Just a week away from The Masters in Augusta, many Tour pros are headed to Houston for a tune up, as this week we have the Houston Open (formally named the Shell but the sponsor was dropped). The Houston Open plays at a long Par 72 course. Much of the course is designed to resemble Augusta with relatively wide fairways, non-penalizing rough, and long run off areas. Still, though, despite Augusta looming, many of the game’s best are headed here, as Phil Mickelson, Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth, Henrik Stenson, and Justin Rose lead a strong field at this week’s event. With this being a par 72, we want to target bombers and good Par 5 scorers, since there are four on the course. Let’s dive into the picks.
Stats for the Week
- Par 5 Scoring
- Greens in Regulation
- Birdie or Better %
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Lock of the Week
Russell Henley ($10,200)
Whenever we have a course horse like Henley, I’m locking him in. Henley comes into the event this week with mediocre form, but take a look at his stellar course history over the past four years: 7th, 4th, 5th, 1st. It reminds me of the example I always come back to; Luke Donald at Harbour Town. Donald seems to perform well every single year with constant Top 5s, despite almost constantly bad form coming in. Course history vs. form can be debated, but sometimes a player’s history just stands out so much that you have to lock him in. I’m comfortable having most of my lineups with Henley as an anchor this week at a discounted price from the top guys.
Value Play of the Week
Seungsu Han ($7,700)
I’m going to be honest, before last week’s event, I had no idea who Seungsu Han was. But, after much research, I’ve come to realize how talented Han is. Han is the 82nd ranked golfer in the world and was a seven-time winner on the Japanese Tour last year. He played his collegiate golf in the United States and is trying to become a more frequent PGA Tour player. If this was his first week on Tour I’d be skeptical, but he finished fifth last week in Punta Cana while being 5th in birdies and top 25 in the field in GIR. Han’s price is a perfect value play to compliment the stacked guys at the top, as FanDuel didn’t really get the memo about his talent. I’ll be having lots of Han this week.
Momentum Play of the Week
Brice Garnett ($8,400)
Garnett is the definition of a momentum play, as the 34-year-old won last week in Punta Cana and comes in with plenty of momentum this week. But there are also plenty of other reasons to like to Tour veteran this week, as both his price, course history, and stats check out. His first top 10 on the PGA Tour came at this very event, finishing 7th back in 2015. On top of this, his price on FanDuel puts him around guys who really aren’t warranted plays this week and don’t feature the same form that Garnett has. Finally, Garnett is also 23rd on Tour in Par 5 scoring, a vital stat this week and one that will be imperative to scoring. I’ll be having lots of Garnett in my lineups this week. I’m hoping he carries over the same form we saw last week.
Contrarian Play of the Week
Sean O’Hair ($9,000)
O’Hair has always been an established player on Tour, but after a year of injuries and bad form, he seems to have finally found something in his past two starts. He’s finished with two straight Top 15 finishes in tough fields, while also leading the field this week in Par 4 Scoring from 450-500 yards. He’s scoring well and showing the type of up-and-coming form you want to see, as I could see O’Hair even contending this week. He also has some history, a Top 10 in Houston in 2016 when he showed the same type of form he’s showing now. He’s also 38th on Tour in Par 5 scoring this year – despite a bad start to the year – rounding out why I like O’Hair plenty this week.
Fade of the Week
Luke List ($9,900)
For some reason, the PGA DFS community is going all in on List this week (he’s first in tags on Fanshare as of now). I, personally, don’t get this, as I played List last week at the Match Play and he failed to win one match in group stage. List has always been a streaky player and has been surprisingly consistent this year, but I caution readers to think twice about playing List after a bad week when simultaneously his price is perhaps higher than it’s ever been. Be careful around List this week, and I’m very comfortable fading him at high ownership.
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Ari Neugenboren is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ari, check out his archive and follow him @ari5610.
