls, and even last year had a 51.7% ground ball rate, 12th-highest in the league. While he hit 23 home runs last year, it would be difficult to see him getting close to that mark again. And third, the (self-explained) reason that Pham struggled to hit consistently was an eye problem that even he admits is not “solved,” but is instead just currently managed and affects him in day games.

In the end, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pham have a great season. But with so many red flags, it’s a little difficult to pay the price to find out.

All non-elite closers before the late rounds
I thought about singling some guys out, but we’re really talking about pretty much everyone outside of the top-five closers. I’m anywhere from 30 to 60 spots lower than the expert consensus rankings on Corey Knebel, Ken Giles, Brad Hand, Edwin Diaz, etc. Although I obviously draft closers, I’m more than willing to pick and choose from the Jeurys Familias and Blake Treinens of the world several rounds later.

For the reasons why, just take a look at the foursome I mentioned. Almost nobody drafted Knebel or Hand last year and both Giles and Diaz lost their jobs. That’s because a) relief pitchers are extraordinarily volatile and b) nearly half of closers on average lose their job due to injury or ineffectiveness. When I’m in the eighth round (Knebel) or the ninth round (Giles), I’m much more concerned with continuing to stack my offense or starting pitching than I am in adding a guy who walks nearly five batters per nine innings or the closer on a World Series-winning team who was demoted during the playoffs.

Spend your draft capital wisely. If you find yourself in position to draft Kenley Jansen or Craig Kimbrel at a reasonable spot, go for it. Otherwise, build a stronger team elsewhere first.

Javier Baez (CHC – 2B)
I originally had Baez irrationally low on my draft board before moving him up as the offseason went along. Thankfully, he’s now just borderline unsupportably low. But however you want to describe it, I have not come close to grabbing him at his 133 ADP.

Baez is an extremely exciting player, and one of the few infielders who you’d pay to see slap a tag down on a baserunner attempting a stolen base. But if he cracks 500 plate appearances this season, I’ll be surprised. For all his tools, Baez has a career .300 on-base percentage and a 28.3% strikeout rate last year. If you’ve listened to Joe Maddon’s comments this offseason, it’s clear that he seems frustrated with Baez’s lack of development at getting on base, and has essentially said he needs to earn playing time.

And although the Cubs lineup is not overflowing with extra pieces, there are plenty of guys to take playing time away from Baez. Ian Happ may start in the outfield most days but he’s obviously a more than capable second baseman. Albert Almora is an elite defender and should play against lefties (which would move Happ to second base), and oldie but goodie Ben Zobrist is still hanging around.

Baez has upside, but if he doesn’t show growth as a hitter, I’d be concerned about his playing time as the summer goes along. And because he’s shown few signs of growth thus far, I’m not taking him at his ADP.

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.

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