This season’s Opening Day is unique for many reasons, but the one most pressing to Fantasy Baseball owners is that it happens to fall on a Thursday. This Thursday to be specific. In contrast, the past three years, Opening Day has taken place on a Sunday, gently easing us into the season with one or three games respectively – not so in 2018. We’re being thrust into the thick of it with all 30 teams suiting up on the 29th, the first time that’s happened since 1968.
So what does that mean for two-start pitchers in Week 1? Well, it basically means that’s now a very generous term. A majority of season-long leagues will consider March 29th to April 8th as Week 1. That’s 11 days of baseball. That’s a whole lot of prospective starts. Now, obviously we know very little about teams’ exact rotations to start the season, not to mention a high prevalence of off-days to kick off the year, but, with 11 days, we can assume almost every top-end pitcher will be throwing twice in that time frame. In fact, of the 75 SP-eligible pitchers on Yahoo! currently owned at over 40% – only three have any question to reach that threshold. Let’s get into it.
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Who Might Not Have Two-Starts?
Shohei Ohtani (SP – LAA)
As of writing this, the Angels have yet to decide much beyond Garrett Richards starting Opening Day and Tyler Skaggs getting the call on Friday (Editor’s note: The Angels have announced that Ohtani will get his first start on Sunday vs. Oakland.). That mystery is clearly the biggest question mark surrounding Ohtani’s likelihood of making two starts in this extended week. Also, you know, he hasn’t pitched that well in Spring Training and there have been some Triple-A rumors flying around. That bodes poorly too. Still, when Los Angeles does announce the rest of their rotation, I fully expect Ohtani to be in it, due mostly to his skill, yet somewhat because of Andrew Heaney’s injury. Plus, depending on where he’s slotted, Ohtani could have a huge strikeout week. The Angels play the Athletics in seven of their 10 games. While the trio of Khris Davis, Matt Olson, and Matt Chapman have massive amounts of power, they should also strikeout in roughly 30% of their plate appearances this season. I’d be inclined to take a chance on the rookie even with murky scheduling.
Zack Godley (SP – ARI)
Taijuan Walker (SP – ARI)
Similar to the Angels situation, it’s not entirely clear the order that Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo will choose for the back-end of his rotation in Week 1. We know that Patrick Corbin will start Opening Day against the Rockies. We also know that Robbie Ray will take the hill for Friday’s affair. That’s really all that’s set in stone. It seems Zack Greinke, who suffered a small setback in Spring Training, is trending in the right direction to start Arizona’s third game of the year, but that’s just speculative. Unlike the Angels situation, the D-Backs only have nine games spanning the 11-day first week of the fantasy season. That leaves either Godley or Walker, if Greinke goes, with just a single start. Both are immensely talented and Godley specifically has almost reached the point of matchup-proof with his elite combination of swinging strike rate and ground ball rate. However, with that lone start definitely taking place against the Dodgers, I’d be benching whichever of the pair is slotted into the de facto “fifth starter” role.
Three-Start Options
Cole Hamels (SP – TEX) (03/29 vs. HOU, 04/03 @OAK, 04/08 vs. TOR)
Yeah. Three starts. Texas is one of two teams to draw the short straw and begin 2018 with 11-straight games (actually 14, but those last three are Week 2’s problem). Hamels, who has already been named the Opening Day starter, will take the mound in three of the 11, which might be a welcome sight for your counting stat totals and little else considering his inconsistent 2017 campaign. A .251 BABIP kept a bad season from being a horrible one for Hamels, who, if we’re looking to be optimistic, did suffer through some injuries. Still, it was the sudden loss of strikeouts that was the most jarring aspect of it all. The now 34-year-old managed just 4.91 strikeouts per nine over his first 51.1 innings. While that figure climbed to a more respectable 7.17 in the season’s second-half, it was nowhere close to his career numbers. Volume is a clear solution to this issue, yet the ratios could get a bit dicey with powerful, right-handed heavy lineups like Houston, Oakland, and Toronto on the docket. Roll with Hamels for the strikeouts, win potential and sheer novelty.
Kendall Graveman (SP – OAK) (03/29 vs. LAA, 04/03 vs. TEX, 04/08 @LAA)
The Athletics are the other team with a full 11-game slate in Week 1, and Graveman is actually slated to oppose the aforementioned Hamels next Tuesday in Oakland. Again, volume is the allure here with a three-start week the rarest of rare occasions in Fantasy Baseball. The question you must ask moreso with Graveman than Hamels is: does quantity matter when the quality is suspect? Now, Graveman is not completely devoid of positives. Despite his current 3% ownership on Yahoo!, there are reasons to get excited. He’s a proven groundball pitcher with the ability to keep the ball in the park and his sinker did see a slight uptick in velocity last season. On the flip side, of the 92 pitchers with 250-plus innings since the start of 2016, only Martin Perez has a lower K/9. It feels as if Graveman needs to finish out the week with at least two wins to have any value, especially considering most top-tier SP could garner more strikeouts than the righty in one start, let alone the two they’ll all have. I’d steer clear. Beyond everything else, that’s a lot of Mike Trout to deal with in a single week.
Streaming Options Under 20% Owned
Ivan Nova (SP – PIT) (03/29 @DET, 04/04 vs. MIN)
Nova has struggled the past two seasons with left-handed hitters. Severely. He’s allowed lefties to hit to a huge .361 wOBA over the course of 659 plate appearances. His 12.9% strikeout rate against left-handers over that span is the third lowest of any qualified pitcher. Luckily for him, Detroit’s roster is made up almost entirely of right-handed bats, well, at least the major league caliber hitters are mainly batting from the right side. Minnesota will present a far different challenge, but at least that game will be at PNC, where Nova’s 3.73 FIP was over a full run better than his mark on the road.
Brandon McCarthy (SP – ATL) (03/31 vs. PHI, 04/06 @COL)
I understand if you didn’t even read past “@COL.” That’s a fair instinct especially in a week with so many projected innings already on your roster. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that McCarthy’s skill set, or at least the one he showed last season, is the perfect strategy for not only pitching at Coors Field but pitching anywhere. Barrelled baseballs are the enemy and no pitcher allowed fewer per plate appearance in 2017 than McCarthy who surrendered only four in 282 batted ball events. Plus, he’s healthy. It’s rare you can make that claim about the veteran, so you might as well take advantage while you can.
Nick Pivetta (SP – PHI) (03/30 @ATL, 04/04 @NYM)
Vince Velasquez (SP – PHI) (03/31 @ATL, 04/05 vs. MIA)
Let’s call the theme of this particular paragraph: streaming for strikeouts. Pivetta managed 140 in 133 innings last season, while Velasquez is sitting at 9.67 per nine for his career. Now, it would also be an understatement to say both have sporadic control and could each single-handedly destroy your ERA or WHIP in any given start, but again, strikeouts. According to FanGraphs, the Braves, the Mets, and the Marlins all project to score fewer than 4.5 runs per game – with Miami scoring the fewest overall at only 4.06 per contest. The matchups are there to offset the worry. I’d roll the dice, specifically with Velasquez.
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
