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Pitchers with ZEILE Projections Worse Than Their ADP

Pitchers with ZEILE Projections Worse Than Their ADP

Last week, I wrote about pitchers who were being drafted later than their projections would have otherwise indicated. I determined this using two of FantasyPros’ resources: the consensus ADP and the ZEILE Projections. To determine the players, I took the sum of the z-scores for each of the five standard roto categories for pitchers to produce a set of rankings for starters. Then, comparing those ranks to the starters’ average ADP at the position, I found which players were seemingly being undervalued.

This week, I’m doing the same thing, except looking at pitchers who may be overvalued when looking at their projections. Below, I included five of the players who fit into this category and discuss whether or not they should be passed on in drafts.

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Madison Bumgarner (SP – SF)
The Giants ace might seem an odd candidate to end up on this list seeing as he’s been consistently great throughout his career. In his shortened 2017 season, though, despite posting a 3.32 ERA, Bumgarner’s fielding-independent numbers didn’t back it up. He was the owner of a 3.95 FIP and 4.07 xFIP, largely due to a 22.4 strikeout percentage that was more than five percentage points worse than his 2016 number.

The projections see his 2018 numbers somewhere in between, with a 3.43 ERA and 194 strikeouts, which would be his lowest in a full season since 2012. The 1.13 WHIP that he’s projected for would be similarly bad, representing his worst mark since 2011. Because of his 2017 peripherals, it’s difficult to say if the projections are being too harsh on him, ranking him as the 10th best starting pitcher by my methodology.

He’s going fifth among pitchers, right where he should be given the public perception of him. It’s close, but I’d lean more toward his ADP evaluation than the projections. 100 bad innings aren’t enough to dissuade me from a player.

Jose Berrios (SP – MIN)
It’s difficult to understand why exactly Berrios is currently going 25th among starters in the consensus ADP. He had a 3.89 ERA last year, right in line with his 3.84 FIP. He got quite lucky though on his fly balls, allowing just 9.1 percent of them to clear the fence, leading to a 4.51 xFIP. Given, he’s only 23, so I have no doubt that he’ll improve.

But will it be enough to overtake the likes of Alex Wood, Kyle Hendricks, and Marcus Stroman, all of whom are currently being taken after him? His strikeout rate is nothing special, and he’s unlikely to exceed 170 innings this year. He’s projected for a 4.16 ERA, which I think is probably a tad too high, but I agree for the most part with the projections that rank him as the 44th-best starting pitcher. You shouldn’t count on him to lead your staff, but he can be a tremendous asset as a fourth or fifth option.

Shohei Ohtani (SP/DH – LAA)
Unlike Berrios, it’s no surprise that Ohtani is being overvalued, at least according to the projections. He’s one of the most-hyped pitching prospects in years, but it’s important to remember that’s exactly what he is: a prospect. Ohtani has still yet to throw a pitch in the majors, and there have been more-highly-regarded players than Ohtani to not put it together on the big stage.

The projections agree with the hype, giving him a 3.48 ERA. The big issue is that he’s not expected to even reach 150 innings, which makes sense given his injury last year and the fact that he’s still only 23. In 180 innings, he might be deserving of his top-20 selection among pitchers, but that won’t be the case for at least another year, and we’ll have plenty more information by which to evaluate him at that point.

The projections have him as the 30th-best pitcher, for what it’s worth. It’s also important to remember that Ohtani’s pitching and hitting stats will be separated regardless of whether he’s treated as one player or two, so don’t be expecting dual production from him.

Lance McCullers (SP – HOU)
McCullers can hardly be considered a prospect at this point, although he’s also someone whose value is significantly affected by his projected innings. He’s expected to pitch just 142 innings, which would be the most he’s thrown in a Major League season for his career. He’s got the elite strikeout ability, as evidenced by his 156 projected strikeouts even in those limited innings.

However, he hasn’t figured out how to limit the walks, and he’s projected for a 1.31 WHIP as a consequence. When he’s at his best, there aren’t a lot of pitchers better than McCullers out there. The problem is he’s not on the field often enough, and even when he is, he doesn’t always live up to his potential.

If he can stay healthy and limit the walks, he’ll wildly outperform even his ADP, where he’s going 33rd among starting pitchers. I’m inclined to take a flier on him based on his talent alone, but don’t want to have to count on him.

Gerrit Cole (SP – HOU)
I’ll admit, I almost put Pittsburgh next to Cole’s name right there. Still haven’t internalized the fact that he’s on the Astros. Perhaps others haven’t yet either, as the fact that they still think he’s going to be pitching in the NL could account for some of the differential between where he’s being drafted and where the projections have him.

It’s not that much of a difference-he’s going 22nd, and the rankings have him 28th-but when you’re talking about a pick that early, there’s a lot of quality you’re passing up by taking him instead of someone else. Cole’s career has been up and down, so projecting him is tough-the 4.00 ERA for which he’s projected is 50 points above his career rate, but also 26 points less than his 2017 mark. Looking at the peripherals, the one number that jumps out is his home run per fly ball rate.

Prior to 2017, his career rate was 7.6 percent; in 2017, it was 15.9 percent. It can be argued both ways, whether he got unlucky last year or whether it was just regression to league average. I believe the former, and therefore agree with the masses in this case.

Pitchers with ZEILE Projections Better Than Their ADP

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Brian Reiff is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.

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