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Fantasy Baseball Middle Reliever Targets: Week 1

Fantasy Baseball Middle Reliever Targets: Week 1

The standard fantasy baseball manager will spend the season’s beginning days carefully monitoring unclear closing situations. Those in holds leagues must widen their scope to the entire bullpen in search of MLB’s top relievers.

With teams in less of a hurry to declare an official ninth-inning man, more leagues should consider adding holds or tweaking the current category to saves-plus-holds. This makes everyone fantasy relevant without succumbing solely to the whims of an occasionally out-of-touch manager. Plus, deeper leagues are more fun.

An overwhelming amount of attention goes to chasing saves, but this column returns for a second year to highlight players who can contribute holds, strikeouts, and ratio help. Having a path to the ninth inning is an added bonus rather than a requirement. In the opening installment, all but one of these five middle relievers are blocked by an upper-tier stopper. Since most Yahoo leagues follow a typical five-by-five scoring format, guys with an ownership percentage of 10 percent or higher are assumed to be rostered in any competitive holds league. Grab A.J. Minter, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, or Emilio Pagan first if still available.

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Drew Steckenrider (MIA): 5 Percent Owned
This isn’t my first time writing about Drew Steckenrider, but I don’t understand how he’s owned in just 5 percent of Yahoo leagues while Kyle Barraclough carries a 34 ownership percentage.

A velocity dip depreciated Barraclough’s strikeout percentage from 36.9 to 26.6, which won’t cut it from someone with a bloated 1.38 WHIP due to a 13.3 walk percentage. Only 59.2 percent of his pitches were strikes. While Steckenrider submitted an identical WHIP, his should improve if he matches last year’s 65.8 strike percentage (68.2 percent on first pitches). While Barraclough is seen as a strikeout specialist, his teammate notched a higher K rate (35.8 %) with more swinging strikes (13.2 %).

Why is this important? Brad Ziegler is a 38-year-old closer with an average sinker velocity of 83 mph who amassed 26 strikeouts last season. Opponents hit .302 against him, so the righty is not long for the ninth-inning role. The smart money is on him abdicating the seat by May, and Steckenrider is currently the more interesting saves stash unless Barraclough suddenly makes friends with the strike zone. Even if a change takes longer, Steckenrider will pile up the punchouts with some holds as the seventh- or eighth-inning option.

Kirby Yates (SD): 3 Percent Owned
A popular player in this column last year, Kirby Yates betrayed that trust by relinquishing nine walks and 14 runs over 10.1 atrocious August innings. That horrible stretch obscured four stellar months in his end-of-season 3.97 ERA and 3.92 FIP. A daring deep-league manager searching for strikeouts and holds should give him another chance.

Yates sported a 1.71 ERA before surrendering six runs on Aug. 6. Despite his season’s downturn, his 38.1 strikeout percentage placed among MLB’s elite relievers:

Rank Player K%
1 Craig Kimbrel 49.6
2 Kenley Jansen 42.3
3 Chad Green 41.0
4 Corey Knebel 40.8
5 Andrew Miller 38.9
6 Dellin Betances 38.3
7 Kirby Yates 38.1
8 Tommy Kahnle 37.5
9 David Robertson 37.1

He backed up that K rate with a 17.4 percent swinging-strike rate that ranked third behind the elite trio of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and … James Hoyt? (Side note: Keep tabs on Hoyt. His 31.3 K percentage and 2.82 SIERA don’t match the 4.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.) Yates’s changeup yielded an insane 72.5 strikeout percentage and .279 OPS, but opponents fared much better against his more frequently utilized slider (.928 OPS). After getting clobbered in August, he adjusted by tabling the ineffective slider for more fastballs and changeups. He rebounded with a 1.80 ERA, 14 strikeouts, and one walk in September.

Although he’s highly erratic, it’s better to bet on someone with elite skills over a boring middle reliever indistinguishable from the vast batch of waiver wire alternatives. If he avoids another major setback, Yates could emerge as an elite setup man in San Diego.

Joe Smith (HOU): 3 Percent Owned
Joe Smith is 34 with a fastball velocity that tops out below 90. He’s so forgettable that I forgot that he signed with the Astros before researching this column. Use that blandness to scoop up a valuable middle reliever off the waiver wire.

The sidearmer set career highs in strikeout (33.2) and walk (4.7) percentage last year to post a 28.5 K-BB percentage that more than doubled his 12.7 career clip. It also ranked eighth among qualified relievers. Anyone dubious of these sudden gains may reconsider after observing more personal bests in his first-pitch strike (67.3) and swinging-strike (11.4) percentages. Smith threw more sliders than any season since 2009, and the pitch yielded a .016 ISO.

With Brad Peacock pushed to a stacked bullpen, Smith could conceivably be the fifth- or sixth-man on the food chain. Yet if he sustains last year’s breakout, he could also rack up holds as a high-leverage option for the defending champions. Heck, there’s even a non-zero chance he winds up closing if postseason Ken Giles returns.

Carson Smith (BOS): 3 Percent Owned
Drafters also forgot about Carson Smith, who allowed one run over eight innings (including one postseason outing) in his return from Tommy John surgery. If healthy, he’ll become a major player in holds formats.

When last seen over a full season, Smith registered a 2.31 ERA, 92 strikeouts, and a 64.8 ground-ball percentage over 70 innings in 2015, which ended with him closing games for Seattle. Boston acquired him with designs of securing a top setup man, and the 28-year-old may finally fill that role ahead of Craig Kimbrel. He has built momentum with 12 strikeouts and two runs allowed over nine spring frames.

While Smith remains a big wild card, managers won’t find many unclaimed eighth-inning men on playoff teams. There’s little cost to cut him if he struggles or gets hurt, but a strong start will quickly put him back on everyone’s radar.

Scott Alexander (LAD): 1 Percent Owned
Most middle relievers with a 20.9 strikeout percentage draw an automatic pass. Scott Alexander, however, is not the typical reliever.

He doesn’t ring up enough batters, especially not to justify a 1.30 WHIP. Yet don’t assume his 2.48 ERA will regress to his 3.23 FIP because a resounding 73.8 percent of his batted balls resulted in grounders. Ziegler and Zach Britton are the only other hurlers to exceed 70 percent since 2012. Adding to his novelty, the lefty threw his sinker over 93 percent of the time.

While the 28-year-old had failed to latch onto Kansas City’s bullpen before 2017, he was diagnosed with diabetes during the 2016 season. Now he’s working at full strength, and the Dodgers took notice. The reigning NL champs acquired Alexander in a three-team offseason trade to play an important role in their bridge to Kenley Jansen. He limited righties to a lower wOBA (.281) than lefties (.303), but could nevertheless post a crooked holds tally as a contender’s premier southpaw. A 12.8 swinging-strike rate could also portend a few more strikeouts alongside a strong ERA.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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