There are high-risk players all over the place in fantasy baseball, but a lot of them seem to hang out in the outfield. Whether it’s inexperience, past injury history, or concerns in production, the outfield is a risky place this season.
A rookie who hasn’t even recorded a Major League at-bat is being taken within the top-100 picks in some drafts. On top of that, a highly talented, yet highly inconsistent youngster has been taken within the top-50 in some drafts, just because of a two-month hot stretch to end the 2017 season.
The below four outfielders could be one of the key cogs to your success this season. Or, they could be the reason you fail to meet expectations.
Get award-winning advice with our fantasy baseball tools 
Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
I tried really hard to not put the slugger formerly known as Mike Stanton here, but it just made too much sense. What Stanton did last season was nothing short of amazing. He finished just one home run shy of being the first hitter since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa in 2001 to join the 60-homer club and added 132 RBIs and 123 runs just for fun. We had been waiting for a season like this from Stanton and he finally delivered.
Now, this isn’t the first time Stanton has been looked at as a first-round fantasy talent. Or even the second or third time. Every time Stanton has been drafted within the top 20 picks or so, he’s let us down. Before his 2017 breakout, his previous career-bests all came in 2014 when he had 37 home runs, 105 RBIs, and 89 runs.
That 2014 season was one of only three seasons that Stanton has exceeded 500 at-bats during his eight-year career. Now, I know some of those were out of his control. It’s not his fault when a fastball breaks a bone in his wrist. Regardless, staying on the field has been a constant issue for Stanton throughout his career and makes him a risky selection as a top-10 pick.
Stanton could put up another monster season and crank 60+ dingers with the help of Yankee Stadium, or he could have another season filled with annoying injuries and be the biggest bust of the first-round. Basically, the epitome of a high risk/high reward pick.
And yes, as much as I hate to admit it, Bryce Harper fits that mold, too.
A.J. Pollock (OF – ARI)
Just like with Stanton, injuries have put a cap on Pollock’s production over his career. He’s only had one season over 500 at-bats back in 2015. Just one. But in that season, he was able to put everything together and show off his All-Star caliber offensive upside. Pollock finished with 20 home runs, 76 RBIs, 111 runs, and 39 steals with a .315/.367/.498/.865 slash line.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t even sniffed numbers close to that 2015 line since then. With only 41 at-bats, 2016 was a total lost season. Then in 2017, Pollock bounced back to a degree with a .266 average, 14 homers, and 20 steals, but once again, was limited to only 425 at-bats.
The upside is 2015, but are you willing to spend a top-75 pick on a guy with more injury-shortened seasons than healthy, productive ones?
Ronald Acuna (OF – ATL)
Wait, a super-human stud prospect like Acuna is a risky selection? As much as I hate to say it, yes, he is. If you want to secure Acuna’s services for the upcoming season, you’re going to need to jump and take him in the first 8-10 rounds, likely inside the top-100 in most cases. That’s a high price to pay for a player that has never even taken a single Major League at-bat. Even a player with superstar upside like Acuna.
Acuna has been a one-man wrecking ball since the start of the 2017 season. Across three minor league levels, he slashed .325/.374/.522/.896 with 21 home runs and 44 steals. He followed that up with another .325 average, seven dingers, and two steals across 83 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League.
But wait! There’s more!
So far in Spring Training, Acuna has hit a robust .410 with four homers and four steals in 39 at-bats. He’s what nightmares are made of for pitchers. However, as I mentioned earlier, he’s yet to take his first at-bat in a Major League regular season game. We’ve seen plenty of young players come up and dominate right away in recent years, like Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant, but just as many have taken time to find their footing, ala Byron Buxton.
You just never know when it comes to prospects debuting and that adds some risk to go along with a potentially massive reward. You also need to factor in the “seasoning” he’ll need until the super-two deadline passes in mid-April, so the Braves can lock up another year of team control.
Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)
Speaking of Buxton, he’s even more risky to draft than Acuna this season due to his higher ADP and sporadic production so far in the Major Leagues. Per 600 at-bats, Buxton has averaged 19 home runs and 28 steals. Though, that’s come with a lackluster .237/.295/.406/.701 slash line and 31.8 K%.
We all know how talented Buxton is. Before Acuna went postal on minor league pitchers, the hot prospect name was Buxton. Just a few short seasons ago, he was the undisputed prospect champion of the world. Hitting bombs, swiping bags, kicking butt, and taking names. However, the uber-talented Buxton hasn’t been able to kick pitcher’s butts for longer than a couple weeks at a time.
Last season, that hot stretch came over the last two months of the season. From August 1st on, Buxton racked up 11 home runs, 13 steals, 35 RBIs, and 39 runs with a .298 average and .541 slugging. That hot finish to the season hiked up his ADP this season to 60. 60! That’s insane. If he had that hot stretch in May/June instead of ending the season with it, do you think his ADP would still be 60? I think not.
Buxton has top-50 upside written all over him. Heck, maybe even top-25 upside. However, the risk that comes with drafting him is monumental. Are you willing to endure the tough months where he hits near the Mendoza line?
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play
Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @EricCross04.
