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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 1

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 1

Well, that was quick. Just hours before the first pitch of the 2018 baseball season was thrown, closer chaos struck in a big way on Thursday as the Cardinals signed Greg Holland. Kudos to fantasy owners everywhere who nabbed Holland late in their drafts and my condolences go out to Dominic Leone owners.

We also got some much-needed clarity on the Rangers’ closer situation, with Jeff Bannister announcing that Keone Kela will be his main closer. But some other situations got murkier. Giants closer Mark Melancon hit the DL with a flexor strain, opening the door for Hunter Strickland to stake his claim to the job. And Phillies manager Gabe Kapler sent Hector Neris owners into a tizzy by appearing to suggest he won’t have a defined closer — a predicament Neris only worsened by serving up a walk-off homer on Opening Day.

Join us here every week for a roundup of the latest happenings at fantasy baseball’s most volatile position. If it’s anything like last year, we’ll be in for a wild ride all season long.

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Let’s start with the closer power rankings:

Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 1 N/A
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 2 N/A
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 3 N/A
Pirates (Felipe Rivero) 4 N/A
Blue Jays (Roberto Osuna) 5 N/A
Astros (Ken Giles) 6 N/A
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 7 N/A
Brewers (Corey Knebel) 8 N/A
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 9 N/A
Indians (Cody Allen) 10 N/A
Padres (Brad Hand) 11 N/A
Rockies (Wade Davis) 12 N/A
Cardinals (Greg Holland) 13 N/A
Rays (Alex Colome) 14 N/A
Mets (Jeurys Familia) 15 N/A
Cubs (Brandon Morrow) 16 N/A
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 17 N/A
A’s (Blake Treinen) 18 N/A
Braves (Arodys Vizcaino) 19 N/A
Diamondbacks (Brad Boxberger) 20 N/A
Tigers (Shane Greene) 21 N/A
Royals (Kelvin Herrera) 22 N/A
Rangers (Keone Kela) 23 N/A
Phillies (Hector Neris) 24 N/A
Twins (Fernando Rodney) 25 N/A
Giants (Hunter Strickland) 26 N/A
Marlins (Brad Ziegler) 27 N/A
Angels (Blake Parker) 28 N/A
Orioles (Committee) 29 N/A
White Sox (Committee) 30 N/A

 

The Big Movers

As the season progresses, this section will be dedicated to recapping the closers who dramatically improved or worsened their stock in the previous week. But this is closers we’re talking about, so much closer jobs were already in flux before the actual games began. This is a position where a manager’s words can sometimes be as important as a blown save.

The biggest riser this week is Holland, who tied for second in baseball with 41 saves last year with the Rockies, while putting up a 3.61 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 10.99 K/9 rate. Holland’s performance has tailed off a bit over the last two seasons, but he’s still a proven commodity with the potential for dominance.

He’s joining a team that is likely to contend and plays its home games in one of the league’s best pitcher’s parks, and the $14 million contract he’ll receive for 2018 removes any doubt that he will be the Cardinals’ unquestioned closer. Relievers don’t need a ton of time to get ready, so while he’s likely to make a few minor league appearances first, Holland should be closing games for St. Louis by the middle of April.

Holland’s signing overshadowed the big news from earlier in the week that Brad Boxberger will begin the season as the closer in Arizona. While he often fell too far in drafts, Boxberger always seemed like a serious contender to assume closer duties because Archie Bradley’s versatility and dominant stuff make him more valuable to the Diamondbacks in a more flexible role. Boxberger has always struggled with walks, and he’s missed large parts of the last two seasons due to injury, so it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll hold down the closer job all year. But if the Diamondbacks are forced to make a change, it may well be Yoshihisa Hirano — not Bradley — who inherits the ninth.

While a Leone was losing a closer job in St. Louis, a Keone was gaining a closer job in Texas…Keone Kela, that is. While Kela has struggled with walks at times, he has the kind of filthy stuff necessary to last in the role long term.

Manager Jeff Bannister did mention Kevin Jepsen as a second option to close games to prevent Kela from being overworked, but that isn’t a concern for closers, particularly closers on teams that don’t project to be holding a ton of leads to begin with. Jepsen is a name to file away in case Kela can’t handle the role, but he shouldn’t be a big drag on Kela’s fantasy value as long as Kela gets the job done.

Hector Neris saved 26 games for the Phillies last year, and for the most part, he looked good doing it. Although he was briefly removed from the closer role, he finished the season with a 3.01 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 10.37 K/9 rate. There was little reason to think anyone else would be seeing save chances in Philadelphia this year until Thursday, when manager Gabe Kapler reportedly declined to say who would pitch the ninth if the Phillies have a lead.

Perhaps Kapler was just being coy, but Neris didn’t help himself by entering a tie game in the bottom of the ninth on Opening Day and proceeding to give up a game-winning three-run homer to Nick Markakis. Neris could ascend back up the rankings relatively quickly if he nails down a few saves in a row, but until that happens, his owners will have to sweat it out. Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter are both on the DL, so Neris should at least get a week or two to prove he’s the man for the job.

Following a nice four-year run as an upper-tier closer, Mark Melancon struggled through a forearm injury last year that ultimately led to season-ending surgery. Now Melancon is back on the disabled list due to a recurrence of pain and inflammation in his forearm. Giants manager Bruce Bochy optimistically stated that he hopes to have Melancon back within a couple of weeks, but this sure has the look of an issue that could keep Melancon out much longer than that.

Sam Dyson has closer experience, but he was also completely awful last year, so the Giants wisely opted to give Hunter Strickland a shot in the role. Strickland hasn’t exactly been dominant in any of his first three big league seasons, but he’s indeed been solid — and he aced his first save chance on Opening Day.

Many managers say they will use a closer-by-committee, but few managers follow through with it for more than a week or two. If there were ever a manager who would genuinely employ a committee, though, it would be Mike Scioscia, who has plenty of job security and steadfastly refused to name a closer for much of last season. So, while the Orange County Register‘s Jeff Fletcher believes Blake Parker “likely enters the season as the first choice to pitch the ninth inning,” Parker’s name should be written in pencil, not ink, unless we hear confirmation from Scioscia himself.

Parker was terrific last year, but he hadn’t had much Major League success before that — and he struggled mightily in Spring Training. So even if he gets the first save chance, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be able to hold onto the job. Jim Johnson and Cam Bedrosian (who struggled on Opening Day) are other options at Scioscia’s disposal.

Random Musings

Once you get outside the top 13 closers or so, you start to encounter pitchers who have three types of major question marks hanging over their heads: 1) job security, 2) trade risk, or 3) injury risk. Brandon Morrow and Arodys Vizcaino are examples of closers who could be very good all year — or could lose their jobs to flame-throwing set-up men (Carl Edwards Jr. and A.J. Minter, respectively).

Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera have decent track records of success, but they are logical trade candidates — and may end up as set-up men with their new teams. And Sean Doolittle would be much higher up the rankings if we knew he could hold up for an entire season without succumbing to injury.

Fernando Rodney and Brad Ziegler are the closers that nobody wants, but at least they have short-term job security — and that counts for something in leagues where the save chase is fierce. You’ll have to live with some blow-up potential — Rodney gave up a walk-off homer on Opening Day — but they’re worth owning if you need saves. That said, I’d be much happier owning them if I can pair them with Addison Reed and Kyle Barraclough, respectively.

Brad Brach was a reasonably popular choice in fantasy drafts, but he’ll reportedly have to share closing duties with Darren O’Day and Mychal Givens. Brach blew the save on Opening Day, and while he was a bit unlucky in that contest, we just can’t take for granted that he’ll get the next opportunity. The likely return of Zach Britton in June also looms over Brach’s rest-of-season outlook.

Nate Jones and Joakim Soria are both expected to see save chances for the rebuilding White Sox, and Juan Minaya could factor into the mix as well. Any of the three could ultimately be traded if they are successful, although Jones seems like the most likely option to be closing games for Chicago in the second half of the season.

Raisel Iglesias is on paternity leave to begin the season, but he should only miss three days. The Reds don’t have a ready-made backup closer, so there’s no point in trying to chase saves here in the meantime.

Ken Giles, Edwin Diaz, and Corey Knebel all had somewhat rocky debuts on Opening Day (only Knebel blew a save). It’s far too early to start worrying about their job security, but let this serve as a reminder that even some of the top-10 closers are probably going to struggle with consistency. So it goes at baseball’s most volatile position.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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