Geoff Lambert breaks down value plays for Friday’s slate of FanDuel NBA contests.
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Welcome to the Friday edition of my NBA FanDuel value column. Tonight we have a massive 10-game slate to work with and plenty of value to be had.
Late scratches are becoming more and more prevalent as we get closer and closer to the playoffs — and it’s ruining some good lineups. Guys like Tyreke Evans a few nights ago and Dennis Schroder last night have really left a sour taste in some DFS player’s mouths. It may be hard to do, but limiting your late-game exposure over the last few weeks of the season might not be a bad idea.
With that in mind, let’s get to tonight’s values…
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Point Guard
Fred VanVleet (TOR) $5,000 vs BKN
Not including the two games VanVleet (hand) missed, he has two straight games of 33-plus FanDuel points and played 30 minutes in each game. One of those games Kyle Lowry sat out, but in his last game, both Lowry and DeMar DeRozan played, and he was still able to log 30 minutes. Tonight he gets a matchup with a Nets team that is dead last in points allowed to point guards over the last four weeks, as they give up 54.59 FanDuel points per game over that span. Not to mention, if this game turns into a blowout, the Raptors may choose to rest Lowry or DeRozan in preparation for playoffs, meaning more minutes for VanVleet.
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford (MIN) $4,000 @ NYK
Crawford’s value comes from whether or not he is hitting his shot. When he is on, he is on. When he is off, he can ruin your FanDuel lineup. Crawford is one of those players that likes to play in Madison Square Garden. Since the 2014 season, Crawford has averaged a shade over 20 NBA points in the Garden, even while playing limited minutes as the sixth man on the Clippers. He has played 27 or more minutes in three of his last four games, and if his shot is falling, will log 27-plus again tonight. At $4,000, he has nice upside.
Manu Ginobili (SAS) $3,600 vs UTA
I don’t have a lot of stats to back up why you should play Ginobili tonight, this is more of a gut call… an educated gut call if you will. It was reported that the Spurs held a players-only meeting imploring Kawhi Leonard to play. This report has since been refuted by Spurs guard Danny Green, however, the damage had been done. The Spurs look more vulnerable than they ever had during Greg Popovich’s tenure as the head coach, and I expect them to come out fired up. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not expecting the Spurs to suddenly start winning games, but I am expecting Ginobili to come out shooting — a lot. At his near minimum price tag of $3,600, if he shoots the ball a ton, there is a good chance he will exceed his value and give you a good return on investment.
Small Forward
Corey Brewer (OKC) $5,000 vs MIA
I’m actually very surprised that with Brewer’s recent play and his increase in playing time he is still only $5,000. He has averaged 32.54 FanDuel points over his last five games while logging 30-plus minutes in all five. His floor is pretty high as well because he rebounds, blocks shots and gets steals. In fact, he is averaging 3.2 steals over those five games — that’s nine FanDuel points in steals alone. The Heat are a tough matchup for him, but with Russell Westbrook and Paul George getting most of the attention, Brewer will be able to put up some good numbers against them.
Power Forward
Dragan Bender (PHO) $4,200 @ CLE
The Suns have already mailed in their season and have decided to give their young guys some playing time to see what assets they have to build on for next season. One of those assets is PF Dragan Bender. Bender has logged 30 or more minutes in eight of his last 10 games, and while he doesn’t have gaudy fantasy numbers to show for it, his production is consistent. The Cavaliers are bottom 10 in defending the power forward position over the last four weeks, and that rank is likely to get worse with the return of defensive liability Kevin Love.
Center
Mike Muscala (ATL) $4,400 @ GSW
Much like Bender, Muscala isn’t going to post gaudy fantasy numbers — even with extended minutes. He will, however, give you some salary relief and should be able to hit five times value (22 FanDuel points) against a Warriors team that is bottom eight in NBA points allowed to power forwards on the season. He doesn’t offer much in the way of upside, but at $4,400, he should allow you to pay up for a player with upside at another position.
