Normally when I write a buy-low piece, I look for a player that owners should target that offers the chance to produce max value for multiple years. With this article, though, I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to write about one of, if not my favorite free agent signing this offseason. With all the big name players that changed teams either via trade or signing this offseason, this addition was more under the radar. In the end, though, it could be one of the most valuable moves for the Detroit Lions and fantasy owners.
I feel like most Lions players are severely underappreciated. I wrote about Golden Tate in my previous article, detailing veteran players to sell high on, but you also have Marvin Jones and Matthew Stafford who typically are not considered top players at their position. For the first time in forever (queue the music Disney fans) the Lions may actually have a decent running game as well. The addition of LeGarrette Blount gives the Lions a big, smash-mouth running back that hasn’t been available to Matthew Stafford since he was drafted. In case you were wondering, no, I am not counting Joique Bell or Mikel Leshoure as smash-mouth running backs.
Get a free $3 Best Ball entry into a 2018 DRAFT contest with your first deposit 
Blount is coming from the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles after just one season. He brings with him back-to-back championships, a mindset the Lions could use more of in the locker room. More importantly, Blount brings the opportunity to finish. That is a key word for the Lions. They have never been good about finishing anything. They haven’t been able to finish a season and they don’t finish a drive either. If you watch a lot of Lions games, you know that drives can die out after they reach the Red Zone.
Since 2014, the Lions have averaged the 11th best Red Zone scoring percentage in the NFL. Not bad, but that is because they have relied on Stafford to finish it off instead of having a balanced attacked. Luckily, Stafford has a knack for coming through in big moments, regardless of his win-loss record. This is where I think Blount will have tremendous value for the Lions and fantasy owners in 2018. Last season, Stafford had 29 touchdowns, but 13 of those came within the 10-yard line. 13 times the Lions needed Stafford to pass for a TD within the 10-yard line. I just wanted to repeat that really quick, because Blount is going to get a shot at a majority of those 13 TDs this season. Two seasons ago, Blount led the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns, the only time he has eclipsed the double-digit mark in his career.
Not only have the Lions relied on Stafford to finish drives, but they have also had to rely on Matt Prater to finish the scoring when they cannot get into the end zone. Since Prater joined the Lions in 2014, he has attempted 27 field goals within 30 yards. The amount of opportunities Blount will have to punch the ball in the end zone will be extremely high. The Lions offense has always been able to move the ball, but it has been finishing drives that avoids them at times.
Blount’s one year in Philadelphia didn’t turn out as hoped. Only two touchdowns to go with 766 yards doesn’t sound like the season you buy into, but it wasn’t all about how effective he was. Blount actually managed more yards per carry in 2017 (4.4 YPC) than he did in 2016 (3.9 YPC). The addition of Jay Ajayi in Week 8 and emergence of Corey Clement helped to push down Blount’s snap count. Blount averaged 12 rushing attempts per game until the Eagles traded for Ajayi and only nine attempts per game after. If he would have continued to average 12 attempts per game from Week 8 till the end of the season, he would have had 27 more attempts on the season for an extra 118 yards, based on his YPC last season. He would have ended much closer to 900 rushing yards.
The fact is, Blount will not have any competition in Detroit unless they spend a high draft pick on a running back. Considering the Lions have holes they need to fill on the offensive and defensive line first, a running back early in the draft may not be as likely as it was a few weeks ago. If the Lions do go that route, it may be a back that can help more in the passing game to start, leaving Blount open to vulture those TDs.
As I mentioned earlier, Blount is not the typical buy-low option I go to for dynasty football. If you are buying into players in dynasty, you normally want to have them around for an extended time. Blount may only have enough value to warrant a roster spot in 2018. If you are a team competing for a championship, Blount is a must-own for me. He has tremendous upside this year, but at worst could be an RB3 or flex play based on his TD upside each week. With all of the injuries we saw to top players last season, having some depth with this upside is very important. Blount is just two seasons removed from an RB9 performance, and even though that was with the Patriots, Matt Patricia will know how Blount was utilized and make sure it’s done the same way in Detroit.
If you are not competing for a championship this season, I still think you should add Blount right now. In dynasty drafts, Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah are still being drafted ahead of Blount and he isn’t even going in the top 250 right now. Owners are scared off for several reasons. The Lions inability to effectively implement a run game for so many years, Blount’s disappointing 2017 and the fact Detroit may still take a back in the draft. Fantasy football is all about risks, and this is one of them. However, this is a calculated risk. You could add Blount for next to nothing right now and the potential upside is much better than the floor because you paid for the floor right now. If the Lions don’t add another back in the draft, then you will need to start paying for the ceiling which creates more risk. For a team that won’t compete this year, paying pennies for Blount now and flipping him in-season to a contender will bring a decent return. Blount is in for a bounce-back 2018 campaign, but moving quickly will be your best bet for high value in this case.
Kyle Richardson is a correspondent for FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @krich1532.
