As much as we’d like to believe it, not all the players we draft or pick up during the season work out. It’d be nice if they did, but that’s not how it works. There are just as many, or even more, failed picks and busts than there are success stories you can tell your grandchildren one day. “You know, sonny boy, back in 2017, I drafted Aaron Judge in the 22^nd round and he went on to hit 52 home runs that year! Oh, those were the days.” However, for every Aaron Judge, there’s a Jurickson Profar or Chris Shelton waiting to fall flat on their face.

The list of players below are the guys I’m avoiding like the plague this year. That’s not to say they’re not worth drafting. They’re just not worth drafting at their current ADP. Let these guys be someone else’s headaches this season.

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Jake Lamb (3B – ARI)
For two straight seasons, Jake Lamb has played like an All-Star and top-5 third baseman through the first few months of the season. And for two straight seasons, Lamb wasn’t even worth rostering in the second half of the season.

 
You know the old saying, “The games you win in April are just as important as the games you win in September.” That may be true and all, but having a key part of your team tuck his tail between his legs and hide during the most important time of the season isn’t ideal by any stretch of the imagination. Any good Lamb does for your fantasy team in the first half gets neutralized by his Mendoza line average and power outage in the second half.

Now, you have to ask yourself one question when you draft Lamb; Do you feel lucky, punk? Damn it, Jim Carrey, get out of here. The real question is do you want to spend a top-125 pick on basically what has become a three-to-four month player?

Eric Thames (OF – MIL)
If only the Brewers played in the American League with the DH spot. That would make things a lot easier. After trading for Christian Yelich and signing Lorenzo Cain, the Brewers have five guys vying for four spots. Unfortunately for Eric Thames, he’s the low man on the totem pole when it comes to offensive talent, and he doesn’t provide enough defense to make up for it. The fact that he’s a liability against left-handed pitchers doesn’t help Thames’ case either.

 
The quartet of Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Yelich, and Cain all offer far superior offensive upside and figure to be the main guys occupying the outfield and first base. Thames will still likely get a few starts a week,  mostly against right-handers, but will likely not get enough playing time to provide impactful fantasy value.

He’s currently going off the board in the 160-220 range at pick 191 on average as the 1B-28. That might not seem high, but you can do much better in that range than a player slated to play two-to-three times a week. It’s best to just avoid Thames this season unless he or Santana are traded out of Milwaukee.

Kyle Schwarber (OF – CHC)
The outfield, non-catcher version of Kyle Schwarber isn’t nearly as valuable as he was when he had catcher eligibility. I know, Captain Obvious over here. Guilty as charged. Over parts of three seasons, Schwarber has cranked 46 home runs in 658 at-bats. That’s great and all until you see that .222 average that goes along with it. This isn’t 2014-15 anymore. A .220 average and 30-35 home runs aren’t as valuable as they used to be.

Now, there are some positives surrounding Schwarber coming into this season. He’s gotten into better shape and has simplified his swing, making it more compact through the zone. The early returns have been promising, too, as Schwarber has nine hits in his first 27 spring at-bats with three home runs and even three steals. Look at you, Kyle, you slimmed down stolen base machine.

Schwarber is currently going off the board just after pick 150, which doesn’t seem like a steep price to pay for a man with this type of power potential. However, as I mentioned in my National League spring training battles article, Schwarber is a defensive liability and limited to left field. He also has a rough time against southpaws and likely won’t get many starts against them.

As it currently stands, Schwarber figures to see around 400-450 AB while starting four-to-five games a week. And if the Cubs face a string of lefties one week, Schwarber might only get two starts plus pinch-hitting duties. I’m not saying to forget him altogether this season, but between the struggles against lefties and the cap on his playing time, there are better options around pick 150.

Sonny Gray (SP – NYY)
Let’s throw a pitcher into the mix, shall we? First and foremost, I hate Sonny Gray pitching in Yankee Stadium. In his limited time with the Yankees at the end of last season, Gray has a 1.5 HR/9 over 65.1 innings and his walk rate rose from 2.8 to 3.7. “But his ERA was still only 3.72 with New York!” Yeah, that’s because he was a tad lucky. His 4.87 FIP is much more indicative of what his ERA should’ve been.

Now, like I mentioned in the open, Gray is still worth rostering. But his current ADP of 120 is way too high. he’s being taken as the 32nd starting pitcher off the board ahead of guys like Lance McCullers, Luis Castillo, and Luke Weaver. With Gray’s ERA likely to be in the four range, he doesn’t strike out enough batters to be taken ahead of guys like that. If a pick in the 100-to-120 range is what it takes to secure Gray’s services in your draft, it’s probably best to pass on him for one of the higher upside arms around him.

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Eric Cross is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @EricCross04.