The free-agent market took longer than usual to take shape this offseason, but things have picked up a bit of late. Of course, that doesn’t mean all notable free agents have found homes yet. Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, Greg Holland, John Lackey, Lance Lynn, Jonathan Lucroy, Jose Bautista, Lucas Duda, and Mike Moustakas are a handful of players with varying fantasy-baseball appeal who’ve yet to sign with a team. You can find a full list of this off-season’s free agents and where they landed (as well as who has yet to sign) at MLBTradeRumors.com. Initially, this was going to be just one piece. However, the sheer volume of players included resulted in two separate pieces. I previously covered pitchers, and you can read that piece here. Below are the hitters who signed as free agents this offseason.
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Catchers
Chris Iannetta (COL)
Welington Castillo (CWS)
Alex Avila (ARI)
This is a rather impressive trio of catchers who all project to see the lion’s share of starts for their new clubs. All three crack my top-10 catchers for this year. Despite Avila owning the high-water mark for plate appearances last year among the three, all of them hit between 14 and 20 homers, and Iannetta owned the lowest — yet still palatable for the position — batting average at .254. Avila and Iannetta are especially enticing options in leagues that use OBP as they tallied OBPs of .387 and .354, respectively, last season. Regarding Avila, it’s worth noting that playing home games at Chase Field this year doesn’t project to be as fruitful as it’s been in season’s past due to the introduction of a humidor. Regardless, he’s a starting option in single-catcher mixed leagues. Ditto for Castillo and Iannetta.
First Basemen
Carlos Santana (PHI)
Eric Hosmer (SD)
Logan Morrison (MIN)
Yonder Alonso (CLE)
Alonso and LoMo had late-career breakouts in their age-30 and age-29/30 seasons. Both ditched ground-ball approaches in favor of joining all the cool kids in the “elevate-and-celebrate” crowd. Prior to last year, Alonso slugged only 39 homers in 2,343 plate appearances in the Majors. Last season, he ripped 28 bombs in 521 plate appearances. Before 2017, Morrison smacked 84 homers in 2,753 plate appearances. Last year, he set a career high with 38 long balls (previous high was 23 in 2011). Of the two, I slightly prefer Alonso more than LoMo thanks in large part to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions for left-handed batters at Progressive Field. Each is better suited for corner infield usage in standard leagues than to be leaned on as starters at first base, but I’m buying both retaining a significant chunk of their breakout performances.
Santana and Hosmer go from playing in the American League Central with the Indians and Royals, respectively, to signing to play in the National League. Santana gets a park factor downgrade playing home games at Citizens Bank Park now, but his new digs amplify homers by the second highest amount in the Show. Hosmer also downgrades park factors from a run-scoring perspective, but he, too, gets a lift in home run park factor. Unfortunately for Hosmer, the homer park factor bump for left-handed batters at PETCO Park compared to Kauffman Stadium is nearly negligible (0.894 compared to 0.868).
Santana is a better option in leagues that use OBP instead of average thanks to his gaudy walk rates (13.2% BB% last year and 15.2% BB% for his career), but he’s hit exactly .259 in back-to-back seasons, so he’s not a total drag on average in the same mold of a Chris Davis, for instance. While power was up across the Bigs last year, the switch-hitting veteran’s homer total actually substantially dropped from 34 in 2016 to 23 last season. Steamer and ZiPS project him to settle in between those totals with 27 or 28 homers. He’s not a big base stealer, but Santana has stolen five bases in three of the last four years and managed to steal 11 bases in the outlier season. He should also be a helpful contributor in run production categories, and he’s a low-end option at first base or excellent corner infield option in standard mixers.
Hosmer has hit exactly 25 homers in back-to-back years, but his average has bounced around with his BABIP jumping from .266 in 2016 with a .301 BABIP to .318 with a .351 BABIP in 2017. The BABIP jump and accompanying average jump last year were aided by a steep increase in LD% (16.5% to 22.2%), and a more balanced batted ball distribution that saw him trade some pulled balls (36.1% Pull% in 2016 and 31.3% Pull% in 2017) for going the other way (29.4% Oppo% in 2016 and 32.9% Oppo% in 2017), per FanGraphs. While many hitters such as the aforementioned Alonso and LoMo have taken to the air for more power, Hosmer continues to be allergic to fly balls with a sub-25% FB% last year for the third straight year and fourth time in the last five years. Like Santana, Hosmer has done a solid job of chipping in stolen bases with five or more in three straight seasons and a half-dozen stolen bases last year. He, too, should be a helpful source of run-scoring production. He’s a well-rounded contributor who can help across the board and is a startable option at first base in standard mixers. Furthermore, there’s potential for much more if Hosmer should be willing to lift the ball more. Having said that, there have been no indications of a forthcoming swing change, so it’s best to proceed with the expectation of more of the same from him.
Second Basemen
Dustin Pedroia is on the mend from offseason surgery on his left knee, and he’ll open the year on the disabled list. The Red Sox re-signed Nunez, and he projects to open the season at the keystone position while Pedroia is out. When Pedroia returns, Nunez will likely be relegated to a utility role. Nunez could have been featured at another position in this piece as he played 16 games (15 starts) at shortstop, 21 games (18 starts) in the outfield, 53 games (51 starts) at third base, and 26 games (25 starts) at second base last year. His versatility is an asset to his real-life employer and fantasy gamers, but a part-time role when the Red Sox are completely healthy does cap his upside. Even in a part-time capacity, he’s rosterable in standard leagues thanks to his base-stealing prowess (40 stolen bases in 2016 and 24 last year). Base stealing isn’t the only reason to roster him, either. Over the last two years combined, he’s slashed .299/.332/.445 with 28 homers in 1,086 plate appearances.
Third Basemen
Frazier split last year between the White Sox and Yankees, and he remained a useful source of homers with 27 in 576 plate appearances. The homers represented a three-year low (35 in 2015 and 40 in 2016), his average cratered to a career-low .213 (after he sported a career-low .225 average the year before), and he stole only four bases after stealing 20 in 2014, 13 in 2015, and 15 in 2016. The nosedive in batting average is problematic, especially with power more widely available. Although, gamers in OBP leagues should take note of his walk rates the last two years. In 2016, he set a then career high with a 9.6% BB%. Last year, he crushed that mark with a 14.4% BB% that fueled a new single-season high OBP (.344). Frazier’s new found high walk rate is probably a huge motivating factor for the team considering him as a candidate to lead off. Hitting atop the order would enhance his upside for runs while hurting his RBI potential. That lineup assignment would also make his bad batting average all the more damaging, but it would award him more plate appearances to reach the seats. Frazier’s mixed bag of positives and negatives make him a player who won’t fit every roster build.
Shortstops
Cozart will move over to the hot corner with his new team, but he’s more valuable at shortstop in fantasy — where he’ll still be eligible this year. The former Red is coming off of a career year offensively in which he set new full-season highs in homers (24), runs (80), walk rate (12.2%), batting average (.297), OBP (.385), slugging (.548), ISO (.251), and tied a previous high of 63 RBI. Last year was the second in a row he set a new high for homers after swatting 16 the year before. His power surge actually started in an injury-shortened 2015 campaign in which he swatted nine homers with a .201 ISO in just 214 plate appearances. He’s since improved altogether as a hitter, and his 141 wRC+ last year looks just fine at the hot corner. I wouldn’t bank on him duplicating a career year, but I don’t foresee him giving all of his gains back, either. He does take a hit in home park factor for homers moving from Great American Ball Park (1.094 right-handed batter (RHB) park factor for homers) to Angel Stadium of Anaheim (0.997 for RHB homers), but he could still flirt with around 20 homers again this year. He’s a good target for middle infield in standard leagues.
Center Fielders
Carlos Gomez (TB)
Jarrod Dyson (ARI)
Lorenzo Cain (MIL)
Cameron Maybin (MIA)
Curtis Granderson (TOR)
Leonys Martin (DET)
Most leagues don’t differentiate between outfield positions, but in the interest of breaking up the analysis of all three outfield positions a bit, I’ve done so here. Speed is the dominant theme among the free-agent signees in center field. Cain (26 stolen bases), Dyson (28 stolen bases), and Maybin (33 stolen bases) all surpassed 25 stolen bases last year. I already highlighted Cain as a player to target for steals, but I’ll add that his well-rounded contributions, new hitter-friendly home digs, likely run-production friendly lineup spot, and the offensive upside of his new team’s lineup have pushed him to OF19 in my current outfielder rankings.
Maybin looks like the second most desirable fantasy option in the outfield out of these half-dozen center fielders, albeit a distant second behind Cain. He’s in line for an everyday gig with the rebuilding Marlins, and his 33 stolen bases last year were the fifth highest total in MLB. Power isn’t a big part of his game, but his 10 homers in 450 plate appearances did allow him to chip in. Maybin’s a career .255 hitter with a .316 BABIP, but the BABIP gods frowned upon him last year (.274), and the result was a wretched .228 average. As a speedster with a track record for better results on balls in play, Maybin should bounce back closer to his career mark, but he’s unlikely to be an asset in that category. If you need speed, Maybin’s worth a look.
Gomez is no longer the electric fantasy option he once was, but he’s tallied back-to-back seasons of reaching the teens in homers and steals. Granderson still has some thump in his bat and is coming off of a 26-homer campaign. He’s a batting average drag, and he’ll probably only steal a handful of bases, but he has some deep league appeal. Dyson is a fourth outfielder who is streamable for stolen bases if any of the starters in front of him miss time.
Martin was dreadful last year with the Mariners and Cubs. He was so bad that the M’s designated him for assignment, twice. In 88 games and 388 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, Martin hit .306/.346/.492 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, good for a 114 wRC+. He’s just a year removed from hitting .247/.306/.378 with 15 homers and 24 stolen bases for the Mariners in 2016, so there’s some potential for a rebound with the rebuilding Tigers. Martin doesn’t need to be drafted in anything but deeper leagues, but if he shows signs of life early, he could be worth an add for his above-average ability stealing bases.
Left Field
Upton hit .273/.361/.540 with 35 homers, 100 runs, 109 RBI, and 14 stolen bases in 635 plate appearances split between the Tigers (520 plate appearances) and Angels (115). Technically, Upton might not belong in this piece. He had an opt-out clause in a six-year contract he’d signed with the Tigers, but as opposed to opting out with four years remaining on the deal, he and the Angels agreed to a new five-year deal. He hit .245/.357/.531 with seven homers, four stolen bases, a 14.8% BB%, and 28.7% K% in 27 games and 115 plate appearances after being acquired by the Angels last year. Back with the Angels, I have him ranked inside the top-20 outfielders.
Right Field
J.D. Martinez (BOS)
Jay Bruce (NYM)
Martinez is one of the game’s elite sluggers and set a new high with 45 bombs last year while slashing .303/.376/.690. Since breaking out in 2014, Martinez’s 128 homers are the 10th most in MLB. In that time frame, he’s slashed .300/.362/.574 in 2,143 plate appearances. He’s an elite hitter and a top-10 outfielder. Signing with the Red Sox will provide him ample run-production upside thanks to a talented lineup around him as well as hitter-friendly park factors for righties at Fenway Park.
Bruce is a traditional slugger who hits taters but owns a career .249 average. He returns to the Mets after being dealt to the Indians to close out last year. In 448 plate appearances with the Mets last season, he hit .256/.321/.520 with 29 homers. Overall, he smashed 36 homers with a .254/.324/.508 slash, 9.2% BB%, and 22.5% K%. He’ll provide gamers punch and run-production numbers, but you’ll want to look elsewhere for speed and average.
MLB Free Agency Recap: Pitchers
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
