Sometimes, it behooves gamers to reach for certain players for one reason or another. The following players standout as my favorites to go out of your way to reach for. Their ADPs range from the early rounds to the later rounds.
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Christian Yelich (OF – MIL) – ADP: 50.2
Lorenzo Cain (OF – MIL) – ADP: 88.2
I’ve decided to clump Milwaukee’s two outfield off-season acquisitions together. I’ve previously highlighted the duo in MLB Players to Target for Steals (Fantasy Baseball), but their stolen base potential is just one part of the puzzle. They’ll both call hitter-friendly and homer-friendly Miller Park home this year.
Miller Park has the second highest park factor for homers and sixth highest park factor for runs scored for left-handed batters, as you can see in the sortable park factors page here. Right-handed batters are treated to the fifth highest park factor for homers and eighth highest park factor for runs, as you can see here. The lineup ranked middle of the road in wOBA last year, per FanGraphs, but Yelich and Cain should push them upward this year.
Yelich offers a desirable high floor and high ceiling. He’s a career .290/.369/.432 hitter and he’s bested 650 plate appearances in three of the last four years (his low mark in that time was 525 plate appearances in 2015). In the previous two years combined, he’s smacked 39 homers and stolen 25 bases while providing hearty contributions in runs and RBIs.
The left-handed hitting outfielder hits a ton of ground balls, and they’ve taken a sizable bite out of his homer output in his career to date, but his fly-ball rate is trending in the right direction and hit a single-season high 25.2% last year, according to FanGraphs. Now that he’s escaped homer-suppressing Marlins park, he has further incentive to lift the ball.
Probably unsurprisingly, Yelich hit a slightly higher percentage of balls in the air on the road last year (26.0% FB% away compared to 24.2% FB% at home). He’s also hit more balls in the air on the road than at home in his career (20.1% FB% on the road and 18.3% FB% at home). Yelich is my OF10, and he’s a strong OF1 option.
I have Cain ranked slightly lower at OF19, but he’s the better bargain of the two based on ADP. Cain has a higher stolen base ceiling (he’s exceeded 25 stolen bases in three of the last four years), and while he’s dealt with injuries at various times throughout his career, he’s bested 600 plate appearances in two of the last three years, setting a single-season high last year with 645. His low strikeout rates have helped him hit .300 or better in three of the last four years, and he’s reached the teens in homers in two of the last three seasons, too.
Spring Training lineups should probably be taken with a grain of salt, but a couple of Milwaukee’s lineups have featured Yelich hitting leadoff with Cain in the two-hole. As the table setters for the Brewers, Yelich and Cain would have significant run upside, and their helpful averages would be all the more useful thanks to the maximum number of at-bats available.
Chris Taylor (2B/SS/OF – LAD) – ADP: 113.2
Taylor is coming off of a breakout campaign in his age-26 season (he turned 27 in late August last year). The former Mariner swatted 21 homers in 568 plate appearances for the Dodgers after never reaching double-digit dingers in the minors. Before chalking up his homer explosion as flukey or merely a product of last year’s balls, it’s important to note Taylor, as Dave Roberts put it, “completely changed his swing mechanics.”
He parlayed his improved offense and defensive versatility into 140 games played and a career year at the dish. Taylor offered power (21 homers), speed (17 stolen bases), run production (85 runs and 72 RBIs), and a helpful average (.288). By the summer, he’d claimed the top spot in the lineup, and looking under the hood mostly validates Taylor’s breakout.
Add in Taylor’s positional versatility, and he’s grossly underrated. I have him ranked inside my top 75 players overall, but at this point, you probably don’t even need to reach that high to grab him.
Matt Olson (1B/OF – OAK) – ADP: 123.0
Matt Chapman (3B – OAK) – ADP: 310.7
Olson’s playing time was sporadic until Yonder Alonso was dealt to the Mariners in August. Olson stepped into an everyday role upon Alonso’s departure. From August 8 until the end of the season, the slugging first baseman hit .283/.365/.725 with a 9.0% BB%, 24.4% K%, 20 homers, a 46.4% FB%, 40.0% Hard%, 27.8% O-Swing%, and 13.2% SwStr% in 156 plate appearances, per FanGraphs.
It should go without saying, but Olson’s homer pace last year was unsustainable. Having said that, power is his calling card, and he has top-shelf power that resulted in the seventh highest average FB/LD exit velocity (98.0 mph) among hitters with a minimum of 30 batted ball events, according to Baseball Savant.
He complements his massive raw power with an outstanding approach at the dish, too. During his heater down the stretch, Olson didn’t merely fish out of the strike zone at a lower than league average rate (27.8% O-Swing% compared to a league average in 2017 of 29.9%). He also attacked pitches in the strike zone at a higher than league average rate (69.9% Z-Swing% compared to a league average of 66.7%).
By being aggressive in the strike zone, Olson’s able to offset his higher than league average SwStr% and keep his strikeout rate in check. Even when Olson’s homer pace regresses, his approach and ability to scald baseballs should keep his batting average out of the low .200s. I’m more optimistic about his batting average outlook than Steamer (.234) and ZiPS (.238), and I think he’ll hit north of .250.
Olson’s patience makes him an even more desirable option in OBP leagues as well, and it enhances his run-scoring upside. He rounds out his fantasy profile with the aforementioned 40-plus homer upside and a high RBI ceiling. Olson looks the part of an easy top-100 selection to me.
His teammate across the diamond is even more underrated. In 284 plate appearances in the second half, Chapman hit .250/.327/.516 with 14 homers, a 9.9% BB%, 25.4% K%, 25.2% O-Swing%, 10.4% SwStr%, 50.0% FB%, and 36.3% Hard%. Chapman wasn’t the LD/FB exit-velo darling Olson was last year, but out of the 540 players with 30 batted ball events, the third baseman’s average FB/LD velo of 95.0 mph was tied for the 50th highest. He has 30-plus homer potential, and his second-half slash is reasonable relative to his plate discipline and contact numbers.
While not a burner by any stretch, Chapman is more likely than Olson to swipe a few bags after stealing five bases at the Triple-A level in 49 games played last year and seven in 117 games at the Double-A level in 2016. At Chapman’s ADP outside the top 300, gamers have to risk very little for a soon-to-be 25-year-old third baseman with the potential for 30-plus homers.
Zack Godley (SP – ARI) – ADP: 114.8
Godley is SP30 in ADP, but he ranks as my SP22. The right-handed hurler is coming off of an impressive 2017 in which he recorded a 3.37 ERA that was validated by his 3.41 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, and 3.67 SIERA as well as his 3.14 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus, in 26 appearances (25 starts) spanning 155.0 innings. Among pitchers who threw at least 150 innings last year, Godley had the fourth highest GB% (55.3%), 15th highest strikeout rate (26.3% K%), and tied for the ninth highest SwStr% (13.3%).
Godley’s pitch mix resulted in an identical .285 wOBA allowed to lefties and righties last year. and his curveball is a hell of a put-away pitch that generated a 21.7% SwStr% in 2017, per FanGraphs. He and the rest of Arizona’s pitchers will get a pick-me-up this year from the installation of a humidor at Chase Field. As physics professor Alan Nathan wrote for The Hardball Times, the usage of a humidor at Chase Field projects to reduce homers substantially.
Godley allowed 1.07 HR/9 at home last year compared to 0.68 HR/9 on the road. A reduction in taters surrendered at home would be an obvious plus. I’d be comfortable drafting him as my SP2.
Charlie Morton (SP – HOU) – ADP: 181.8
Re-invented, harder-throwing Morton made 25 starts spanning 146.2 innings in the regular season last year in which he spun a 3.62 ERA that was supported by his 3.46 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 3.70 SIERA, and 3.46 DRA. “Ground Chuck” didn’t tally a GB% north of 60% as he had in previous seasons, but he still recorded a strong worm-burner percentage of 51.8% that ranked 12th highest among pitchers who totaled at least 140 innings last season. The dip in grounders was a completely worthwhile trade-off for a 26.4% K% that was 15th highest among pitchers who threw a minimum of 140 innings.
The biggest knock on Morton is his struggles to stay healthy throughout his career. Morton hasn’t bested 150 innings pitched since 2014, but his SP49 ADP goes overboard baking in his injury history. I’m currently the most bullish of the experts on Morton’s 2018 outlook ranking him as SP30, but even tempering expectations a pinch puts him firmly in the SP3/SP4 range.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
