After almost all teams have played two games, we’ve seen the usual overreaction theater in the media and amongst ourselves. While it’s become customary to freak out about early results, remember, it’s a marathon…not a sprint. Saturday Night offers a seven-game main slate and some solid pitching. Most of my lineup constructions will have either Yu Darvish (CHC) $12,200 @ MIA or Zach Greinke (ARI) $10,100 vs. COL in the SP1 slot. After starting with a stud SP, we’ll need to find some value to unlock a couple high-end bats. Let’s go!
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Pitcher
Kenta Maeda (LAD): $9,800 vs. SF
A bit of a stretch on “value” due to his price tag, but if you’re not spending up on SP1, Maeda is a solid anchor in a plus matchup against the Giants at home in a pitcher-friendly park. He’s also a heavy (-192) favorite today, and should have a solid outing win or lose as San Fran has only scored one run in each game this season. He’s shown improved control through the last two seasons as his walk rate slowly improves. The plays in this article are not corollary as I’ll recommend some Giants today in passing, but it’s purely price-based to allow some cap room.
Brent Suter (MIL): $5,600 @ SD
This is a risky play, but Suter is favored (-116) and dirt-cheap. He offers tremendous strikeout upside as only his team struck out more than the Padres last year…and you can’t pitch against your own team. Now, keep that in mind for the other notables below. Granted, San Diego added Eric Hosmer and Freddy Galvis (16.3 & 18.6 career K% respectively) but those aren’t major factors on a team that whiffs over 25% of the time in 2017.
Other Notables
Luis Perdomo (SD): $6,300 vs. MIL
Catcher
Jason Castro (MIN): $3,000 @ BAL
Castro has consistently hit righty arms better in his career and should get the nod today vs. Andrew Cashner. Cashner has allowed a robust .429 SLG and .333 wOBA over his career to lefty bats and walks over 10% of them. Castro has put out a .326 wOBA and displayed an improved eye at the dish the last two years, especially against RHP. Cashner gives up a lot of hard contact and flyballs versus lefties.
Other Notables
Drew Butera (KC): $2,5000 vs. CHW
First Base
Chris Davis (BAL): $3,800 vs. MIN
Davis has declined from his glory days of smashing close to 50 HRs a year. Even coming off a down year, he still mashed right-handed pitchers to the tune of a .250 ISO and .329 wOBA, not far off from his career .265/.364 marks. He’s affordable and draws RHP Kyle Gibson today. “Crush” is in play as he’s oddly been leading off for the O’s.
Other Notables
Brandon Belt (SF): $3,100 @ LAD
Second Base
Joe Panik (SF): $3,400 @ LAD
Panik has been stroking the solo shots to start off 2018, already going deep in both of the Giants games in L.A. I highly doubt he goes yard for a third straight game, but he’s obviously getting good wood on the ball. In no way should you play him or Belt if you roster Maeda, but if you don’t both he and Belt should be hitting in the top of the order today and they’re very affordable.
Other Notables
Ozzie Albies (ATL): $3,800 vs. PHI
Third Base
Mike Moustakas (KC): $4,000 vs. CHW
Moustakas set a Royals record with 38 HRs in 2017. 29 of last year’s long balls came against RHP as he crushed righties with a .268 ISO and .353 wOBA. While most damage came on the road last year, he’ll likely hit 3rd against Sox righty Lucas Gioltio, who has struggled mightily in the bigs. Even after a decent Spring, I’m willing to pay $4,000 for Moose’s matchup.
Other Notables
Tim Beckham (BAL): $3,600 vs. MIN (also SS eligible)
Shortstop
Manny Machado (BAL): $4,900 vs. MIN
I don’t feel comfortable telling you to do anything other than jam Machado or his teammate, Beckham, in at SS. You should be able to afford him with some of the cheaper plays I’ve identified today. Manny is elite and proved why advanced stats can be useful as he was one of the unluckiest players in the first half and blew up as predicted in the second half. He’s a beast, play him.
Other Notables
Ketel Marte (ARI): $3,400 vs. COL (also 2B eligible)
Outfield
Manuel Margot (SD): $3,200 vs. MIL
Margot’s excellent 2017 season was fueled by some surprising power. You’d probably be even more surprised if I told you that the main driver behind it was his .222 ISO at home against southpaws. Couple that with a .352 wOBA vs. LHP and he makes for an excellent point-per-dollar play today.
Max Kepler (MIN): $3,400 @ BAL
Kepler is the perfect play to round out that stack as he’s put up a career .212 ISO and .343 wOBA against RHP. Kepler will likely hit 7th, so you may have to decide between him and Castro is you’re doing a 5-man stack. I like Twins LH bats quite a bit today, as you can tell from the next value play. Again, targeting Twins LH bats vs. Cashner is a sound strategy in tonight’s slate.
Eddie Rosario (MIN): $3,500 @ BAL
Yes, another Twinkie! You’ve probably guessed that they’re one of my favorite team stacks today. Rosario has been batting cleanup for Minnesota, so he has some pop to go along with his speed. I already mentioned how bad Andrew Cashner is, but to further emphasize the matchup, Rosario has a respectable career .217 ISO and .333 wOBA against RHP, very similar to his teammate above.
Other Notables
Gregor Blanco (SF): $2,300 @ LAD (GPP salary saver special)
Jarrod Dyson (ARI): $3,000 vs. COL
Lorenzo Cain/Ryan Braun (MIL): $4,000 @ SD (Braun also 1B eligible)
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Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.
