Geoff Lambert breaks down value plays for Friday’s slate of FanDuel NBA contests.
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Welcome once again to the Friday edition of my FanDuel values column. Today we have an uncharacteristically small slate of only six games, but there is still some decent value to be found — especially with some of the Warrior’s players already ruled out for today. As always, my values will all be under $5,500, let’s get started…
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Point Guard
D.J. Augustin (ORL) $5,500 vs BOS
Augustin dropped 44.6 FanDuel points on the Bucks just a few nights ago, and at $5,500, he makes a good value play again tonight. I don’t expect him to come anywhere near the production he had in his last game, but the Celtics will be without a few key players and their normally stellar defense may struggle to defend Augustin. For the season, no team allows fewer FanDuel points to opposing point guards then does Boston (41.20), however, over the last week with players in and out of the lineup, they rank in the bottom 10, giving up nearly 47 FD points per game.
Others to consider: J.J. Barea $5,300, Sindarius Thornwell $3,800
Shooting Guard
Nick Young (GSW) $4,700 vs SAC
As I mentioned in the open, a lot of Golden State players have either already been ruled out or are could be out, giving guys like Young a chance to log more minutes. He played 31 minutes in his last game with Steph Curry (ankle) and Klay Thompson (thumb) out, and you can expect a similar workload tonight with both of the starting guards out again. Young has never met a shot he didn’t like, and on a team that will lack firepower on offense, look for him to shoot early and often. When Curry, Klay and Kevin Durant (ribs) have been out this season, Young’s usage rate jumps up a full 11.5 percent to a Russell Westbrook-like 30.3%. Durant is currently listed as questionable, but even if he plays I still like Young at $4,700.
Wayne Ellington (MIA) $4,200 @ LAL
Ellington is another guy that has never met a shot he didn’t like, and he too may benefit from some keys players out of the lineup. Dwyane Wade (hamstring) is out already, Hassan Whiteside (hip) is listed out and Josh Richardson (foot) is listed as doubtful. When those three players have been off the court this season, Ellington’s usage rate is a respectable 20.1 percent. Couple that with a great matchup against a Lakers team giving up 40.82 FanDuel points per game to shooting guards over the last four weeks and you have a great value at $4,200.
Others to consider: J.J. Redick $4,900
Small Forward
Omri Casspi (GSW) $3,700 vs SAC
We are going to go to the well once more to take another value from the depleted Warriors. Casspi played 20 minutes in his last game with Curry and Thompson out, which is more than double the number of minutes he was getting before that game. Now, with Durant possibly out as well, he could easily log 25-to-30 minutes making him an excellent value at $3,700. If you want to play the revenge narrative, this will be the first time he will log heavy minutes against his former team that unceremoniously cut him last season.
Corey Brewer (OKC) $4,900 vs LAC
Brewer’s role and minutes have increased in each of his last five games and he now has two straight 30-plus FanDuel point games. Tonight he gets a dream matchup with a Clippers team ranks fifth worst against the small forward position giving up 46.73 FanDuel points over the last four weeks. This is also a huge “pace up” game for him as the Clippers rank as the sixth fastest paced team in the league, while the Thunder rank much slower at 19th.
Others to consider: Mario Hezonja $4,600
Power Forward
James Johnson (MIA) $4,700 @ LAL
At power forward we are going to pick on the small-ish frontcourt of the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers give up 48.39 FanDuel points to power forwards over the last four weeks, and that is an improvement over their season average of 49.25. Only the Suns give up more points to power forwards on the year then do the Lakers. With Whiteside set to miss this game, Johnson will have to pick up some of the slack in the frontcourt, as will the next guy on my list…
Bam Adebayo (MIA) $3,900 @ LAL
What Abebayo lacks in an offense game, he will more than make up for it on the boards. The Lakers are the highest paced team in the league and that means there will be a ton of opportunities for the man known simply as Bam to grab rebounds. If you are trying to decide which of the Heat power forwards to roster, I think Johnson has more upside for tournaments while Adebayo has a higher floor for cash games.
Others to consider: Kevon Looney $3,800
Center
Zaza Pachulia (GSW) $3,700 vs SAC
Pachulia rounds out our trifecta of Warriors in tonight’s column. Over his last two games, he is averaging 24 minutes and 36.3 FanDuel points per game while registering two straight double-doubles. With Durant likely out, he may be forced to play even more, and he gets a great matchup against the Kings who rank in the bottom seven in Fanduel points allowed to opposing centers.
Others to consider: Greg Monroe $4,800
